Sweet Orange

Here is a quote from a recent e-mail that I received from William Lyon Homes. It touts a price reduction for a three-bedroom condo in the newly built Irvine community of Ivy in Woodbury East.

Add an Incredible Opportunity into the Story of Your Life
…Ivy at Woodbury East

Residence C - Lot 81
2-Story Townhome
Approx. 1,500 Sq. Ft.
3 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths
2-Car Garage

Private courtyard entry
Fireplace
Granite Kitchen countertops
Stainless steel kitchen appliances
Flush light package at Master Bedroom and Family Room

Priced at $469,990

However, the asking price for Resident C Ivy homes when they went on the market in July 2009 was $427,990. In August 2009, the price was increased to $439,990. Then in September 2009, the price was increased again to $441,990.

Are more ups and downs in store in the immediate future for the newly built Ivy homes (and the other new developments in Irvine)? We’ll see.

It is time to look at the Irvine housing numbers again. Up today is the 92620 ZIP, which includes Northwood, Northwood Pointe, Northwood II and Woodbury.

92620 Median Selling Price

• June 2010: $751,750 (up 33.7% y-o-y)
• May 2010: $666,000 (down 2.1% y-o-y)
• April 2010: $605,000 (up 10.0% y-o-y)
  For comparison: Redfin lists the April 2010 overall median selling price as $650,000 or $338 per square foot.
• March 2010: $637,500 (up 6.25% y-o-y)

92620 Number of Sales

• June 2010: 67 (up 21.4% y-o-y)
• May 2010: 48 (down 9.4% y-o-y)
• April 2010: 50 (up 78.6% y-o-y)
• March 2010: 59 (up 156.52% y-o-y)

Note: The photo is of 34 Lee, which is a 4-bedroom, single-family home in Irvine’s Northwood. This home has no HOA fee or Mellos Roos tax. At $749,900 ($311/SF), this home  is priced near the current median selling price of homes in this ZIP.

Source unless otherwise noted: DataQuick

Photo: South Coast Repertory, located in the cultural district of Costa Mesa’s South Coast Metro

Following is a history of the number of sales for homes in Costa Mesa by ZIP.

92626: South Coast Metro, Mesa Verde, part of Central Costa Mesa

• June 2010: 37 (down 2.6% from June 2009)
• May 2010: 26 (down 1.5% from May 2009)
• April 2010: 28 (down 6.7% from March 2009)
• March 2010:  32 (down 22.0% from March 2009)

92627: Eastside, Southwest, part of Central Costa Mesa

• June 2010: 43 (no change from June 2009)
• May 2010: 46 (up 4.5% from May 2009)
• April 2010: 30 (down 9.1% from April 2009)
• March 2010: 36 (up 24.1% from March 2009)

Source unless otherwise noted: DataQuick/OC Register

Following is a history of the median sales price for homes in Costa Mesa by ZIP.  The 92626 ZIP includes South Coast Metro, Mesa Verde, and part of Central Costa Mesa. The 92627 ZIP includes Eastside, Southwest and part of Central Costa Mesa.

92626

• June 2010: $530,750 (up 9.9% from June 2009)
• May 2010: $512,000 (down 1.5% from May 2009)
• April 2010: $512,250 (up 6.4% from April 2009)
  Note: For comparison, Redfin’s overall April 2010 median selling price was $509K or $312/SF.
• March 2010: $515,000 (up 12% from March 2009)

92627

• June 2010: $445,000 (down 2.9% from June 2009)
• May 2010: $425,000 (down 19.0% from May 2009)
• April 2010: $435,000 (down 5.6% from April 2009)
  Note: For comparison, Redfin’s overall April 2010 median selling price was also $435K or $353/SF.
• March 2010: $467,500 (up 24.7% from March 2009)

Photo Collage of Eastside Costa Mesa-Newport Beach Courtesy Costa Mesa’s Neighborhood Blog

Source unless otherwise noted: DataQuick/OC Register

Up next: number of home sales in Costa Mesa by ZIP

Up next on our Costa Mesa then-and-now tour is 458 Swarthmore Lane 92626, which is a 3 bed/1.75 bath, single-family home in College Park (Central Costa Mesa).

