Sweet Orange

Following is a quote straight from the MakingHomeAffordable.gov website. Remember: Help with preventing foreclosure and obtaining loan modifications is free.

Beware of Foreclosure Rescue Scams - Help Is Free!

• There should never be a fee for assistance with or information about the Making Home Affordable Program.
• Beware of any person or organization that asks you to pay an upfront fee in exchange for a counseling service or modification of a delinquent loan. Do not pay - walk away!
• Beware of anyone who says they can “save” your home if you sign or transfer over the deed to your house.  Do not sign over the deed to your property to any organization or individual unless you are working directly with your mortgage company to forgive your debt.
• Never make your mortgage payments to anyone other than your mortgage company without their approval.

The Obama Administration has launched a coordinated effort across federal and state government and the private sector to target mortgage loan modification fraud and foreclosure rescue scams that threaten to hurt American homeowners and prevent them from getting the help they need during these challenging times. Click here for more information.

Many of the cities with the longest road to recovery are California cities, where home prices rocketed out of control, and entire economies were supported largely by a real estate bubble. Fresno, Modesto, Salinas, Bakersfield, Stockton and Los Angeles all saw home prices soar to unsustainable levels and then begin their inevitable plunge.
–”The Best And Worst Cities For Recession Recovery” by Joshua Zumbrun

According to Forbes, a median priced home in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana metropolitan area costs over five times the median income of this southern California area.

Here are some other economic stats from Forbes on the area that they call Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana:

• GDP at start of recession: $597 billion
• Projected GDP at the end of 2010: $581 billion (-2.6%, projected)
• Unemployment: 10.1%
• Median home/median salary ratio: 5.3

Forbes also states that although the southern California area was hit hard by the real estate bust, the area still “has a robust underlying economy” and the economy is growing. However, the area “still has some of the most expensive real estate in the country, indicating a housing recovery could be years away.”

Meanwhile, home buildeing company Standard Pacific is gung ho on housing in Orange County:

This [Orange County] is our best-performing area in the world.
–Ken Campbell, Standard president and CEO

Many indicators exist that various groups use to gauge the health of the job market. Unemployment numbers are the most commonly stated indicator, but I am going to suggest another less obvious one, abandoned shopping carts.

I live in Irvine, a city that is in good economic shape compared to other cities. Irvine has saved up a sizable reserve fund, and, although Irvine is tightening its belt, so far the city is getting through the economic downturn without reducing services or letting go city staff–claims many other cities cannot make.

Add to that the median family income in Irvine is approximately $108,000, well over Orange County’s median family income of approximately $75,000. Based on this information, you might think that Irvine residents are not feeling the economic pain. Not so, by my admittedly unscientific and anecdotal economic indicator.

In my Northwood neighborhood in Irvine, I have noticed something that I have not seen much in the past, abandoned shopping carts. My speculation is that either some Irvine residents are recently finding themselves without a car or they are feeling the need to save every possible dollar, including gas dollars.

This issue was brought up in a recent city council meeting, and the council instructed the city staff to come back in August with suggestions on how to handle this situation.

In the public comments portion of the council meeting, a Boy Scout made a suggestion that was elegant in its practical simplicity: Some shopping carts have phone numbers that can be called. Once called the appropriate store has someone pick up the cart in a timely manner. The scout’s suggestion was to require all stores to include a retrieval number. Then neighborhood volunteers will monitor the area and call the retrieval number when necessary. (By the way, it should be noted that this scout was so dedicated that he waited through a particularly long council meeting to get the time needed to state his suggestion. Unfortunately, I don’t have his name.)

We will see what the staff comes up with. I hope that it will be something along the lines that this scout suggested. In other words, I hope that it is something that solves the problem but does not make the lives of Irvine residents who have found themselves in economic difficulty even more challenging.

One more observation: no group is unaffected by this downturn. We are in this together.

PHOTO COURTESY STACKSANDSTACK

With the value of Orange County homes declining, some Orange County residents will (if they haven’t already) receive a reduced assessment and, therefore, a reduced tax bill from Webster Guillory, the Orange County Assessor. If after receiving  your property tax assessment you have questions, you can contact the Office of the Assessor at (714) 834-2727, or view the online instructions for the appeals process. The appeals filing period is July 2 through September 15, 2009.

For some helpful information on saving taxes, see “How to save on property taxes” by Jeff Collins of the OC Register.

Property Value Notices are mailed in July to inform real estate owners of the taxable value of their property.

A Beige Notice indicates the property’s market value was higher than the Prop. 13 value on January 1 (lien date).

• A 2% inflation adjustment has been added as required by California law.
• Related property taxes may go up accordingly.

