Sweet Orange

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the North Orange County housing market.

Summary: In general, according to the Altos Research index numbers, the housing market is improving in North Orange County. However, the housing markets for all North Orange County cities are still buyers’ markets. Then again, Garden Grove and Stanton, which have Altos index numbers just shy of 30, are approaching a sellers’ market. As has been true for some time, the low-end of the housing market in North Orange County is doing better than the high-end.

Anaheim: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 70%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $374,408
  August 16,2009: $364,232
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 26.24
  August 16, 2009: 22.19
  July 5, 2009: 23.69
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$241/SF; condo–$217/SF

Brea: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 90%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $551,288
  August 16,200: $550,327
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 19.98
  August 16, 2009: 16.57
  July 5, 2009: 20.14
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$271/SF; condo–$207/SF

Buena Park: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 85%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $363,731
  August 16,2009: $357,945
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 26.23
  August 16, 2009: 21.09
  July 5, 2009: 23.32
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$266/SF; condo–$174/SF

Cypress: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 70%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $532,196
  August 16,200: $502,327
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 22.57
  August 16, 2009: 20.12
  July 5, 2009: 25.82
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$276/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fullerton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $561,908
  August 16,2009: $545,955
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 21.24
  August 16, 2009: 18.90
  July 5, 2009: 21.41
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$248/SF; condo–$208/SF

Garden Grove: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $377,958
  August 16,200): $376,622
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 29.34
  August 16, 2009: 26.00
  July 5, 2009: 27.56
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$280/SF; condo–$214/SF

La Habra: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 70%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $481,831
  August 16,2009): $508,236
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 22.75
  August 16, 2009: 21.56
  July 5, 2009: 21.64
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$241/SF; condo–$142/SF

La Palma: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $581,795
  August 16,2009): $606,200
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 21.99
  August 16, 2009: 18.77
  July 5, 2009: 18.65
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: n/a

Placentia: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 75%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $526,823
  August 16,2009): $527,559
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 20.33
  August 16, 2009: 18.14
  July 5, 2009: 20.49
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$252/SF; condo–$126/SF

Stanton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 65%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $314,192
  August 16,2009: $309,736
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 29.45
  August 16, 2009: 25.48
  July 5, 2009: 23.67
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$238/SF; condo–$200/SF

Westminster: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 85%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $451,135
  August 16,2009) $451,536
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 27.03
  August 16: 23.12
  July 5, 2009: 27.83
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$274/SF; condo–$202/SF

Yorba Linda: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 80%

• Altos Research median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $772,069
  August 16,2009: $804,377
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 17.42
  August 16, 2009: 15.00
  July 5 2009: 17.88
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$248/SF; condo–$260/SF

As a recent post shows, homes in low-priced areas such as parts of Anaheim, Stanton, and Garden Grove are selling much better than homes in the high-priced areas. MDA DataQuick reports the same:

Sales rose 120 to 150 percent in parts of Anaheim and Stanton where prices ranged from $250,000 to $310,000, reports MDA DataQuick.–”Housing sales jump,” The Orange County Register

The Register article goes on to say that brokers are reporting that homes above $500,000 continue to sell slowly.

So, to check this out, let’s take a look at what is happening in two of these ZIPs that have homes priced on the lower end of the market: Anaheim’s 92804 and 92805.

A DataQuick/Orange County Register chart shows that the number of home sales in July in the 92804 ZIP  increased by 11.9% when compared to the July 2008 sales numbers. However, Trulia shows that the May 2009 to July 2009 sales in the 92804 ZIP decreased by 25.2% when compared to prices of one year ago.

In addition, DataQuick reports that in July Anaheim’s 92805 ZIP, had the second highest increases in the number of sales in Orange County when compared to the same time last year (+123.1%). However, Trulia numbers show a less impressive increase. According to Trulia,  the May 2009 to July 2009 sales in the 92805 ZIP increased by 7.1% when compared to prices of one year ago.

Trulia’s numbers cover a longer time period and, therefore, it is not surprising that the numbers differ. However, watching the numbers from these two sources in the coming months to see if they converge or continue in different directions will be interesting. They should give a clearer picture of which Orange County areas are seeing increases in the number of homes sold and by how much.

Chris Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics, had some comments on what the leading and lagging indicators of market recovery will be for this recession (AirTalk, Larry Mantle, August 7, 2009). (By the way, Tim Quinlan, a Wells Fargo analyst, says that the recession ended in June. Michael Murphy of New World Investor also says the recession is over. Maybe I’ll write more about that later.)

