Sweet Orange

Following are some recent housing numbers, including the foreclosure numbers, for Costa Mesa that are broken down by ZIP code. These numbers, provided by Trulia, are for condo and detached homes combined.

Alto Research numbers, which are for detached homes only, currently give Costa Mesa a Market Action Index of 17.70 (30 or below is a buyers’ market). According to Redfin, approximately 70% of the Costa Mesa homes on market are detached.

Also, according to an article by Matt Padilla, the rate of foreclosures fell in both Costa Mesa ZIPs: The 92627 foreclosure rate dropped by 37 percent, and the 92626 rate dropped somewhere between 40% to 59% from the previous year. However, as the numbers below show, although the rate of foreclosures is decreasing in Costa Mesa, the number of foreclosures is still high.

92626 (South Coast Metro, Central, Mesa Verde)

• Average List Price (week ending 8-05-09): $599,086 ($304 per SF)
• Median Selling Price (May-July 2009): $495,000
• % home that are in foreclosure: 52.6%*
  (163 new and resale homes for sale, as well as 181 foreclosures**)

92627 (Eastside, Central, Southwest)

• Average List Price (week ending 8-05-09): $587,880 ($376 per SF)
• Median Selling Price (May-July 2009): $467,500
• % home that are in foreclosure: 50.3%*
  (237 new and resale homes for sale, as well as 240 foreclosures**)

**homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process

COSTA MESA HOME SALES GRAPH COURTESY CITY-DATA.COM

Tomorrow: some Costa Mesa community data numbers

In yesterday’s post, I wrote about Ivy, the new housing development in Irvine, and some of the features that make Irvine Irvine. In the first post that I wrote in my past life as a Redfin blogger, I wrote about this.  As I wrote at that time, some love Irvine and what it has to offer; others are not so impressed.

Those on the con side say that Irvine is too controlled, too monotonous, and too  “beige.” They are in agreement with many who have been taking Erica Chavez’s  “smackdown” polls. These polls ask voters to chose which of two similar homes the voters would prefer to buy: a home in Irvine or a home  in cities such as Lake Forest, Fullerton and North Tustin. For Irvine, at best, it’s a draw, but in most cases Irvine comes out on the bottom.

In spite of this, Irvine continues to be popular with buyers and command a higher price than homes in these other Orange County cities. Maybe it is like one of my former fellow-Redfin bloggers said: Irvine is like the kid in school that always has the right answer. Nothing wrong with that but irritates the hell out of the other kids.

In any case, that is why we have choice. You chose: Is Irvine just right or too beige?

A few Irvine factoids from The Irvine Company’s website:

The FBI has ranked Irvine the safest large city in the U.S. for five years in a row.

One-third of the city of Irvine will be set aside for parks, open space and trails.

All Irvine residents are within walking distance of a park.

Ninety percent of all Irvine high school students go to college.

All four of Irivne’s high  schools ranked in the top 5% of the nation’s schools.

Irvine has four of the top elementary schools in Orange County.

Irvine residents have the shortest commute in Orange County.

PHOTO COURTESY THE IRVINE COMPANY

Note: For phase three information and updated pricing information, click here. sw 10-5-09

Phase 2 of the new construction Ivy development in Irvine’s Woodbury East was a repeat performance of phase 1. Both phase 1 and phase 2 sold out all available housing units within 15 minutes of the time that these homes went on sale (July 11th and August 1st respectively).

Thirteen homes were available in phase 1, and eight homes were available in phase 2. The main difference between these two phases: prices were increased by $5,000 to $12,000 in phase 2. The main question now is how much William Lyons will increase the price for phase 3, which is currently set for three to five weeks from now. Any guesses?

If you are interested in buying one of these homes you should get yourself prequalified by William Lyons Mortgage, the homebuilder’s preferred lender. The hopeful homebuyers with this prequalification were the only ones that William Lyon, the Ivy developer, considered.

Erica Chavez at the Irvine Homes blog interviewed one of the buyers from the July 11th sale (and provided the numbers below). They were a family with two young children who were interested in living in Irvine but not sure that they could afford it.

I don’t know who the other buyers were, but this gives us some indication who the buyers might be: Families with young children attracted by the price that a smaller home made possible, along with the attraction of Irvine schools, a nearby shopping mall (Woodbury Village) and many parks, play areas and a pool that make up for a small yard. Except for the small home and small price features, these are some of the features that make Irvine what it is.