A Blue Notice indicates the property’s market value was lower than the Prop. 13 value on January 1 (lien date).

• Taxable value has been temporarily reduced or kept at last year’s value.
• Related property taxes for that tax year may go down accordingly.

If you disagree with the valuation of your property, you may file an assessment appeal with the Clerk of the Board of Supervisors.

–from the Orange County Assessor’s webpage

Yesterday, we took a look at some housing market numbers for North Orange County. Today, we will take a look at how the Central Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 12, 2009. The Altos numbers are updated each week, so if you click on the Altos index numbers for each city, you will see the July 19 numbers (or the most recent index number). In most cases, the July 19 numbers show that  the market has retreated further into a buyers’s market in just this one week.

Also, note that the Altos numbers for Central Orange County show a similar story when it comes to the high-end and low-end of the housing market: Central Orange County cities with the highest-priced homes  have some of  the least favorable market index number (for example, Newport Beach, Villa Park and Los Alamitos). And the Central Orange County cities with lower-priced homes have some of the most favorable market index numbers (for example, Santa Ana). However, as shown by the numbers, the housing market in all of these cities is a buyers’ market.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name.

Note: The brown line in the graphs is the Altos Market Action Index 90-day median; the black line is the Altos Market Action Index 7-day median.

Costa Mesa:

• Altos Research Index–21.13
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

Fountain Valley:

• Altos Research Index–26.05
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

Huntington Beach:

• Altos Research Index–~14.50
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

Irvine:

• Altos Research Index–18.31
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

Los Alamitos:

• Altos Research Index–11.90
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

Newport Beach:

• Altos Research Index–11.42
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

Orange:

• Altos Research Index–19.26
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

Santa Ana:

• Altos Research Index–21.75
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

Seal Beach: 

• Altos Research Index–12.91
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

Tustin:

• Altos Research Index–19.09
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

Villa Park:

• Altos Research Index–8.43
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

Today, we will take a look at how the North Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 5, 2009.

Also, note that the North Orange County city with the highest-priced homes, Yorba Linda, has the least favorable market index number. And many of the North Orange County cities with the lowest-priced homes have some of the most favorable market index numbers. However, as shown by the numbers, the housing market in all of these cities is a buyers’ market.

Anaheim:

• Altos Research Index–23.69
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–73%

Brea:

• Altos Research Index–20.14
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–89%

Brena Park:

• Altos Research Index–23.32
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

Cypress:

• Altos Research Index–25.82
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

Fullerton:

• Altos Research Index–21.41
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–78%

Garden Grove:

• Altos Research Index–27.56
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–74%

La Habra:

• Altos Research Index–21.64
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

La Palma:

• Altos Research Index–18.65
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

Placentia:

• Altos Research Index–20.49
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

Stanton:

• Altos Research Index–23.67
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–66%

Westminster:

• Altos Research Index–27.83
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

Yorba Linda:

• Altos Research Index–17.88
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–79%

Related post:

• Central Orange County Housing Report: Gauging the Detached Homes Market Status
• South Orange County Housing Report: Gauging the Detached Homes Market Status

Part Three of a three-part series: A Little Story About Our Economy
Part One: The Depression, Keynes, and Manipulating the Money Supply
Part Two: More on Manipulating the Money Supply
Part Three: Solutions?

In yesterday’s post, we saw that standard methods of both the right and left for dealing with an economic crisis have their limits. So what is the answer to our current economic difficulties?

Sticking with the money supply manipulation model and hoping that it will eventually work? Many say: Been there, done that. Didn’t work. These critics also say that the Fed’s attempt to control the money supply leads to economic bubbles and inflation.

Maybe the answer is a return to Keynes, as some say that the current stimulus plan is. However, many criticize this spend-your-way-out-of-the-problem approach as leading to inflation and a huge debt for future generations.

This group that is critical of the Keynes model often calls for tax cuts as the way out. However, criticism of this tactic also exists. For example, the critics of the tax cut model state that George W. Bush cut taxes, but we still had an economic tsunami under his watch.

So what is the answer to our current economic difficulties? As award-winning author and New York Times columnist Tom Friedman suggests, is something entirely new needed?

Let’s today step out of the normal boundaries of analysis of our economic crisis and ask a radical question: What if the crisis of 2008 represents something much more fundamental than a deep recession? What if it’s telling us that the whole growth model we created over the last 50 years is simply unsustainable economically and ecologically and that 2008 was when we hit the wall - when Mother Nature and the market both said: “No more.”—Tom Friedman, “The Inflection Is Near?“

Questions to ponder, posts to write at another time.

