Sweet Orange

Up today is an update of the median price that homes in Irvine have sold for. This includes all the Irvine neighborhoods (or villages as they are called in Irvine): Northpark, West Irvine, Northwood, Portola Springs, Woodbury, El Camino, Walnut, Columbus Grove, University Park, University Town Center, Orange Tree, Oak Creek, Westpark, the IBC (airport area), San Joaquin, Shady Canyon, Turtle Ridge, Turtle Rock and Quail Hill.

Irvine Median Sold Price/SF-Condos

Unless otherwise noted, the source for the following numbers is DQNew.

Irvine Median Sold Price/SF-Houses

Median Selling Price in Irvine

• November 2010: $562,000 (down 3.44% y-o-y)
• October 2010: $522,500 (down 9.91% y-o-y)
• September 2010: $625,000 (up 16.93% y-o-y)
  Redfin’s numbers: $575,000 (no change y-o-y) or $336/SF (down 2.0% y-o-y)
• August 2010: $580,000 (up 1.9% y-o-y)
  Redfin’s numbers: $600,000  (up 4.3% y-o-y) or $344/SF (up 3.3% y-o-y)
• July 2010: $580,000 (up 6.62% y-o-y)
  Redfin’s numbers: $570,000 (up 5.1% y-o-y) or $339/SF (up 1.2% y-o-y)

Graphs Courtesy Redfin

Up today are the Costa Mesa housing numbers. This includes all areas of  Costa Mesa: Eastside, Westside, Central, Southwest, South Coast Metro, Mesa Verde. Unless otherwise noted, the stats are provide by DQNews.

Median Sold Price/SF–Houses

Median Selling Price in Costa Mesa

• October 2010: $495,000 (down 5.58% y-o-y)
• September 2010: $477,500 (down 1.55% y-o-y)
• August 2010: $462,000 (down12.00% y-o-y)
  Redfin’s numbers: $482,000  (up 1.4% y-o-y) or $304/SF (up 4.4% y-o-y)
• July 2010: $505,000 (up 0.3% y-o-y)
  Redfin’s numbers: $485,000  (down 4.9% y-o-y) or $318/SF (up 4.4% y-o-y)

Median Sold Price/SF–Condos

Number of Sales in Costa Mesa

• October 2010: 45
• September 2010: 66
• August 2010: 49
  Redfin’s numbers: houses=41 (down 34.9% y-o-y), condos=29 (up 7.4% y-o-y)
• July 2010: 59
  Redfin’s numbers: houses sold=49, condos sold=26

Graphs Courtesy Redfin

Up today is Irvine’s 92614 ZIP housing numbers. This ZIP  includes part of the Westpark neighborhood and lower Woodbridge.

The photo is of 87 Briarglen #27 in Woodbridge. This 2 bedroom condo is priced near the median selling price for homes in this ZIP; however, the price per square foot ($412) is above this ZIP’s median. Also, both Zillow and eppraisal estimate the value of this home to be approximately $350,000. This home has been on the market for approximately 5 months.

92614 Median Selling Price

• July 2010: $429,500 (down 6.4% y-o-y)
• June 2010: $425,000 (down 20.3% y-o-y)
  Note: Redfin’s June 2010 numbers are $502,000  (down 15.8% y-o-y) or $345/SF (up 7.8% y-o-y).
• May 2010: $555,000 (down 11.0% y-o-y)
• April 2010: $591,000 (up 45.9% y-o-y)
• March 2010: $525,000 (up 46.14% y-o-y)

92614 Number of Sales

• July 2010: 25 (up 44.8% y-o-y)
• June 2010: 16 (up 25.0% y-o-y)
• May 2010: 24 (up 11.1% y-o-y)
• April 2010: 25 (up 25.0% y-o-y)
• March 2010: 21 (up 61.54% y-o-y)

Source unless otherwise noted: DQnews

Up today is Irvine’s 92604 ZIP numbers. This ZIP  includes the Upper Woodbridge and El Camino neighborhoods.

The photo is of 4931 Karen Ann Lane, a five-bedroom, single-family, custom-built home in El Camino. This home was built in 2009 and is currently the most expensive home on the market in this ZIP. However, at $217 per square foot, this home has a low price per square foot when compared to other homes in the area.