Asking price in November 2009: $539,000 or $393 per SF

Current status: This College Park home sold in December 2009 for the November 2009 asking price, $539,000 or $393 per SF.

HOA and Mellos Roos: none listed

Of note: Current estimates for this home are from $454,000 to $548,000.

Up next on our Costa Mesa then-and-now tour is 2296 La Playa Drive 92627, which is a  2 bed/2.5 bath, single-family home in Eastside Costa Mesa.

Asking price in November 2009: $574,900 or $396 per SF then changed to $549,900 or $379/SF

Current status: This Eastside home is currently off the market. This home was on the market in August 2006 and then delisted and relisted numerous times since then. Most recently, this home was delisted in February 2010.

HOA and Mellos Roos: no Mellos Roos but an small HOA fee

Of note: This home sold in January 2005 for $625,000. Current estimates for value of this home are from $497,000 to $697,000.

Up next on our Costa Mesa then-and-now tour is 157 Del Mar Avenue 92627:, which is a 3 bed/2.75 bath, single-family home in Eastside Costa Mesa.

Asking price in November 2009: On November 2, 2009, the asking price was $599,000 or $408 per SF; however, on November 18, 2009, the price was reduced to $579,900 or $394/SF.

Current status: This home sold on the fourteenth of this month for $571,000 or $388 per SF.

HOA and Mellos Roos: none listed

Of note: This Eastside home was on the market in December 2008 but did not sell until June 2010.

Up next on our then-and-now tour of the Costa Mesa housing market is 2189 Tustin Avenue 92627, a 3 bed/2.5 baths, single-family home in Eastside Costa Mesa.

Asking price in November 2009: $1,249,000 or $416 per SF

Current status: This Eastside home sold in December 2009 for $985,000 or $328 per SF.

HOA and Mellos Roos: none listed

Of note: The first listing for this home shows up in June 2009; at this time the asking price was the same as the November 2009 asking price, $1,249,000. The asking price was reduced in December 2009 to $1,095,000. Current estimates for this home range from $950,000 to $1,008,000.

This week will be a little then and now for housing prices in Costa Mesa. I will be comparing the market status for Costa Mesa homes that were on the market in November 2009 to the current market status of the same homes.

Up first: 178 Flower Street, 92627: single-family, 5 bed/5.5 baths, Eastside Costa Mesa

Asking price in November 2009: $1,399,000 or $399 per SF

Current status: This home is still on the market. In fact, this home has been on the market for almost a year (currently over 325 days). In spite of this, the asking price remains the same as its November 2009 price, $1,399,000.

HOA and Mellos Roos: none listed

Of note: This Eastside home sold in May 2006 for $1,525,000. In March 2004, this home sold for $684,000. John Burns states in a recent newsletter that a general rule is that housing prices should be at 2003 levels. So is this home overpriced?

The listing information states that this is a custom-built home with many upgrades. This might justify some increase in price over the 2004 sales price, but since this home has been on the market for over 325 day, the market is saying “no” to the current asking price.

Here are some quotes from a post in a recent John Burns Consulting newsletter. They provide some food for thought when deciding if housing prices are going up, down, or sideways:

When forced to answer the question, we [John Burns Consulting] say that most home prices are reverting to 2003 prices - some areas have overcorrected and some have not fully corrected. While that covers our butt nationally, we know the truth is much different depending on what submarket or pool of homes you are talking about.

…

If you read the newspapers, you would think prices are appreciating, whether it is the Case Shiller price index or median resale prices - the two price measures that used to be the most reliable measures…

According to CS, prices are up 6% in LA (includes Orange Co.) and 11% in San Diego since March of 2009. According to the median price, prices are up 12% in LA, 17% in Orange County, 12% in Riverside and 18% in San Diego since April of 2009. Neither is correct if you are talking about most homes in those markets.

…

According to a [Realtor Survey of Existing Home Prices] survey, prices only recently started appreciating in Orange County, and they are still trending down very slightly in the rest of Southern California.

…

To understand home prices (and all else housing-related for that matter), you need to look at everything. If you are making a decision based on headline data or a regression to the mean, you are taking a lot of risk.

Click on the link to see the rest of this John Burns Consulting newsletter.