Sweet Orange

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County homes priced over $1,000,000. You can pick out the city of interest to you and see what is happening in that market. You can also do some compare and contrast.

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 13.54
  October 18, 2009: 13.39
  September 20, 2009: 13.69
  July 19, 2009: 11.84
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $2,284,654
  October 18, 2009: $2,281,775
• Redfin median sold price
  November 2009: house--$1210/SF; condo–$307/SF
  September 2009: house–$1646/SF; condo–$374/SF

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Action Index: n/a
  
• Altos median list price for detached houses: n/a
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$295/SF; condo–$277/SF
  September 2009: n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 13.85
  October 18, 2009: 14.75
  September 20, 2009: 14.32
  July 19, 2009: 15.68
• Altos median list price:
  December 13 2009: $1,061,681
  October 18, 2009: $1,053,46
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$382/SF; condo–$294/SF
  September 2009: house–$264/SF; condo–$493/SF

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13, 2009: 17.33
  October 18, 2009: 15.03
  September 20, 2009: 13.24
  July 19, 2009: 10.86
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13, 2009: $930,474
  October 18, 2009: $1,021,748
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$281/SF; condo–$217/SF
  September 2009: house–$289/SF; condo–$124/SF

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: When comparing the North, Central and South Orange County housing markets, North Orange County is in the best shape, next is Central Orange County, and last is South Orange County. As is true for the North and Central areas, the low-end of the South Orange County market is in better shape than the high-end.

The housing difficulties started with the low-end of the Orange County housing market and worked their way up to the high-end of the market. Likewise, when this downturn first started, the housing difficulties were more prevalent in North Orange County (an area that is generally less expensive than Central or South Orange County), and then reached Central Orange County and is currently having the biggest impact on South Orange County.

High-end Laguna Beach, the only South Orange County city that saw a decrease in the Altos index number, went deeper into a buyers’ market. And according to the Altos index numbers, the more affordably priced Aliso Viejo has the strongest housing market in South Orange County. For more on the Aliso Viejo housing market, see Jon Lansner’s post “Hardest O.C. city to find a home? Aliso Viejo!”

However, according to the Altos index numbers, all South Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. The bottom line is that no level or area of the Orange County housing market is being spared during this downturn.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County housing market:

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 22.68
  September 20, 2009: 20.37
  July 19, 2009:  18.09
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $595,254
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$186/SF

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  n/a
  
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  n/a
• Redfin median sold price:
  n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 14.75
  September 20, 2009: 14.32
  July 19, 2009: 15.68
• Altos median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $1,053,46
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$264/SF; condo–$493/SF

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 17.38
  July 19, 2009: 6.20
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $834,077
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–n/a

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 13.39
  September 20, 2009: 13.69
  July 19, 2009: 11.84
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $2,281,775
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house--$1646/SF; condo–$374/SF

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.69
  September 20, 2009: 16.27
  July 19, 2009: 13.26
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $850,712
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$405/SF; condo–$142/SF

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.26
  September 20, 2009: 16.69
  July 19, 2009: 15.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $791,188
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$304/SF; condo–$239/SF

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached–5%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 6.48
  September 20, 2009: 3.04
  July 19, 2009: 6.07
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $260,054
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$153/SF

Note: Laguna Wood is a 55+ community. HOA fees are usually at least $600; many are substantially higher than this.

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached–60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 16.95
  July 19, 2009: 17.37
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $515,250
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$276/SF; condo–$254/SF

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 21.04
  September 20, 2009: 18.69
  July 19, 2009: 16.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $539,279
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$302/SF; condo–$252/SF

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.83
  September 20, 2009: 16.45
  July 19, 2009: 16.64
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $546,546
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$299/SF; condo–$279/SF

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 16.07
  September 20, 2009: 14.95
  July 19, 2009: 12.67
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $869,131
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$222/SF; condo–$345/SF
  

Note: The price per square foot for a San Clemente house is down 40% from the previous month; the condo price is down only 1%.

