Sweet Orange » Altos Research Market Action Index

Market Report: The Central Orange County Housing Numbers–December 2009

Sylvia Walker — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:12:37 +0000

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of homes in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: For the most part, I let you peruse these numbers yourself and decide what they mean. However, I will point out that list price and the sold price for homes in Newport Beach, the highest priced Central Orange County housing market, went down. And the list price and the sold price for homes in Santa Ana, the lowest priced Central Orange County housing market, went up.

Also, since I like to compare and contrast Irvine and Costa Mesa, here are some observations on the housing market in these two cities: The list price and the selling price for single-family homes in Costa Mesa went down. However, the selling price for Costa Mesa condos went up. In Irvine, the list price for single-family homes went down, but the selling price for both single-family homes and condos went up.

The Altos index numbers (which are for single-family homes only) show the health of these two markets to be about equal; however, the Altos numbers also show that the Irvine housing market is trending in a more positive direction.

Note that the selling price that I am referring to in the above paragraphs is the price per square foot. The list price is the overall list price.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the Central Orange County housing market:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 20.20
October 18, 2009: 20.96
September 13, 2009: 18.97
July 12, 2009: 21.13
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $566,785
October 18, 2009: $570,626
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$333/SF; condo–$262/SF
September 2009: house–$403/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 22.79
October 18, 2009: 23.86
September 13, 2009: 20.72
July 12, 2009: 26.05
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $592,377
October 18, 2009: $598,615
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$219/SF
September 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$304/SF

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 17.80
October 18, 2009: 17.86
September 13, 2009: 16.63
July 12, 2009: 14.50
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $760,492
October 18, 2009: $770,762
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$374/SF; condo–$334/SF
September 2009: house–$344/SF; condo–$344/SF

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–45%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 19.98
October 18, 2009: 19.21
September 13, 2009: 17.18
July 12, 2009: 18.31
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $831,685
October 18, 2009: $863,177
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$357/SF; condo–$331/SF
September 2009: house–$338/SF; condo–$318/SF

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 17.28
October 18, 2009: 16.83
September 13, 2009: 12.31
July 12, 2009: 11.90
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $869,961
October 18, 2009: $860,346
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$302/SF; condo–$277/SF
September 2009: house–$260/SF; condo–$275/SF

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 16.27
October 18, 2009: 13.61
September 13, 2009: 11.04
July 12, 2009: 11.42
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $1,972,692
October 18, 2009: $1,998,992
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$610/SF; condo–$435/SF
September 2009: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 19.91
October 18, 2009: 19.96
September 13, 2009: 18.15
July 12, 2009: 19.26
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $555,345
October 18, 2009: $552,197
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$255/SF; condo–$217/SF
September 2009: house–$254/SF; condo–$213/SF

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 22.84
October 18, 2009: 23.04
September 13, 2009: 20.40
July 12, 2009: 21.75
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $342,823
October 18, 2009: $339,523
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$147/SF
September 2009: house–$236/SF; condo–$103/SF

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 17.11
October 18, 2009: 14.89
September 13, 2009: 14.24
July 12, 2009: 12.91
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $967,231
October 18, 2009: $980,553
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$384/SF; condo–$138/SF
September 2009: house–$398/SF; condo–$592/SF

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 20.67
October 18, 2009: 20.18
September 13, 2009: 17.55
July 12, 2009: 19.09
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $589,884
October 18, 2009: $629,922
Redfin median sold price:
November 2009: house–$306/SF; condo–$177/SF
September 2009: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

Altos Research Market Index Number:
December 13, 2009: 14.35
October 18, 2009: 16.09
September 13, 2009: 14.33
July 12, 2009: 8.43
Altos median list price for detached house:
December 13, 2009: $1,230,423
October 18, 2009: $1,202,962
Redfin median sold price
November 2009: house–$308/SF; condo–n/a
September 2009: house–$376/SF; condo–n/a

Market Report: The North Orange County Housing Numbers–October 2009

Sylvia Walker — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:51:29 +0000

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the North Orange County housing market.

Summary: In general, according to the Altos Research index numbers, the housing market is improving in North Orange County. However, the housing markets for all North Orange County cities are still buyers’ markets. Then again, Garden Grove and Stanton, which have Altos index numbers just shy of 30, are approaching a sellers’ market. As has been true for some time, the low-end of the housing market in North Orange County is doing better than the high-end.

