Now here is where the numbers get tricky: In spite of the year-over-year increase in the overall numbers, foreclosure sales as a percentage of the housing market declined. In Q4-2009, 40.7% of the resales in California were foreclosure sales. However, in Q4-2008, 54.4% of resales in California were foreclosure sales.

The first set of numbers (the overall number of foreclosure sales) seem to be telling us that foreclosure sales are becoming more prevalent. But the second set of numbers (the number of foreclosure sales as a percentage of the total sales) seem to be telling us that foreclosures are becoming less prevalent.

In addition, more conflicting numbers exist:

DQNews states that the number of NODs declined between the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2009. And John Walsh, DataQuick president, had this to say about the foreclosure market:

Clearly, many lenders and servicers have concluded that the traditional foreclosure process isn’t necessarily the best way to process market distress, and that losses may be mitigated with so-called short sales or when loan terms are renegotiated with homeowners.

But many analysts are predicting a sizable increase in defaults when the terms for many outstanding loans adjust upward in the coming year. For example:

Amid falling home prices and a nasty labor market, roughly 1 in every 7 mortgages was either past due or in foreclosure by the end of the third quarter-the highest delinquency rate in the 37-year history of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey. Two factors are expected to drive delinquencies even higher next year. First, nearly 1 in 4 homeowners currently owes more on their mortgage than the property is worth, which increases their odds of default. And secondly, the national unemployment rate-which already stands at 10 percent-will peak at about 10.5 percent in the first quarter of 2010, says Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight. Additional job losses mean more borrowers won’t be able to pay their mortgage bills-”10 Things to Know About Real Estate in 2010,” Luke Mullins, U.S News & World Report

This quote from U.S. News & World Report is referencing the national housing market, but this would apply to Southern California as well.

Here are the most recent Orange County foreclosure numbers from DQNews:

Notice of Defaults (NODs)–This is the first step in the foreclosure process; however, this does not necessarily end in the home being taken back by the lender.

Fourth Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–5,555
• 2008–4,481
• This is a 24.0% year-over-year increase. However, the quarter-to-quarter number of NODs deceased.

Third Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–7,436
• 2008—5,692
• This is a 30.6% year-over-year increase.

Trustee Sales Recorded–This is the last step in the foreclosure process. The home is sold to a new owner at a trustee auction or taken back by the lender in this stage of the foreclosure process.

Fourth Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–2,235
• 2008–2,088
• This is a 7.0% year-over-year increase. In addition, the quarter-to-quarter number of trustee sales is approximately the same.

Third Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–2,238
• 2008—3,997
• This is a 44.0% year-over-year decrease.

801 S Lyon Sreett #33 Santa Ana, CA 92705: condo with one bedroom

• estimated value: $177,870
• last sold on July 19, 2005 for $142,500
• list price: $61,900

215 Knox Street Costa Mesa, CA 92627: single-family home with two bedrooms/two baths

• estimated value of $598,137
• last sold on July 28, 2009 for $427,174
• list price: $609,000

3771 Claremont Street Irvine, CA 92614: single-family home with three-bedrooms

• estimated value of $546,837
• last sold on August 28, 2009 for $510,000
• list price: $509,500

10520 Lakeside Drive N, Garden Grove, CA 92840: single-family home with two-bedrooms/one-bath home

• estimated value: $264,622
• last sold: n/a
• list price: $110,000

1025 W Bishop Street, Santa Ana, CA 92703: single-family home with three-bedrooms/three baths

• estimated value: n/a
• last sold: n/a
• list price: $103,500

144 Orange Blossom, Irvine, CA 92618: 1976 condo with two bedrooms/one bath

• estimated value: $239,933
• last sold: n/a
• list price: $278,000

Up first is a look at some North Orange County foreclosures numbers. Note that the information for all the following homes is from Foreclosed Home, not the MSL. Also, note that I am defining “unsuccessful foreclosure” to mean that the home went through a trustee sale; however,  there were no bidders. Therefore, the home went back to the lending institution. For a look at when the foreclosure auction occurs in the foreclosure process, see one of IrvineRenter’s posts.

6372 Los Robles Avenue, Buena Park, CA 90621:

• approximately 2 months between unsuccessful foreclosure auction and listing date
• Days on Market (listing date to current date)*: approximately 55

7565 Fillmore Drive,  Buena Park, CA 90620:

• approximately 2 months between unsuccessful foreclosure auction and listing date
• Days on Market (listing date to current date)*: approximately 55

7750 Bolsa Avenue #7 Midway City, CA 92655:

• approximately 2 days between unsuccessful foreclosure auction and listing date
• Days on Market (listing date to current date)*: approximately 70

9786 Debiois Avenue Fountain Valley, CA 92708:

• approximately 1 months between unsuccessful foreclosure auction and listing date
• Days on Market (listing date to current date)*: approximately 33

4342 La Cadena Circle, Yorba Linda, CA 9288:

• approximately 1 day between unsuccessful foreclosure auction and listing date
• Days on Market (listing date to current date)*: approximately 20

If you click on Redfin’s map of foreclosed homes, you will see that North and Central Orange County have approximately the same number of foreclosed homes. South Orange County has the least. Coming up: We’ll take a look at some similar information for Central and South Orange County.