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 15.03
  September 20, 2009: 13.24
  July 19, 2009: 10.86
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $1,021,748
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$289/SF; condo–$124/SF

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home on the market in each city that are detached.

To see which homes are currently on the market as well as which homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city (listing price, price per square foot, etc.), click on the index number for each city.

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 20, 2009: 20.37
• July 19, 2009:  18.09

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 20, 2009: 14.32
  
• July 19, 2009: 15.68

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 20, 2009: 17.38
  
• July 19, 2009: 6.20

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–82%

• September 20, 2009: 13.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 11.84

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–48%

• September 20, 2009: 16.27
  
• July 19, 2009: 13.26

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–62%

• September 20, 2009: 16.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 15.23

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached–5%

• September 20, 2009: 3.04
  
• July 19, 2009: 6.07

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached–61%

• September 20, 2009: 16.95
  
• July 19, 2009: 17.37

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

• September 20, 2009: 18.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 16.23

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

• September 20, 2009: 16.45
  
• July 19, 2009: 16.64

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–76%

• September 20, 2009: 14.95
  
• July 19, 2009: 12.67

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

• September 20, 2009: 13.24
  
• July 19, 2009: 10.86

Summary: According to the index numbers, all South Orange County markets for detached houses are buyers’ markets. In general, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has increased since July 19th; however, the index number still show South Orange County housing is in a weaker position than the North or Central areas.

The hard-hit area of Ladera Ranch saw the biggest improvement. The detached houses in the  55+ community of Laguna Woods is the weakest housing market in South Orange County. But only about 5% of these homes are detached, so this number is not that telling.

Back in May, I wrote that the Altos Market Action Index numbers are showing the low-end of the Orange County housing market to be healthier than the high-end. An article by Kelli Hart in Sunday’s Orange County Register backs up the theory (”Luxury homes fall into slump“). It seems that the high-end of the housing market is going through something similar to what the low-end has experienced.

Hart gives these Real Data Strategies numbers:

From July 2008 to the end of June, home priced at $1 million and more received an average price reduction of 14.2 percent. By comparison, homes priced at $500,000 and less received an average price reduction of 7.6 percent.

And Hart quotes broker Phil Immel as saying:

“Last recession, in the early ’90s, oceanfront (houses) dropped 50 percent before stabilizing.”

Following are the current Altos Research index numbers for some of the high-end  Orange County housing markets. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. For comparison, Irvine is currently 18.01, and Costa Mesa is currently 17.70. And often criticized Santa Ana scores best with an index number of 20.53. Santa Ana’s current list price for a single-family home, according to Altos Research, is $326,573.

I also included, in bold, the current (August 16, 2009) Altos median list price for each of these housing markets.

Altos Market Action Indexes

• Corona Del Mar: $2,411,818 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 12.28
  August 16, 2009: 9.97
• Dana Point: $1,040,681 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 12.16
  August 16, 2009: 13.68
• Laguna Beach: $2,270,116 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 10.38
  August 16, 2009: 13.27
• Newport Beach: $1,948,468 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 10.11
  August 16, 2009: 9.80
• Newport Coast: $3,157,636 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 10.18
  August 16, 2009: 11.54
• Villa Park: $1,247,864 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 7.36
  August 16, 2009: 10.78

According to an article in The Orange County Register by Matthew Padilla, the percentage of foreclosures increased 50% or more in the following Orange County ZIP codes: 90740 (Seal Beach), 92823 (Brea), 92604 (Irvine-Woodbridge), 92625 (Corona del Mar), 92651 (Laguna Beach), 92629 (Dana Point), 92679 (Trabuco Canyon).

However, this does not mean that these ZIPs have the highest number of foreclosures when compared to the number of homes in each of these Orange County ZIPS–only that they are seeing the biggest increase in the number of foreclosure when compared to the same period one year ago.

