Sweet Orange

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of homes in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: For the most part, I let you peruse these numbers yourself and decide what they mean. However, I will point out that list price and the sold price for homes in Newport Beach, the highest priced Central Orange County housing market, went down. And the list price and the sold price for homes in Santa Ana, the lowest priced Central Orange County housing market, went up.

Also, since I like to compare and contrast Irvine and Costa Mesa, here are some observations on the housing market in these two cities: The list price and the selling price for single-family homes in Costa Mesa went down. However, the selling price for Costa Mesa condos went up. In Irvine, the list price for single-family homes went down, but the selling price for both single-family homes and condos went up.

The Altos index numbers (which are for single-family homes only) show the health of these two markets to be about equal; however, the Altos numbers also show that the Irvine housing market is trending in a more positive direction.

Note that the selling price that I am referring to in the above paragraphs is the price per square foot. The list price is the overall list price.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the Central Orange County housing market:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 20.20
  October 18, 2009: 20.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.97
  July 12, 2009: 21.13
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $566,785
  October 18, 2009: $570,626
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$333/SF; condo–$262/SF
  September 2009: house–$403/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 22.79
  October 18, 2009: 23.86
  September 13, 2009: 20.72
  July 12, 2009: 26.05
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $592,377
  October 18, 2009: $598,615
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$219/SF
  September 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$304/SF

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 17.80
  October 18, 2009: 17.86
  September 13, 2009: 16.63
  July 12, 2009: 14.50
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $760,492
  October 18, 2009: $770,762
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$374/SF; condo–$334/SF
  September 2009: house–$344/SF; condo–$344/SF

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–45%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 19.98
  October 18, 2009: 19.21
  September 13, 2009: 17.18
  July 12, 2009: 18.31
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $831,685
  October 18, 2009: $863,177
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$357/SF; condo–$331/SF
  September 2009: house–$338/SF; condo–$318/SF

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 17.28
  October 18, 2009: 16.83
  September 13, 2009: 12.31
  July 12, 2009: 11.90
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $869,961
  October 18, 2009: $860,346
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$302/SF; condo–$277/SF
  September 2009: house–$260/SF; condo–$275/SF

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 16.27
  October 18, 2009: 13.61
  September 13, 2009: 11.04
  July 12, 2009: 11.42
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $1,972,692
  October 18, 2009: $1,998,992
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$610/SF; condo–$435/SF
  September 2009: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 19.91
  October 18, 2009: 19.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.15
  July 12, 2009: 19.26
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $555,345
  October 18, 2009: $552,197
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$255/SF; condo–$217/SF
  September 2009: house–$254/SF; condo–$213/SF

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 22.84
  October 18, 2009: 23.04
  September 13, 2009: 20.40
  July 12, 2009: 21.75
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $342,823
  October 18, 2009: $339,523
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$147/SF
  September 2009: house–$236/SF; condo–$103/SF

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 17.11
  October 18, 2009: 14.89
  September 13, 2009: 14.24
  July 12, 2009: 12.91
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $967,231
  October 18, 2009: $980,553
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$384/SF; condo–$138/SF
  September 2009: house–$398/SF; condo–$592/SF

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 20.67
  October 18, 2009: 20.18
  September 13, 2009: 17.55
  July 12, 2009: 19.09
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $589,884
  October 18, 2009: $629,922
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$306/SF; condo–$177/SF
  September 2009: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  December 13, 2009: 14.35
  October 18, 2009: 16.09
  September 13, 2009: 14.33
  July 12, 2009: 8.43
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  December 13, 2009: $1,230,423
  October 18, 2009: $1,202,962
• Redfin median sold price
  November 2009: house–$308/SF; condo–n/a
  September 2009: house–$376/SF; condo–n/a

Today, we will take a look at how the North Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The most interesting numbers are for the highest priced market in this area, Yorba Linda, and the lowest price area, Stanton.

According to the Altos index numbers for North Orange County, the Yorba Linda housing market has the least healthy outlook, and Stanton has the healthiest outlook. However, as shown by the index numbers, the housing market in all North Orange County cities is a buyers’ market. This is a repeat of what was happening in May.

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. The Altos numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of houses in each city that are detached.

Anaheim: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 73%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $364,232
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 22.19
  July 5: 23.69

Brea: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 89%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $550,327
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 16.57
  July 5: 20.14

Buena Park: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 85%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $357,945
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 21.09
  July 5: 23.32

Cypress: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 67%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $502,327
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 20.12
  July 5: 25.82

Fullerton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 78%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $545,955
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 18.90
  July 5: 21.41

Garden Grove: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 78%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $376,622
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 26.00
  July 5: 27.56

La Habra: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 69%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $508,236
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 21.56
  July 5: 21.64

La Palma: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 81%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $606,200
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 18.77
  July 5: 18.65

Placentia: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 75%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $527,559
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 18.14
  July 5: 20.49

Stanton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 66%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $309,736
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 25.48
  July 5: 23.67

Westminster: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 87%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $451,536
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 23.12
  July 5: 27.83

Yorba Linda: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 79%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $804,377
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 15.00
  July 5: 17.88

The  Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). Irvine has slightly more condos on the market than detached homes.

Following are the Altos Market Action Index numbers for Irvine. According to these numbers, the Irvine housing market is declining deeper out of the sellers’ favor. Of course, if you want to buy in Irvine, you would use different words. In that case, you would say that the market is improving in the buyers’ favor.

As I noted in the Costa Mesa housing index report, for the first time since I have been watching the Altos index, the index is showing that the Irvine housing market is lagging behind the Costa Mesa housing market. The lag is slight, but it makes me wonder if this is the start of a fall for Irvine housing prices, which have held up relatively well so far.

If so, this could be a sign of a significant change in the Orange County housing market. It could be the signal that the mid- and high-end of the market is about to take price drops similar to what the low-end of the Orange County housing market has already experienced. We will see what happens in the coming months.

Altos Market Action Index for Irvine, CA:

• May 17, 2009: 15.97
• March 22, 2009: 16.35
• February 22, 2009: 16.85
• January 30, 2009: 16.48
• December 31, 2008: 19.31
• November 30, 2008: 18.93
• October 26, 2008: 19.32

Source:  Altos Research