Sweet Orange

Yesterday’s post was about the current Anaaheim housing numbers, including a breakdown by ZIP. Following is a closer look at how housing prices have changed over time in one of these ZIPs, Anaheim’s 92804. (This is also the ZIP that contains the Palais Road home that I highlighted last week, “Anaheim Short Sale Showing Badly.”)

According to Trulia , the median price for all homes, detached houses and condos, in Anaheim’s 92804 ZIP was as follows:

• May to July 2009–$303,592
• The previous three months–$297,833
• One year ago–$357,000
• Five years ago–$453,750.

And according to Trulia, 75% of Anaheim homes are distressed.*

According to Redin, the July 2009 median sales price in the 92804 ZIP was as follows:

• detached houses–$240 per square foot
• condos–$147 per square foot

And according to Redfin, 23.1% of Anaheim’s 92804  homes have price reducitons.**

*Defined as homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. In this case the foreclosures are not necessilarly on the market yet (and may not end up on the market).

**Based on homes sold or taken off the market between May 26, 2009 and August 24, 2009.

According to DataQuick/OC Register, Anaheim’s July 2009 housing numbers by ZIP are as follows.

The percent change is the percentage increase or decrease that results when current numbers are compared to the numbers of one year ago. Anaheim contains some of North Orange County’s lower-priced areas. (Stanton currently has the lowest median list price housing in North Orange County.)

The Anaheim Altos Market Action Index for the week ending August 23, 2009 is 22.38. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

According to Redfin, 29.1% of Anaheim homes have price reducitons.* According to Trulia, 68% of Anaheim homes are distressed.**

*Based on homes sold or taken off the market between May 26, 2009 and August 24, 2009.

**Defined as homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. In this case the foreclosures are not necessilarly on the market yet (and may not end up on the market).

In yesterday’s post, I wrote about the Orange County ZIPs that had more foreclosure at this time that the same period one year ago. Today, I am going to highlight the Orange County ZIPs at the other end of the spectrum–OC ZIPs in which the number of foreclosures fell by 60% or more.

They are as follows: 92845 (Garden Grove), 92841 (Garden Grove), 92844 (Garden Grove), 92703 (Santa Ana), 92701 (Santa Ana), 92806 (Anaheim), 92782 (Tustin), 92676 (Silverado). Note that the housing in these ZIPs are mostly at the lower-end of the Orange County housing market.

Also, note these ZIPs that have the largest decrease in foreclosures when compared to last year do not necessarily have the fewest foreclosure. The percentage of distressed properties in these ZIPs, as shown by numbers from Trulia, gives an indication of this (see below).

92845 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $450,000 (however, the average list price is $459,221)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 59 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 67%*

92841 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $360,000 (however, the average list price is $384,205)
• 69 new and resell homes listed
• 204 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 74.7%*

92844 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $255,000 (however, the average list price is $311,368)
• 56 new and resell homes listed
• 169 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75%*

92703 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $235,000 (however, the average list price is $211,449)
• 147 new and resell homes listed
• 411 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 73.7%*

92701 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $130,000 (however, the average list price is $208,792)
• 148 new and resell homes listed
• 448 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75.2%*

92806 (Anaheim)

• Median sold price: $360,100 (however, the average list price is $298,790)
• 74 new and resell homes listed
• 182 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 71%*

92782 (Tustin Ranch)

• Median sold price: $640,000 (however, the average list price is $807,847)
• 172 new and resell homes listed
• 108 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 38.6%*

92676 (Silverado)

• Median sold price: $349,000 (however, the average list price is $893,621)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 39.6%*

*Trulia defines distressed properties as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Sources:

• “O.C. foreclosures plummeted in spring,” Matthew Padilla
• Trulia

The following information provides some insight into the status of the housing market in Orange County. In addition to shedding light on the percentage of Orange County housing that is in distress, this information shows that, although most statistics provide helpful information, considering all data with some skepticism is wise.

According to Steve Thomas of Altera Real Estate, on April 30, 2009, 35.9% of the Orange County homes on the market were in distress. Here is the Altera Orange County breakdown:

• 10,363 homes on the market as shown by the active-listing inventory
• 3,724 distressed homes on the market
• 35.9% of Orange County homes in distress (Source: Altera Realty)

Altera numbers also stated that 29.6% of Irvine homes on the market were in distress. Here is Altera’s Irvine breakdown:

• 686 homes listed for sale
• 203 homes in either foreclosure or a short sale
• 29.6% of Irvine homes in distress (Source:Altera Realty)

However, at that time, Trulia numbers showed a more pessimistic picture. Here is Trulia’s Irvine breakdown:

• 1810 resale and new homes on the market
• 741 homes in pre-foreclosure, auction or bank-owned stage of foreclosure
• 41% of Irvine homes in distress (Source: Trulia)

In addition, Trulia’s numbers showed that Costa Mesa has an even higher percentage of distressed homes on the market than Irvine.

• 780 resale and new homes on the market
• 416 homes in pre-foreclosure, auction or bank-owned stage of foreclosure
• 53 % of Costa Mesa homes in distress (Source: Trulia)

All these numbers are helpful, but, as you see, the Altera numbers show a rosier picture for the Irvine housing market than the Trulia numbers do.

In addition, based on these numbers, most would conclude that the Irvine housing market is in better shape than Costa Mesa’s. However, according to recent Altos Research numbers, the Costa Mesa housing market is in slightly better shape than Irvine’s, and both the Irvine and Costa Mesa housing markets are in better shape that the high-end beach communities.

The bottom line is that the numbers can be worked many different ways, and sometimes the same numbers are used to support opposing viewpoints. So, buyer beware, and look at a range of statistics from different sources to get a clear picture of market conditions.

Update: I just came across some articles on this subject by Jonathan Lansner: “Playing the numbers” and “Perhaps home sales haven’t bottomed yet.“  In the first, he writes about the varying home depreciation numbers that different companies report. In the second, John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting gives a perspective on the subject. SW 6-3-09