Tomorrow: a closer look at what makes Irvine Irvine.

Phase 1, July 11 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage; 1,180 square feet, priced from $349,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,394 square feet, priced from $389,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,500 square feet, priced from $427,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,503 square feet, priced from $422,990

Phase 2, August 1 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,180 square feet, priced from $354,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,394 square feet, priced from $394,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,500 square feet, priced from $439,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,503 square feet, NOT AVAILABLE

Phase 3 prices in 3 to 5 weeks : Any guesses?

Related posts:

• New Construction Housing Development Sells Out in 15 Minutes
• Ivy. an Irvine Woodbury East Development, Opens with Smaller, More Affordable Housing Options
• Pros and Cons of New Irvine Development: Ivy, a Woodbury East Neighborhood

PHOTO COURTESY THE IRVINE COMPANY

In yesterday’s post, I wrote about the Orange County ZIPs that had more foreclosure at this time that the same period one year ago. Today, I am going to highlight the Orange County ZIPs at the other end of the spectrum–OC ZIPs in which the number of foreclosures fell by 60% or more.

They are as follows: 92845 (Garden Grove), 92841 (Garden Grove), 92844 (Garden Grove), 92703 (Santa Ana), 92701 (Santa Ana), 92806 (Anaheim), 92782 (Tustin), 92676 (Silverado). Note that the housing in these ZIPs are mostly at the lower-end of the Orange County housing market.

Also, note these ZIPs that have the largest decrease in foreclosures when compared to last year do not necessarily have the fewest foreclosure. The percentage of distressed properties in these ZIPs, as shown by numbers from Trulia, gives an indication of this (see below).

92845 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $450,000 (however, the average list price is $459,221)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 59 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 67%*

92841 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $360,000 (however, the average list price is $384,205)
• 69 new and resell homes listed
• 204 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 74.7%*

92844 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $255,000 (however, the average list price is $311,368)
• 56 new and resell homes listed
• 169 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75%*

92703 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $235,000 (however, the average list price is $211,449)
• 147 new and resell homes listed
• 411 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 73.7%*

92701 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $130,000 (however, the average list price is $208,792)
• 148 new and resell homes listed
• 448 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75.2%*

92806 (Anaheim)

• Median sold price: $360,100 (however, the average list price is $298,790)
• 74 new and resell homes listed
• 182 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 71%*

92782 (Tustin Ranch)

• Median sold price: $640,000 (however, the average list price is $807,847)
• 172 new and resell homes listed
• 108 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 38.6%*

92676 (Silverado)

• Median sold price: $349,000 (however, the average list price is $893,621)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 39.6%*

*Trulia defines distressed properties as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Sources:

• “O.C. foreclosures plummeted in spring,” Matthew Padilla
• Trulia

According to an article in The Orange County Register by Matthew Padilla, the percentage of foreclosures increased 50% or more in the following Orange County ZIP codes: 90740 (Seal Beach), 92823 (Brea), 92604 (Irvine-Woodbridge), 92625 (Corona del Mar), 92651 (Laguna Beach), 92629 (Dana Point), 92679 (Trabuco Canyon).

However, this does not mean that these ZIPs have the highest number of foreclosures when compared to the number of homes in each of these Orange County ZIPS–only that they are seeing the biggest increase in the number of foreclosure when compared to the same period one year ago.

According to Trulia, the percentage of home on the market in each of these ZIPs that are distressed sales is as shown below. Trulia defines distressed as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

90740 (Seal Beach)

• Median sold price: $710,000 (however, the average list price is $406,381)
• 334 new and resell homes listed
• 35 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 9.5%

92823 (Brea)

• Median sold price: $569,000 (however, the average list price is $742,482)
• 34 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 36%

92604 (Irvine, Woodbridge)

• Median sold price: $494,500 (however, the average list price is $580,821)
• 85 new and resell homes listed
• 112 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 57%

92625 (Corona del Mar)

• Median sold price:$1,260,000 (however, the average list price is $2,781,408)
• 246 new and resell homes listed
• 54 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 18%

92651 (Laguna Beach)