According to Thornberg, the following sectors of the economy are leading us to recovery:

• professional services
• export services

In addition, Thornberg states that, although the manufacturing sector is not growing, this sector  is “firming up.”

Before I go on to state what Thornberg sees as the sectors that will be the lagging indicators in this recovery, here is what Joel Kotkin, a fellow with the New America Foundation, says about the professional services sector:

Media coverage of America’s best jobs usually focuses on blue-collar sectors, like manufacturing, or elite ones, such as finance or technology. But if you’re seeking high-wage employment, your best bet lies in the massive “business and professional services” sector.

This unsung division of the economy is basically a mirror of any and all productive industry. It includes everything from human resources and administration to technical and scientific positions, as well as accounting, legal and architectural posts.–Joel Kotkin, “Best and Worst Cities for High Paying Jobs,” Forbes

Unfortunately for those of us who live in southern California, Forbes ranks Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale as the fourth worst area to find these jobs and the Irvine-Santa Ana-Anaheim area as the seventh worst.

Now for the lagging economic indicators: According to Thornberg, improvement in the following sectors of the economy will not show considerable improvement until sometime after the recovery has begun:

• construction
• finance
• retail

Thornberg, as well as most other economists, sees employment (which is a factor of all of the above mentioned economic sectors) as another lagging indicator. He also states that recovery in each sector will vary from region to region.

Note: For Beacon’s economic forecast, see Beaconomics.

GRAPH COURTESY BEACON ECONOMICS

Yesterday’s post was about the current Anaaheim housing numbers, including a breakdown by ZIP. Following is a closer look at how housing prices have changed over time in one of these ZIPs, Anaheim’s 92804. (This is also the ZIP that contains the Palais Road home that I highlighted last week, “Anaheim Short Sale Showing Badly.”)

According to Trulia , the median price for all homes, detached houses and condos, in Anaheim’s 92804 ZIP was as follows:

• May to July 2009–$303,592
• The previous three months–$297,833
• One year ago–$357,000
• Five years ago–$453,750.

And according to Trulia, 75% of Anaheim homes are distressed.*

According to Redin, the July 2009 median sales price in the 92804 ZIP was as follows:

• detached houses–$240 per square foot
• condos–$147 per square foot

And according to Redfin, 23.1% of Anaheim’s 92804  homes have price reducitons.**

*Defined as homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. In this case the foreclosures are not necessilarly on the market yet (and may not end up on the market).

**Based on homes sold or taken off the market between May 26, 2009 and August 24, 2009.

What’s up with these pictures of the home at 2628 West Palais Road in Anaheim? This short sale has been on the market for only a few days, but I have to wonder if the owner is really interested in selling with pictures like this showing on the MLS online site.

OK, I admit the first picture did get my attention, but not in a good way. And then there is the one of the in-construction bathroom. And the final two pictures: Why the bad lighting? In addition, if you click on the MLS link, you will see a picture of the bedroom curtains tied in a knot. Why?

The asking price is $355,000 ($224/SF) for this 4 bed, 1583 square foot, detached house that was built in 1956 in the Anaheim West of Harbor area. What do you think? Are you enticed to buy?

Note: According to Redfin, the median sales price in July for a detached house in the 92804 ZIP was $240 per square foot. This home sold on June 28, 2002 for $315,500.

Next week: a look at how home prices have changed recently, and over the years, in this low-priced ZIP

Today, we will take a look at how the North Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The most interesting numbers are for the highest priced market in this area, Yorba Linda, and the lowest price area, Stanton.

According to the Altos index numbers for North Orange County, the Yorba Linda housing market has the least healthy outlook, and Stanton has the healthiest outlook. However, as shown by the index numbers, the housing market in all North Orange County cities is a buyers’ market. This is a repeat of what was happening in May.

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. The Altos numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of houses in each city that are detached.

Anaheim: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 73%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $364,232
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 22.19
  July 5: 23.69

Brea: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 89%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $550,327
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 16.57
  July 5: 20.14

Buena Park: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 85%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $357,945
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 21.09
  July 5: 23.32

Cypress: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 67%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $502,327
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 20.12
  July 5: 25.82

Fullerton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 78%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $545,955
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 18.90
  July 5: 21.41

Garden Grove: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 78%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $376,622
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 26.00
  July 5: 27.56

La Habra: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 69%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $508,236
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 21.56
  July 5: 21.64

La Palma: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 81%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $606,200
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 18.77
  July 5: 18.65

Placentia: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 75%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $527,559
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 18.14
  July 5: 20.49

Stanton: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 66%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $309,736
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 25.48
  July 5: 23.67

Westminster: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 87%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $451,536
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 23.12
  July 5: 27.83

Yorba Linda: Approximate % homes on market that are detached: 79%

• Median list price (August 16,2009): $804,377
• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  August 16: 15.00
  July 5: 17.88

In yesterday’s post, I wrote about the Orange County ZIPs that had more foreclosure at this time that the same period one year ago. Today, I am going to highlight the Orange County ZIPs at the other end of the spectrum–OC ZIPs in which the number of foreclosures fell by 60% or more.

