Sweet Orange

On February 11th, the Orange County Home Ownership Preservation Collaborative (OC HOPC) is offering a free workshop for anyone who needs help with preventing a foreclosure on their home. This is part of the on-going free foreclosure prevention workshops that OC HOPC is providing in partnership with various organizations. The February 11th workshop is in partnership with the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), City of Santa Ana, National Association of Realtors, California Association of Realtors, Orange County Association of Realtors, and Calvary Church.

HUD-approved housing counselors, legal counselors and lenders will be on-site to help at the workshop. However, only homeowners whose names are on the mortgage can be assisted, so OC HOPC asks that you do not send someone in your place. If you need assistance but can’t make this workshop, you might contact OC HOPE and ask what other help is available or when and where the next workshop will be held.

Here are the details for the upcoming OC HOPC workshop:

When: Thursday, February 11, 2010
Session 1–2:30 to 4:30 pm (English, registration begins at 2:00 pm)
Session 2–5:30 to 7:30 pm (Spanish, registration begins at 5:00 pm)

Where: Calvary Church, 1010 N. Tustin Avenue, Santa Ana

Who: Open to public
RSVP Recommended (www.oc.myhousingforall.org or e-mail myhousingforall@aol.com)

What to Bring:

• Your loan documents and recent mortgage statement
• Your two most current pay stubs
• Your most recent W2s–two-years worth
• Your most recent tax returns–two-years worth
• A list of your monthly expenses

Cost: Free

Again, if you need help with preventing a foreclosure but can’t attend this workshop, contact OC HOPC to see what other help is available.

Here are the most recent Orange County foreclosure numbers from DQNews:

Notice of Defaults (NODs)–This is the first step in the foreclosure process; however, this does not necessarily end in the home being taken back by the lender.

Fourth Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–5,555
• 2008–4,481
• This is a 24.0% year-over-year increase. However, the quarter-to-quarter number of NODs deceased.

Third Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–7,436
• 2008—5,692
• This is a 30.6% year-over-year increase.

Trustee Sales Recorded–This is the last step in the foreclosure process. The home is sold to a new owner at a trustee auction or taken back by the lender in this stage of the foreclosure process.

Fourth Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–2,235
• 2008–2,088
• This is a 7.0% year-over-year increase. In addition, the quarter-to-quarter number of trustee sales is approximately the same.

Third Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–2,238
• 2008—3,997
• This is a 44.0% year-over-year decrease.

Notice of Defaults up, and trustee sales down. That is what the most recent numbers from DQNews are telling us about the foreclosure process in Orange County.

Here are the numbers from DQNews:

Notice of Defaults (This is the first step in the foreclosure process; however, this does not necessarily end in the home being taken back by the lender.)

• 2008Q3—5,692
• 2009Q3–7,436
• This is a 30.60% increase.

Trustee Sales Recorded (This is the last step in the foreclosure process. The home is taken back by the lender in this stage of foreclosure.)

• 2008Q3–3,997
• 2009Q3–2,238
• This is a 44.00% decrease.

Here is what John Walsh, DataQuick president, makes of these numbers:

It may well be that lenders have intentionally slowed down the pace of formal foreclosure proceedings. If so, it’s not out of the goodness of their hearts. It’s because they’ve concluded that flooding the market with cheap foreclosures in this economic environment may not be in their best financial interest. Trying to keep motivated, employed homeowners in their homes might be the most cost-efficient way to stem losses.

He goes on to say:

There’s a batch of truly nasty loans that were made in mid 2006. There’s another batch made in late 2006. These are worse than the mortgages before and after, and it’s taking a long time to process them.

The 2009 fourth quarter number from DataQuick should be out soon. We will see if the Q3 and Q4 numbers tell the same story. I expect that they will.

Update: New numbers from DataQuick have just been released. sw 1-30-10

In my last post, I listed some predictions on Irvine’s 2010 housing market from Larry Roberts of the Irvine Housing Blog.

Here is a different perspective. According to Mark Boud of Real Estate Economics:

“The new-home market may rebound more dramatically than the overall housing market. For example, new homes being offered on the Irvine Ranch may absorb and appreciate faster than anyone anticipates - partly due to the lack of competitive new-home inventory and partly due to a faster-than-anticipated drop in distressed housing inventory. As early as January, there may be a bit of a new home ‘frenzy’ on the Irvine Ranch.”

“…a faster-than-anticipated drop in distressed housing inventory.”? Is it that likely that the inventory of distressed homes will decrease drastically in 2010? Or will shadow inventory make itself felt in a more substantial way in 2010 than it did in 2009? We’ll see.

For more 2010 housing predictions, see “What might shock the housing market in 2010?”

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County homes priced over $1,000,000. You can pick out the city of interest to you and see what is happening in that market. You can also do some compare and contrast.