Anaheim: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 70%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $374,408
August 16,2009: $364,232
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 26.24
August 16, 2009: 22.19
July 5, 2009: 23.69
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$241/SF; condo–$217/SF

Brea: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 90%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $551,288
August 16,200: $550,327
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 19.98
August 16, 2009: 16.57
July 5, 2009: 20.14
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$271/SF; condo–$207/SF

Buena Park: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 85%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $363,731
August 16,2009: $357,945
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 26.23
August 16, 2009: 21.09
July 5, 2009: 23.32
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$266/SF; condo–$174/SF

Cypress: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 70%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $532,196
August 16,200: $502,327
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 22.57
August 16, 2009: 20.12
July 5, 2009: 25.82
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$276/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fullerton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $561,908
August 16,2009: $545,955
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 21.24
August 16, 2009: 18.90
July 5, 2009: 21.41
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$248/SF; condo–$208/SF

Garden Grove: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $377,958
August 16,200): $376,622
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 29.34
August 16, 2009: 26.00
July 5, 2009: 27.56
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$280/SF; condo–$214/SF

La Habra: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 70%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $481,831
August 16,2009): $508,236
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 22.75
August 16, 2009: 21.56
July 5, 2009: 21.64
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$241/SF; condo–$142/SF

La Palma: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $581,795
August 16,2009): $606,200
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 21.99
August 16, 2009: 18.77
July 5, 2009: 18.65
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: n/a

Placentia: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 75%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $526,823
August 16,2009): $527,559
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 20.33
August 16, 2009: 18.14
July 5, 2009: 20.49
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$252/SF; condo–$126/SF

Stanton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 65%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $314,192
August 16,2009: $309,736
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 29.45
August 16, 2009: 25.48
July 5, 2009: 23.67
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$238/SF; condo–$200/SF

Westminster: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 85%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $451,135
August 16,2009) $451,536
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 27.03
August 16: 23.12
July 5, 2009: 27.83
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$274/SF; condo–$202/SF

Yorba Linda: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

Altos Research median list price:
October 18, 2009: $772,069
August 16,2009: $804,377
Altos Research Market Action Index:
October 18, 2009: 17.42
August 16, 2009: 15.00
July 5 2009: 17.88
Redfin median sold price:
September 2009: house–$248/SF; condo–$260/SF

Housing Report, South Orange County Detached Houses: Altos Research Market Index Numbers, September 2009

Sylvia Walker — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 09:14:42 +0000

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home on the market in each city that are detached.

To see which homes are currently on the market as well as which homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city (listing price, price per square foot, etc.), click on the index number for each city.

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

September 20, 2009: 20.37
July 19, 2009: 18.09

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

September 20, 2009: 14.32
July 19, 2009: 15.68

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

September 20, 2009: 17.38
July 19, 2009: 6.20

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–82%

September 20, 2009: 13.69
July 19, 2009: 11.84

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–48%

September 20, 2009: 16.27
July 19, 2009: 13.26

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–62%

September 20, 2009: 16.69
July 19, 2009: 15.23

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached–5%

September 20, 2009: 3.04
July 19, 2009: 6.07

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached–61%

September 20, 2009: 16.95
July 19, 2009: 17.37

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

September 20, 2009: 18.69
July 19, 2009: 16.23

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

September 20, 2009: 16.45
July 19, 2009: 16.64

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–76%

September 20, 2009: 14.95
July 19, 2009: 12.67

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

September 20, 2009: 13.24
July 19, 2009: 10.86

Summary: According to the index numbers, all South Orange County markets for detached houses are buyers’ markets. In general, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has increased since July 19th; however, the index number still show South Orange County housing is in a weaker position than the North or Central areas.

The hard-hit area of Ladera Ranch saw the biggest improvement. The detached houses in the 55+ community of Laguna Woods is the weakest housing market in South Orange County. But only about 5% of these homes are detached, so this number is not that telling.

High-End Orange County Homes Taking a Price Dive–Revisited

Sylvia Walker — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 09:03:02 +0000

Back in May, I wrote that the Altos Market Action Index numbers are showing the low-end of the Orange County housing market to be healthier than the high-end. An article by Kelli Hart in Sunday’s Orange County Register backs up the theory (”Luxury homes fall into slump“). It seems that the high-end of the housing market is going through something similar to what the low-end has experienced.

