Sweet Orange

The following information provides some insight into the status of the housing market in Orange County. In addition to shedding light on the percentage of Orange County housing that is in distress, this information shows that, although most statistics provide helpful information, considering all data with some skepticism is wise.

According to Steve Thomas of Altera Real Estate, on April 30, 2009, 35.9% of the Orange County homes on the market were in distress. Here is the Altera Orange County breakdown:

• 10,363 homes on the market as shown by the active-listing inventory
• 3,724 distressed homes on the market
• 35.9% of Orange County homes in distress (Source: Altera Realty)

Altera numbers also stated that 29.6% of Irvine homes on the market were in distress. Here is Altera’s Irvine breakdown:

• 686 homes listed for sale
• 203 homes in either foreclosure or a short sale
• 29.6% of Irvine homes in distress (Source:Altera Realty)

However, at that time, Trulia numbers showed a more pessimistic picture. Here is Trulia’s Irvine breakdown:

• 1810 resale and new homes on the market
• 741 homes in pre-foreclosure, auction or bank-owned stage of foreclosure
• 41% of Irvine homes in distress (Source: Trulia)

In addition, Trulia’s numbers showed that Costa Mesa has an even higher percentage of distressed homes on the market than Irvine.

• 780 resale and new homes on the market
• 416 homes in pre-foreclosure, auction or bank-owned stage of foreclosure
• 53 % of Costa Mesa homes in distress (Source: Trulia)

All these numbers are helpful, but, as you see, the Altera numbers show a rosier picture for the Irvine housing market than the Trulia numbers do.

In addition, based on these numbers, most would conclude that the Irvine housing market is in better shape than Costa Mesa’s. However, according to recent Altos Research numbers, the Costa Mesa housing market is in slightly better shape than Irvine’s, and both the Irvine and Costa Mesa housing markets are in better shape that the high-end beach communities.

The bottom line is that the numbers can be worked many different ways, and sometimes the same numbers are used to support opposing viewpoints. So, buyer beware, and look at a range of statistics from different sources to get a clear picture of market conditions.

Update: I just came across some articles on this subject by Jonathan Lansner: “Playing the numbers” and “Perhaps home sales haven’t bottomed yet.“  In the first, he writes about the varying home depreciation numbers that different companies report. In the second, John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting gives a perspective on the subject. SW 6-3-09