*As the name implies, Days on Market is the number of days that the home has been on the market. This number is determined by adding up the number of days that exist between the date that the home was listed to the current date, which in this case is December 2, 2009.

The Orange County Credit Union is offering a free workshop today (September 10) from 7 pm to 8 pm at the Yorba Linda library. If you are unhappy with your current loan, here is a place where you can receive information on your options.

The workshop will cover the following:

• Who is eligible for loan modifications?
• What modifications are the banks willing to make?
• How should you approach the banks for a modification?

For more information, call the Library Information Desk at 714-777-2873, extension 6.

Also, the Orange County Credit Union’s website warns of the following foreclosure scams:

• Phantom help: The con artists claim they can negotiate an agreement with your lender but they require an upfront fee. They may also ask you to start paying your mortgage to them….
• Rent to own: The con artists claim that by giving them the title to your house, they will take over your mortgage payments (or find an investor who will) but allow you to stay and pay a reasonable rent….
• Fake refinancing: The con artists claim that they are refinancing your loan to bring it current and have you sign the “loan papers.”…
• Buyer scouting: The con artists guarantee that they will find a buyer for you, and you will both split the profits when the home sells….

To read more on this, see the Orange County Credit Union website  section on foreclosure scams.

Remember: Free foreclosure prevention and mortgage modification help is available; be wary on anyone who asks you for a fee. If you think that you are a victim of a mortgage scam, contact the Federal Trade Commission, (877)-FTC-HELP, and your state’s attorney general office (California Office of the Attorney General).

GRAPHIC COURTESY THE CITY OF IRVINE

They are as follows: 92845 (Garden Grove), 92841 (Garden Grove), 92844 (Garden Grove), 92703 (Santa Ana), 92701 (Santa Ana), 92806 (Anaheim), 92782 (Tustin), 92676 (Silverado). Note that the housing in these ZIPs are mostly at the lower-end of the Orange County housing market.

Also, note these ZIPs that have the largest decrease in foreclosures when compared to last year do not necessarily have the fewest foreclosure. The percentage of distressed properties in these ZIPs, as shown by numbers from Trulia, gives an indication of this (see below).

92845 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $450,000 (however, the average list price is $459,221)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 59 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 67%*

92841 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $360,000 (however, the average list price is $384,205)
• 69 new and resell homes listed
• 204 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 74.7%*

92844 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $255,000 (however, the average list price is $311,368)
• 56 new and resell homes listed
• 169 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75%*

92703 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $235,000 (however, the average list price is $211,449)
• 147 new and resell homes listed
• 411 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 73.7%*

92701 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $130,000 (however, the average list price is $208,792)
• 148 new and resell homes listed
• 448 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75.2%*

92806 (Anaheim)

• Median sold price: $360,100 (however, the average list price is $298,790)
• 74 new and resell homes listed
• 182 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 71%*

92782 (Tustin Ranch)

• Median sold price: $640,000 (however, the average list price is $807,847)
• 172 new and resell homes listed
• 108 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 38.6%*

92676 (Silverado)

• Median sold price: $349,000 (however, the average list price is $893,621)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 39.6%*

*Trulia defines distressed properties as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Sources:

• “O.C. foreclosures plummeted in spring,” Matthew Padilla
• Trulia

However, this does not mean that these ZIPs have the highest number of foreclosures when compared to the number of homes in each of these Orange County ZIPS–only that they are seeing the biggest increase in the number of foreclosure when compared to the same period one year ago.

According to Trulia, the percentage of home on the market in each of these ZIPs that are distressed sales is as shown below. Trulia defines distressed as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

90740 (Seal Beach)

• Median sold price: $710,000 (however, the average list price is $406,381)
• 334 new and resell homes listed
• 35 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 9.5%

92823 (Brea)

• Median sold price: $569,000 (however, the average list price is $742,482)
• 34 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 36%

92604 (Irvine, Woodbridge)

• Median sold price: $494,500 (however, the average list price is $580,821)
• 85 new and resell homes listed
• 112 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 57%

92625 (Corona del Mar)

• Median sold price:$1,260,000 (however, the average list price is $2,781,408)
• 246 new and resell homes listed
• 54 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 18%

92651 (Laguna Beach)

• Median sold price:$1,100,000 (however, the average list price is $3,746,754)
• 515 new and resell homes listed
• 111 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 17.7%

92629 (Dana Point)

• Median sold price:$650,000 (however, the average list price is $1,693,055 )
• 299 new and resell homes listed
• 163 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 35.3%