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 13.54
  October 18, 2009: 13.39
  September 20, 2009: 13.69
  July 19, 2009: 11.84
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $2,284,654
  October 18, 2009: $2,281,775
• Redfin median sold price
  November 2009: house--$1210/SF; condo–$307/SF
  September 2009: house–$1646/SF; condo–$374/SF

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Action Index: n/a
  
• Altos median list price for detached houses: n/a
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$295/SF; condo–$277/SF
  September 2009: n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 13.85
  October 18, 2009: 14.75
  September 20, 2009: 14.32
  July 19, 2009: 15.68
• Altos median list price:
  December 13 2009: $1,061,681
  October 18, 2009: $1,053,46
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$382/SF; condo–$294/SF
  September 2009: house–$264/SF; condo–$493/SF

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13, 2009: 17.33
  October 18, 2009: 15.03
  September 20, 2009: 13.24
  July 19, 2009: 10.86
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13, 2009: $930,474
  October 18, 2009: $1,021,748
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$281/SF; condo–$217/SF
  September 2009: house–$289/SF; condo–$124/SF

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of homes in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County homes that are under $600,000. You can pick out the city of interest to you and see what is happening in that market. You can also do some compare and contrast with other cities.

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached-5%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 5.98
  October 18, 2009: 6.48
  September 20, 2009: 3.04
  July 19, 2009: 6.07
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $239,438
  October 18, 2009: $260,054
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$216/SF; condo-$146/SF
  September 2009: house-$244/SF; condo-$153/SF

Note: Laguna Wood is a 55+ community. HOA fees are usually at least $600; many are substantially higher than this.

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached-60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 20.75
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 16.95
  July 19, 2009: 17.37
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $500,660
  October 18, 2009: $515,250
• Redfin median sold price
  November 2009: house-$284/SF; condo-$230/SF
  September 2009: house-$276/SF; condo-$254/SF

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached-70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 19.64
  October 18, 2009: 21.04
  September 20, 2009: 18.69
  July 19, 2009: 16.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $541,035
  October 18, 2009: $539,279
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$281/SF; condo-$230/SF
  September 2009: house-$302/SF; condo-$252/SF

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached-55%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 18.26
  October 18, 2009: 18.83
  September 20, 2009: 16.45
  July 19, 2009: 16.64
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $527,331
  October 18, 2009: $546,546
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$270/SF; condo-$258/SF
  September 2009: house-$299/SF; condo-$279/SF

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached-25%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 23.31
  October 18, 2009: 22.68
  September 20, 2009: 20.37
  July 19, 2009:  18.09
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $590,935
  October 18, 2009: $595,254
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$299/SF; condo-$260/SF
  September 2009: house-$244/SF; condo-$186/SF

Up next: South Orange County Housing Numbers for homes between $600,000 to $1,000,000

Note: Usually, I would not publish another post until Monday; however, since this post is time-sensitive, I am posting Monday’s post today, Friday. Also, during the holidays, I might publish fewer posts per week than I have up to this point. We’ll see.

The Irvine Community Land Trust in partnership with Neighborhood Housing Services Orange County is putting its first three Irvine homes on the market. The deadline to apply online is soon (December 22nd by 11.59 pm PST), so if you are interested, hurry. Also, be aware that restrictions such as income limits and resale restrictions exist. For more information, see the land trust website.

Here is some more information on the three homes that are currently being offered to qualified buyers. In some cases, the square footage and value estimates involved some educated guessing on my part.

80 Clearbrook (Woodbridge)

• 1980 condo
• 3 bedrooms/2 baths with approximately 1,113 SF
• List price: $264,600
• Estimated value: $370,000

56  Clearbrook (Woodbridge)

• 1980 condo
• 2 bedrooms/2 baths with approximately 920 SF
• List price: $231,850
• Estimated value: $320,000

49  Torocco (Orangetree)

• 1983 condo
• 2 bedrooms/2 baths with approximately 995 SF
• List price: $240,400
• Estimated value: $270,000

Recently, I wrote about two condos in Irvine that were both about 1,400 square feet and selling for about $400,000. One was a 1982 home in Northwood, and the other is part of  the new Ivy development that is located in Woodbury East. In that post, I asked the question: Which of these two homes is a better deal? Well, maybe you prefer to look elsewhere for something cheaper. If so, here is an example of what has sold in Costa Mesa.

At 3431 Pinebrook (South Coast Metro neighborhood) is a 1977 condo with 2 bedroom, 1.75 baths, and 1,254 SF. The home sold on 06/01/2009 for $270,000 ($215/SF). However, a year and a half ago this home was listed for $399,000. Homeowner association fee is $320 per month. No Mellos Roos tax is listed.

This home is somewhat smaller than the Irvine condos, but so was the overall selling price as well as the price per square foot. In addition, this condo has the convenience of being close to South Coast Plaza shopping center and the South Coast Metro Arts and Cultural Center.

Here is the listing history:

Jun 05, 2009	Delisted	–	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Jun 01, 2009	Sold (MLS)	$270,000	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Feb 23, 2009	Relisted	–	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Jan 26, 2009	Price Changed	$270,000	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Jan 26, 2009	Relisted	–	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Sep 20, 2008	Price Changed	$299,000	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Sep 03, 2008	Price Changed	$350,000	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1
Jun 20, 2008	Listed	$399,900	–	Inactive SoCalMLS #1

In some recent posts, I listed a sample of homes in North Orange County and South Orange County that are currently bank owned. Today, we’ll take a look at a sample of  homes in Central Orange County that are bank owned. In other words, these homes have gone through a trustee auction which resulted in ownership of the home reverting to the bank. I have included an estimated value, last sold price and the market value (list price) of the home. The information for all of the following homes is from Foreclosed Homes.