They are as follows: 92845 (Garden Grove), 92841 (Garden Grove), 92844 (Garden Grove), 92703 (Santa Ana), 92701 (Santa Ana), 92806 (Anaheim), 92782 (Tustin), 92676 (Silverado). Note that the housing in these ZIPs are mostly at the lower-end of the Orange County housing market.

Also, note these ZIPs that have the largest decrease in foreclosures when compared to last year do not necessarily have the fewest foreclosure. The percentage of distressed properties in these ZIPs, as shown by numbers from Trulia, gives an indication of this (see below).

92845 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $450,000 (however, the average list price is $459,221)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 59 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 67%*

92841 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $360,000 (however, the average list price is $384,205)
• 69 new and resell homes listed
• 204 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 74.7%*

92844 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $255,000 (however, the average list price is $311,368)
• 56 new and resell homes listed
• 169 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75%*

92703 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $235,000 (however, the average list price is $211,449)
• 147 new and resell homes listed
• 411 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 73.7%*

92701 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $130,000 (however, the average list price is $208,792)
• 148 new and resell homes listed
• 448 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75.2%*

92806 (Anaheim)

• Median sold price: $360,100 (however, the average list price is $298,790)
• 74 new and resell homes listed
• 182 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 71%*

92782 (Tustin Ranch)

• Median sold price: $640,000 (however, the average list price is $807,847)
• 172 new and resell homes listed
• 108 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 38.6%*

92676 (Silverado)

• Median sold price: $349,000 (however, the average list price is $893,621)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 39.6%*

*Trulia defines distressed properties as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Sources:

• “O.C. foreclosures plummeted in spring,” Matthew Padilla
• Trulia

Today, we will take a look at how the North Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 5, 2009.

Also, note that the North Orange County city with the highest-priced homes, Yorba Linda, has the least favorable market index number. And many of the North Orange County cities with the lowest-priced homes have some of the most favorable market index numbers. However, as shown by the numbers, the housing market in all of these cities is a buyers’ market.

Anaheim:

• Altos Research Index–23.69
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–73%

Brea:

• Altos Research Index–20.14
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–89%

Brena Park:

• Altos Research Index–23.32
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

Cypress:

• Altos Research Index–25.82
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

Fullerton:

• Altos Research Index–21.41
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–78%

Garden Grove:

• Altos Research Index–27.56
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–74%

La Habra:

• Altos Research Index–21.64
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

La Palma:

• Altos Research Index–18.65
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

Placentia:

• Altos Research Index–20.49
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

Stanton:

• Altos Research Index–23.67
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–66%

Westminster:

• Altos Research Index–27.83
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

Yorba Linda:

• Altos Research Index–17.88
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–79%

Related post:

• Central Orange County Housing Report: Gauging the Detached Homes Market Status
• South Orange County Housing Report: Gauging the Detached Homes Market Status

If you are facing the possibility of foreclosure, here are some ways to find help:

• Contact a Consumer Credit Counseling Services office. Orange County branches are located in Santa Ana (headquarters), Anaheim, Brea, and Costa Mesa. Website: cccsoc.org; Phone: 800-213-2227 (24 hours).
  Consumer Credit Counseling Services in Costa Mesa can be reached at the website or by calling 714-245-1690. The Costa Mesa branch is located at 2701 Harbor Boulevard inside the Costa Mesa Federal Credit Union. English, Spanish, and Vietnamese are spoken at the Costa Mesa branch.
• Attend a free foreclosure prevention workshop at Irvine’s civic center on June 12. At the workshop, individual help will be provided to homeowners. The workshop is made available by the Orange County Home Ownership Preservation Collaborative, the City of Irvine and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). RSVP suggested. Phone: 714-568-0823 X225.
• See the HUD website, or call 877-HUD-1515. In addition to information on housing, loans and foreclosure, this site has a list of HUD-approved counseling agencies.

GRAPHIC COURTESY THE CITY OF IRVINE