92679 (Trabuco Canyon, Dove Canyon, Coto de Caza)

• Median sold price:$640,000 (however, the average list price is $1,648,131)
• 324 new and resell homes listed
• 256 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 44%

While they did not have as large a percentage increase as the ZIPs listed above, the following ZIPS also had an increase in the percentage of foreclosures (1%-49%):

• 90623 (La Palma)
• 92649 (Huntington Beach)
• 92886 (Yorba Linda)
• 92614 (Irvine, Woodbridge)
• 92692 (Mission Viejo)
• 92673 (San Clemente)
• 92672 (San Clemente)

In all  other Orange County ZIPs (those not listed in this post), the percentage of foreclosures decreased when compared to a year ago (June 2008). Again, this does not mean that these ZIPs had the smallest percentage of foreclosure–only the smallest increase from the previous year.

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Tomorrow: a look at the O.C. ZIPs in which the increase in foreclosures decreased by 60% or more from the previous year. Hint: They are mostly at the lower-end of the market.

Here is a look at what happened to two of these homes.

126 Tangerine, Irvine 92618

• Approximate amount owed plus interest and fees: $507,868.95
• Details: 2bed/2 bath, detached home with 1133 SF
• Scheduled auction date: 2-5-09
• Sold for: $357,000 on April 13, 2009
• Side note: On March 14, 2009, the list price was increased from $359,000 to $410,000.

426 Orange Blossom #202, Irvine 92618

• Approximate amount owed plus interest and fees: $265,535.07
• Details: 1bed/1 bath, condo with 661 SF
• Scheduled auction date: 1-28-09
• Sold for: $268,814 on February 20, 2009
• Side note: On February 28, 2009, this home went on the market again for $205,057. On June 2, 2009, the price was reduced to $179,900; however, this listing is no longer active.

For a look at what is currently on the market in Orangetree, as well as what has sold recently, see the Orangetree map.

For more information on Orangetree, see this post: “A Look at the Housing Numbers for Irvine’s Orange Tree Neighborhood.“

Following are some Irvine housing number from Trulia. These numbers are for all Irvine homes (detached and condos). To see previous Redfin numbers for the Irvine housing market, see my past posts “The Irvine Detached Home Report” and “The Irvine Condo Report.” To see what the Altos Research Market Action Index, which covers detached home only, says about the Irvine housing market, see “The Irvine Housing Index Says….”

Based on 338 homes sold from March to May 2009 (down 37.3% from the same period one year ago), the Irvine median selling price was as follows:

Median Sold Price: $550,000

• up 2.8% from the previous quarter
• down 5.9% from the same period of the previous year
• down 5.2% when compared to the same period of 5 years ago

A comparison of the sold price to the list price, shows that the two numbers are not in the same ballpark: The average listing price for week ending June 3, 2009 was $962,442 ($330/SF). However, I should note that Trulia’s sold price is the median, and Trulia’s list price is the average.

The number of Irvine homes currently on the market according to Trulia breaks down as follows:

• number of homes on the market: 1854
• number of these homes  that are in distress*: 791
• 43% of Irvine homes on the market are in distress
  

Source: Trulia

*Distressed homes are defined as those that are in pre-foreclosure, trustee auction. or bank-owned stage of the foreclosure process.

]]> http://www.sweetorangehousing.com/2009/06/11/the-irvine-housing-report-median-selling-price-foreclosures-number-of-homes-sold/feed/ http://www.sweetorangehousing.com/2009/06/09/the-costa-mesa-housing-report-median-selling-price-foreclosures-and-number-of-homes-sold/ http://www.sweetorangehousing.com/2009/06/09/the-costa-mesa-housing-report-median-selling-price-foreclosures-and-number-of-homes-sold/#comments Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:00:02 +0000 Sylvia Walker http://www.sweetorangehousing.com/?p=4469

Following are some Costa Mesa housing number from Trulia. These numbers are for all Costa Mesa homes (detached and condos). To see what the Altos Research Market Action Index says about the Costa Mesa housing market, see “The Costa Mesa Housing Index Says….” And to see previous Redfin numbers for the Costa Mesa housing market, see my past posts “The Costa Mesa Detached Home Report” and “The Costa Mesa Condo Report.”

The average listing price for week ending May 27, 2009 was $587,398 ($328/SF). Based on 204 homes sold from February to April 2009 (up 14% from the previous quarter), the Costa Mesa median selling price was as follows:

Median Sold Price: $465,000

• up 3.3% from the previous quarter
• down 12.3% from the same period of the previous year
• down 14.8% when compared to the same period of 5 years ago

The percent of Costa Mesa homes on the market that are currently in distress is as follows:

% of homes that are in distress*: 56%

• number of homes on the market: 789
• number of homes  that are in distress*: 438

Source: Trulia

*Distressed homes are defined as those that are in pre-foreclosure, trustee auction. or bank-owned stage of the foreclosure process.

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