• Median sold price:$1,100,000 (however, the average list price is $3,746,754)
• 515 new and resell homes listed
• 111 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 17.7%

92629 (Dana Point)

• Median sold price:$650,000 (however, the average list price is $1,693,055 )
• 299 new and resell homes listed
• 163 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 35.3%

92679 (Trabuco Canyon, Dove Canyon, Coto de Caza)

• Median sold price:$640,000 (however, the average list price is $1,648,131)
• 324 new and resell homes listed
• 256 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 44%

While they did not have as large a percentage increase as the ZIPs listed above, the following ZIPS also had an increase in the percentage of foreclosures (1%-49%):

• 90623 (La Palma)
• 92649 (Huntington Beach)
• 92886 (Yorba Linda)
• 92614 (Irvine, Woodbridge)
• 92692 (Mission Viejo)
• 92673 (San Clemente)
• 92672 (San Clemente)

In all  other Orange County ZIPs (those not listed in this post), the percentage of foreclosures decreased when compared to a year ago (June 2008). Again, this does not mean that these ZIPs had the smallest percentage of foreclosure–only the smallest increase from the previous year.

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Tomorrow: a look at the O.C. ZIPs in which the increase in foreclosures decreased by 60% or more from the previous year. Hint: They are mostly at the lower-end of the market.

Well, we had stimulus spending and some say that we are starting to see an economic recovery. However, others are questioning this since unemployment is still so high. Peter Orszag, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, explained it this way during a Charlie Rose interview.

Orszag stated that he sees the economy as improving but the unemployment rate will remain high for some time to come. This is in accord with most economists’ belief  that employment is a lagging indicator in a recovering economy–the stock market might go up, businesses may see improvement, but hiring is put off until the recovery has long been underway.

However, Orszag said that the current unemployment rate is 1.5% higher than would be expected in a more traditional recession. He listed two factors for this: First, pensions are largely a thing of the past; more U.S. citizens now depend on a 401K for their retirement. However, with the fall of the stock market, the amount in 401Ks has decreased drastically, and many, by necessity, are postponing retirement and staying in the workforce.

Second, in past recessions, many moved to other locations to accept a job offer. However, this time around, plunging house prices make it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and seek employment elsewhere. The result is that fewer of the unemployed see moving as an option in this recession than in past recessions.

Orszag also said that without the stimulus spending the economy and the job situation would be worst than it is now and that the affect of stimulus spending was designed to reach a peak at the end of this year and early 2010.

Many indicators exist that various groups use to gauge the health of the job market. Unemployment numbers are the most commonly stated indicator, but I am going to suggest another less obvious one, abandoned shopping carts.

I live in Irvine, a city that is in good economic shape compared to other cities. Irvine has saved up a sizable reserve fund, and, although Irvine is tightening its belt, so far the city is getting through the economic downturn without reducing services or letting go city staff–claims many other cities cannot make.

Add to that the median family income in Irvine is approximately $108,000, well over Orange County’s median family income of approximately $75,000. Based on this information, you might think that Irvine residents are not feeling the economic pain. Not so, by my admittedly unscientific and anecdotal economic indicator.

In my Northwood neighborhood in Irvine, I have noticed something that I have not seen much in the past, abandoned shopping carts. My speculation is that either some Irvine residents are recently finding themselves without a car or they are feeling the need to save every possible dollar, including gas dollars.

This issue was brought up in a recent city council meeting, and the council instructed the city staff to come back in August with suggestions on how to handle this situation.

In the public comments portion of the council meeting, a Boy Scout made a suggestion that was elegant in its practical simplicity: Some shopping carts have phone numbers that can be called. Once called the appropriate store has someone pick up the cart in a timely manner. The scout’s suggestion was to require all stores to include a retrieval number. Then neighborhood volunteers will monitor the area and call the retrieval number when necessary. (By the way, it should be noted that this scout was so dedicated that he waited through a particularly long council meeting to get the time needed to state his suggestion. Unfortunately, I don’t have his name.)

We will see what the staff comes up with. I hope that it will be something along the lines that this scout suggested. In other words, I hope that it is something that solves the problem but does not make the lives of Irvine residents who have found themselves in economic difficulty even more challenging.

One more observation: no group is unaffected by this downturn. We are in this together.

PHOTO COURTESY STACKSANDSTACK