According to Trulia, the percentage of home on the market in each of these ZIPs that are distressed sales is as shown below. Trulia defines distressed as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

90740 (Seal Beach)

• Median sold price: $710,000 (however, the average list price is $406,381)
• 334 new and resell homes listed
• 35 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 9.5%

92823 (Brea)

• Median sold price: $569,000 (however, the average list price is $742,482)
• 34 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 36%

92604 (Irvine, Woodbridge)

• Median sold price: $494,500 (however, the average list price is $580,821)
• 85 new and resell homes listed
• 112 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 57%

92625 (Corona del Mar)

• Median sold price:$1,260,000 (however, the average list price is $2,781,408)
• 246 new and resell homes listed
• 54 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 18%

92651 (Laguna Beach)

• Median sold price:$1,100,000 (however, the average list price is $3,746,754)
• 515 new and resell homes listed
• 111 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 17.7%

92629 (Dana Point)

• Median sold price:$650,000 (however, the average list price is $1,693,055 )
• 299 new and resell homes listed
• 163 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 35.3%

92679 (Trabuco Canyon, Dove Canyon, Coto de Caza)

• Median sold price:$640,000 (however, the average list price is $1,648,131)
• 324 new and resell homes listed
• 256 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 44%

While they did not have as large a percentage increase as the ZIPs listed above, the following ZIPS also had an increase in the percentage of foreclosures (1%-49%):

• 90623 (La Palma)
• 92649 (Huntington Beach)
• 92886 (Yorba Linda)
• 92614 (Irvine, Woodbridge)
• 92692 (Mission Viejo)
• 92673 (San Clemente)
• 92672 (San Clemente)

In all  other Orange County ZIPs (those not listed in this post), the percentage of foreclosures decreased when compared to a year ago (June 2008). Again, this does not mean that these ZIPs had the smallest percentage of foreclosure–only the smallest increase from the previous year.

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Tomorrow: a look at the O.C. ZIPs in which the increase in foreclosures decreased by 60% or more from the previous year. Hint: They are mostly at the lower-end of the market.

Previously, we took a look at some housing market numbers for North Orange County and Central Orange County. Today, we will take a look at how the South Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 19, 2009.

Note: The brown line in the graphs is the Altos Market Action Index 90-day median; the black line is the Altos Market Action Index 7-day median.

For more numbers associated with each city, click on the city name or Altos Research index number.

Aliso Viejo:

• Altos Research Index– 18.09
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

Coto De Caza:

• Altos Research Index–na
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

Dana Point:

• Altos Research Index– 15.68
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

Ladera Ranch:

• Altos Research Index–16.20
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

Laguna Beach:

• Altos Research Index–11.84
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–82%

Laguna Hills:

• Altos Research Index–13.26
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–48%

Laguna Niguel:

• Altos Research Index–15.23
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–62%

Laguna Woods:

• Altos Research Index–6.07
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–6%

Lake Forest:

• Altos Research Index–17.37
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–61%

Mission Viejo:

• Altos Research Index– 16.23
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

Rancho Santa Margarita:

• Altos Research Index–16.64
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

San Clemente:

• Altos Research Index–12.67
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–76%

San Juan Capistrano:

• Altos Research Index–10.86
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

Recently, I wrote that the Altos Market Action Index is showing Costa Mesa has a healthier housing market than Irvine does. This was something to note since this has not been the case for some time.

So I was wondering what the Altos Research indexes might tell us about the high-end of the Orange County housing market. Here is what I found out. Remember above 30 is a sellers’ market, and below 30 is a buyers’ market. For comparison, Irvine is currently 15.97, and Costa Mesa is currently 16.29.

Altos Market Action Indexes

• Corona Del Mar: 12.28
• Dana Point: 12.16
• Laguna Beach: 10.38
• Newport Beach: 10.11
• Newport Coast: 10.18
• Villa Park: 7.36

Now compare those numbers to the number for the often disparaged Santa Ana housing market, which currently has an Altos index of 18.48. By these numbers, Santa Ana housing is still a buyers’ market but is in better condition than many high-end areas as well as in better condition than Costa Mesa and Irvine’s housing market.

Santa Ana to high-priced home areas: Come in; the water is, well….