801 S Lyon Sreett #33 Santa Ana, CA 92705: condo with one bedroom

• estimated value: $177,870
• last sold on July 19, 2005 for $142,500
• list price: $61,900

215 Knox Street Costa Mesa, CA 92627: single-family home with two bedrooms/two baths

• estimated value of $598,137
• last sold on July 28, 2009 for $427,174
• list price: $609,000

3771 Claremont Street Irvine, CA 92614: single-family home with three-bedrooms

• estimated value of $546,837
• last sold on August 28, 2009 for $510,000
• list price: $509,500

10520 Lakeside Drive N, Garden Grove, CA 92840: single-family home with two-bedrooms/one-bath home

• estimated value: $264,622
• last sold: n/a
• list price: $110,000

1025 W Bishop Street, Santa Ana, CA 92703: single-family home with three-bedrooms/three baths

• estimated value: n/a
• last sold: n/a
• list price: $103,500

144 Orange Blossom, Irvine, CA 92618: 1976 condo with two bedrooms/one bath

• estimated value: $239,933
• last sold: n/a
• list price: $278,000

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of homes in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: For the most part, I let you peruse these numbers yourself and decide what they mean. However, I will point out that list price and the sold price for homes in Newport Beach, the highest priced Central Orange County housing market, went down. And the list price and the sold price for homes in Santa Ana, the lowest priced Central Orange County housing market, went up.

Also, since I like to compare and contrast Irvine and Costa Mesa, here are some observations on the housing market in these two cities: The list price and the selling price for single-family homes in Costa Mesa went down. However, the selling price for Costa Mesa condos went up. In Irvine, the list price for single-family homes went down, but the selling price for both single-family homes and condos went up.

The Altos index numbers (which are for single-family homes only) show the health of these two markets to be about equal; however, the Altos numbers also show that the Irvine housing market is trending in a more positive direction.

Note that the selling price that I am referring to in the above paragraphs is the price per square foot. The list price is the overall list price.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the Central Orange County housing market:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 20.20
  October 18, 2009: 20.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.97
  July 12, 2009: 21.13
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $566,785
  October 18, 2009: $570,626
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$333/SF; condo–$262/SF
  September 2009: house–$403/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 22.79
  October 18, 2009: 23.86
  September 13, 2009: 20.72
  July 12, 2009: 26.05
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $592,377
  October 18, 2009: $598,615
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$219/SF
  September 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$304/SF

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 17.80
  October 18, 2009: 17.86
  September 13, 2009: 16.63
  July 12, 2009: 14.50
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $760,492
  October 18, 2009: $770,762
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$374/SF; condo–$334/SF
  September 2009: house–$344/SF; condo–$344/SF

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–45%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 19.98
  October 18, 2009: 19.21
  September 13, 2009: 17.18
  July 12, 2009: 18.31
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $831,685
  October 18, 2009: $863,177
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$357/SF; condo–$331/SF
  September 2009: house–$338/SF; condo–$318/SF

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 17.28
  October 18, 2009: 16.83
  September 13, 2009: 12.31
  July 12, 2009: 11.90
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $869,961
  October 18, 2009: $860,346
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$302/SF; condo–$277/SF
  September 2009: house–$260/SF; condo–$275/SF

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 16.27
  October 18, 2009: 13.61
  September 13, 2009: 11.04
  July 12, 2009: 11.42
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $1,972,692
  October 18, 2009: $1,998,992
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$610/SF; condo–$435/SF
  September 2009: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 19.91
  October 18, 2009: 19.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.15
  July 12, 2009: 19.26
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $555,345
  October 18, 2009: $552,197
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$255/SF; condo–$217/SF
  September 2009: house–$254/SF; condo–$213/SF

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 22.84
  October 18, 2009: 23.04
  September 13, 2009: 20.40
  July 12, 2009: 21.75
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $342,823
  October 18, 2009: $339,523
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$147/SF
  September 2009: house–$236/SF; condo–$103/SF

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 17.11
  October 18, 2009: 14.89
  September 13, 2009: 14.24
  July 12, 2009: 12.91
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $967,231
  October 18, 2009: $980,553
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$384/SF; condo–$138/SF
  September 2009: house–$398/SF; condo–$592/SF

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 20.67
  October 18, 2009: 20.18
  September 13, 2009: 17.55
  July 12, 2009: 19.09
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $589,884
  October 18, 2009: $629,922
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$306/SF; condo–$177/SF
  September 2009: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 14.35
  October 18, 2009: 16.09
  September 13, 2009: 14.33
  July 12, 2009: 8.43
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $1,230,423
  October 18, 2009: $1,202,962
• Redfin median sold price
  November 2009: house–$308/SF; condo–n/a
  September 2009: house–$376/SF; condo–n/a