92604 Median Selling Price

• July 2010: $440,000 (down 15.4% y-o-y)
• June 2010: $575,000 (up 5.5% y-o-y)
• May 2010: $530,000 (up 6.2% y-o-y)
  For comparison: Redfin’s May 2010 number is $538,000 (up 8.8% y-o-y) or $340/SF (down 2.4% y-o-y).
• April 2010: $587,000 (up 17.4% y-o-y)
• March 2010:$525,000 (up 3.96% y-o-y)

92604 Number of Sales

• July 2010: 19 (down 20.8% y-o-y)
• June 2010: 31 (up 47.6% y-o-y)
• May 2010: 25 (up 8.7% y-o-y)
• April 2010: 35 (up 191.7% y-o-y)
• March 2010: 36 (up 89.47% y-o-y)

Source unless otherwise noted: DQnews

Cash-in-hand converts to house-in-hand in current market

MDA DataQuick had the following to report on the number of Southern California homes that are bought but do not end up being occupied by the owner:

Absentee buyers - mostly investors and some second-home purchasers - bought 18.9 percent of the homes sold in February. Buyers who appeared to have paid all cash - meaning there was no indication that a corresponding purchase loan was recorded - accounted for 29.3 percent of February sales. In January it was a revised 29.7 percent - an all-time high. The 22-year monthly average for Southland homes purchased with cash is 13.8 percent.

As would be expected, some of these absentee buyers are flippers. According to DataQuick’s DQNews, 3.4% of Southern California homes were flipped* last month (February 2010). This is up 1.6% from February 2009.

This brings up the question: What is the optimum percentage of homes that should be owner-occupied versus rentals? Urban Land Institute (ULI) predicts that homeownership levels in the U.S. will stabilize at 62% to 64%.** Whether or not that is the optimum level is a discussion that I’ll leave for another time.

*Flipped is defined as bought and sold within a three-week to six-month period.

**The U.S. homeownership rate is currently approximately 67% and was approximately 45% between 1900 and 1945. I’ll have more on this in an upcoming post. You can also read more about this in the ULI report “Housing in America: The Next Decade,”

According to DQNews, the number of Notice of Defaults (NODs) in California was 12.4% higher in the 2009 fourth quarter than it was in the 2008 fourth quarter. The number of fourth quarter trustee sales was also up: 10.6% more foreclosure sales occurred in fourth quarter 2008 than occurred in fourth quarter 2009.

Now here is where the numbers get tricky: In spite of the year-over-year increase in the overall numbers, foreclosure sales as a percentage of the housing market declined. In Q4-2009, 40.7% of the resales in California were foreclosure sales. However, in Q4-2008, 54.4% of resales in California were foreclosure sales.

The first set of numbers (the overall number of foreclosure sales) seem to be telling us that foreclosure sales are becoming more prevalent. But the second set of numbers (the number of foreclosure sales as a percentage of the total sales) seem to be telling us that foreclosures are becoming less prevalent.

In addition, more conflicting numbers exist:

DQNews states that the number of NODs declined between the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2009. And John Walsh, DataQuick president, had this to say about the foreclosure market:

Clearly, many lenders and servicers have concluded that the traditional foreclosure process isn’t necessarily the best way to process market distress, and that losses may be mitigated with so-called short sales or when loan terms are renegotiated with homeowners.

But many analysts are predicting a sizable increase in defaults when the terms for many outstanding loans adjust upward in the coming year. For example:

Amid falling home prices and a nasty labor market, roughly 1 in every 7 mortgages was either past due or in foreclosure by the end of the third quarter-the highest delinquency rate in the 37-year history of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey. Two factors are expected to drive delinquencies even higher next year. First, nearly 1 in 4 homeowners currently owes more on their mortgage than the property is worth, which increases their odds of default. And secondly, the national unemployment rate-which already stands at 10 percent-will peak at about 10.5 percent in the first quarter of 2010, says Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight. Additional job losses mean more borrowers won’t be able to pay their mortgage bills-”10 Things to Know About Real Estate in 2010,” Luke Mullins, U.S News & World Report

This quote from U.S. News & World Report is referencing the national housing market, but this would apply to Southern California as well.

Which homesellers are more grounded in reality, Costa Mesa or Irvine homesellers? Take a look at the following numbers and decide for yourself. Keep in mind that the median and average are not the same.* If you want to check out the reality gap for your ZIP, see the Trulia ZIP code list.

Redfin graph for the median price per SF for Irvine single-family houses**

Irvine

• Average list price: $927,077 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $560,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Irvine was $615,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Irvine was $533,000.

Redfin graph for the median price per SF for Costa Mesa single-family houses**

Costa Mesa

• Average list price: $581,194 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $515,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Costa Mesa was $467,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Costa Mesa was $485,000.

Redfin graph for September Orange County single-family house price/SF**

Finally, for comparison, some Orange County September housing numbers: Redfin shows that the September median list price  was $515,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price was $428,000.

When comparing homesellers in Irvine, Costa Mesa and Orange County as a whole, it seems that Costa Mesa homesellers get the most-in-touch-with-reality award.

*Do not confuse this term [median) with the [term] average. They can be quite different for the same sample group. For instance, if you are doing a sold properties report and the homes are very evenly distributed, the median and average might be very similar. However, if the homes sold were weighted more to one end or the other of the price spectrum, then the median and average could be quite different.-About.com: Real Estate Business

**The above graphs are for single-familly houses. To see the the condo price per square foot graph for each area. click on the Redfin links found on this page. Then click on the “Add graph to your site” link.