Yesterday, I listed mostly the points in favor of the mixed-use, urban development in the Irvine Business Complex (IBC). Now here is my criticism of the IBC development. The trade off for a more densely built development has often been lower home prices. However, in the boom years of our recent past, the developers could make more money building these high-end high-rises, and understandably this is what they choose to build.

However, even then that wasn’t the primary type of high-density housing that Orange County needed. And today, even with our reduced housing prices, affordability is still a problem in Orange County. Building housing that is more in harmony with the median Orange County income is what is needed. The trade off for higher density should be lower home prices.

I think it would be interesting to take the IBC’s Astoria design tour put on by the American Society of Interior Designers (ASID), and, in the process, support the Orange County Performing Arts Center. But I suggest that future development objectives be tweaked to provide more affordability. And while I am at it, I will put in a word for keeping residential development on a more human scale, which would be four stories or less.

For a look at urban-living in the IBC from a design point of view, see Cindy McNatt’s “Loft-style living,” or watch this YouTube video.

Also, for more information on the current status of the IBC development and some various opinions on the development, see “Mothballed Condo Project in Irvine, CA,”  the City of Irvine’s IBC home page, “Irvine planners approve design of large-scale office retail project,” and “Irvine considers 6,000 residential units in urban core.”

GRAPHIC COURTESY THE CITY OF IRVINE

I have written about the evolving development of high- and mid-rise living in the Irvine Business Complex (IBC) and have been meaning to write more about this type of development. A recent post by Erica Chavez at the O.C. Register’s Irvine Homes blog has given me the nudge to get around to writing this post. So, before I go any further, thanks to Erica for her interesting post—and the nudge.

The post gives the details and some interesting links for the ongoing design tours that are occurring at the Astoria at Central Park West, one of the new IBC high-rise developments. As Erica points out the tours will continue through May 22, and the proceeds will benefit the Orange County Performing Arts Center. If you are interested in urban living and/or design, check out Erica’s post (Design tour offers sneak preview at Irvine’s newest high-rise).

Now here is where the nudge comes in. Some who left comments on the post had some harsh words about this development. My take is that Orange County is currently urban as well as suburban; however, some have trouble accepting that all development in Orange County is not going to be of the traditional suburban vintage. However, circumstances have changed since our suburban heyday, and our development criteria needs to progress with these changes. Our population has grown, so we don’t have the wide-open spaces of the past for housing developments. In addition, today we have more empty nesters and young professionals who want the advantages of urban living.

However, let me make it clear, I don’t think that suburban homes should be done away with. They should stay a big part of the mix. I just think that circumstances have changed and a need for a more diverse housing mix currently exists.

Tomorrow: my criticism of the IBC development

For more information on the IBC, see “The Housing Numbers for the Irvine Business Complex: Irvine’s Evolving, Mixed-Use Urban Center.”

GRAPHIC COURTESY ASTORIA

Following is a list of some of the most affordable housing in the Irvine Business Complex, based on the price per square foot. The median price per square foot that homes in the IBC are selling for is currently $219. Looks like these IBC condos will need to have the price lowered even more. As always, keep the HOA fees in mind. Note: See last week’s posts for more information on the IBC.

1134 Scholarship (Avenue One) is a two bedroom, 1037 square foot condo, built in 2006 with an asking price of $299,000 ($288/SF). The HOA fee is $390 monthly.

1262 Scholarship (Avenue One) is a two bedroom, 1037 square foot condo, built in 2006 with an asking price of $319,900 ($308/SF). The HOA fee is $390 monthly.

2330 Watermarke Place (Watermarke) is a two bedroom, 1123 square foot condo, built in 2003 with an asking price of $355,000 ($316/SF). The HOA fee is $316 monthly.

2233 Martin #311 (Metropolitan) is a one bedroom, 934 square foot condo, built in 1992 with an asking price of $299,000 ($320/SF). The HOA fee is $392 monthly.

3131 Michelson  #802 (The Marquee Park Place) is a two bedroom, 1367 square foot condo, built in 2006 with an asking price of $430,000 ($315/SF). The HOA fee is $1,200 monthly.

3131 Michelson  #606 (The Marquee Park Place) is a two bedroom, 1367 square foot condo, built in 2006 with an asking price of $399,000 ($292/SF). The HOA fee is $1,124 monthly.

3131 Michelson  #303 (The Marquee Park Place) is a two bedroom, 1293 square foot condo, built in 2006 with an asking price of $348,888 ($270/SF). The HOA fee is $1,069 monthly.

PHOTO OF THE IBC’S SAN JOAQUIN MARSH COURESTY FORGET ME KNOTT PHOTOGRAPHY