Hart gives these Real Data Strategies numbers:

From July 2008 to the end of June, home priced at $1 million and more received an average price reduction of 14.2 percent. By comparison, homes priced at $500,000 and less received an average price reduction of 7.6 percent.

And Hart quotes broker Phil Immel as saying:

“Last recession, in the early ’90s, oceanfront (houses) dropped 50 percent before stabilizing.”

Following are the current Altos Research index numbers for some of the high-end Orange County housing markets. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. For comparison, Irvine is currently 18.01, and Costa Mesa is currently 17.70. And often criticized Santa Ana scores best with an index number of 20.53. Santa Ana’s current list price for a single-family home, according to Altos Research, is $326,573.

I also included, in bold, the current (August 16, 2009) Altos median list price for each of these housing markets.

Altos Market Action Indexes

Corona Del Mar: $2,411,818 median list price
May 22, 2009: 12.28
August 16, 2009: 9.97
Dana Point: $1,040,681 median list price
May 22, 2009: 12.16
August 16, 2009: 13.68
Laguna Beach: $2,270,116 median list price
May 22, 2009: 10.38
August 16, 2009: 13.27
Newport Beach: $1,948,468 median list price
May 22, 2009: 10.11
August 16, 2009: 9.80
Newport Coast: $3,157,636 median list price
May 22, 2009: 10.18
August 16, 2009: 11.54
Villa Park: $1,247,864 median list price
May 22, 2009: 7.36
August 16, 2009: 10.78

Market Watch: Costa Mesa Housing Stats and Foreclosures Numbers

Sylvia Walker — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 09:03:01 +0000

Following are some recent housing numbers, including the foreclosure numbers, for Costa Mesa that are broken down by ZIP code. These numbers, provided by Trulia, are for condo and detached homes combined.

Alto Research numbers, which are for detached homes only, currently give Costa Mesa a Market Action Index of 17.70 (30 or below is a buyers’ market). According to Redfin, approximately 70% of the Costa Mesa homes on market are detached.

Also, according to an article by Matt Padilla, the rate of foreclosures fell in both Costa Mesa ZIPs: The 92627 foreclosure rate dropped by 37 percent, and the 92626 rate dropped somewhere between 40% to 59% from the previous year. However, as the numbers below show, although the rate of foreclosures is decreasing in Costa Mesa, the number of foreclosures is still high.

92626 (South Coast Metro, Central, Mesa Verde)

Average List Price (week ending 8-05-09): $599,086 ($304 per SF)
Median Selling Price (May-July 2009): $495,000
% home that are in foreclosure: 52.6%*
(163 new and resale homes for sale, as well as 181 foreclosures**)

92627 (Eastside, Central, Southwest)

Average List Price (week ending 8-05-09): $587,880 ($376 per SF)
Median Selling Price (May-July 2009): $467,500
% home that are in foreclosure: 50.3%*
(237 new and resale homes for sale, as well as 240 foreclosures**)

*Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages.

**homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process

COSTA MESA HOME SALES GRAPH COURTESY CITY-DATA.COM

Tomorrow: some Costa Mesa community data numbers

Central Orange County Housing Report: Gauging the Detached Homes Status

Sylvia Walker — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 09:02:43 +0000

Yesterday, we took a look at some housing market numbers for North Orange County. Today, we will take a look at how the Central Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 12, 2009. The Altos numbers are updated each week, so if you click on the Altos index numbers for each city, you will see the July 19 numbers (or the most recent index number). In most cases, the July 19 numbers show that the market has retreated further into a buyers’s market in just this one week.

Also, note that the Altos numbers for Central Orange County show a similar story when it comes to the high-end and low-end of the housing market: Central Orange County cities with the highest-priced homes have some of the least favorable market index number (for example, Newport Beach, Villa Park and Los Alamitos). And the Central Orange County cities with lower-priced homes have some of the most favorable market index numbers (for example, Santa Ana). However, as shown by the numbers, the housing market in all of these cities is a buyers’ market.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name.

Note: The brown line in the graphs is the Altos Market Action Index 90-day median; the black line is the Altos Market Action Index 7-day median.

Costa Mesa: