Sweet Orange » Glendale http://www.sweetorangehousing.com Is the Orange County housing juice worth the squeeze? Sat, 04 Feb 2012 05:24:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 en hourly 1 What Will Lead Us to Recovery? The Leading and Lagging Economic Indicators http://www.sweetorangehousing.com/2009/08/27/what-will-lead-us-to-recovery-the-leading-and-lagging-economic-indicatiors/ http://www.sweetorangehousing.com/2009/08/27/what-will-lead-us-to-recovery-the-leading-and-lagging-economic-indicatiors/#comments Thu, 27 Aug 2009 09:26:16 +0000 Sylvia Walker http://www.sweetorangehousing.com/?p=8148 beaconomicsphpChris Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics, had some comments on what the leading and lagging indicators of market recovery will be for this recession (AirTalk, Larry Mantle, August 7, 2009). (By the way, Tim Quinlan, a Wells Fargo analyst, says that the recession ended in June. Michael Murphy of New World Investor also says the recession is over. Maybe I’ll write more about that later.)

According to Thornberg, the following sectors of the economy are leading us to recovery:

  • professional services
  • export services

In addition, Thornberg states that, although the manufacturing sector is not growing, this sector  is “firming up.”

Before I go on to state what Thornberg sees as the sectors that will be the lagging indicators in this recovery, here is what Joel Kotkin, a fellow with the New America Foundation, says about the professional services sector:

Media coverage of America’s best jobs usually focuses on blue-collar sectors, like manufacturing, or elite ones, such as finance or technology. But if you’re seeking high-wage employment, your best bet lies in the massive “business and professional services” sector.

This unsung division of the economy is basically a mirror of any and all productive industry. It includes everything from human resources and administration to technical and scientific positions, as well as accounting, legal and architectural posts.–Joel Kotkin, “Best and Worst Cities for High Paying Jobs,” Forbes

Unfortunately for those of us who live in southern California, Forbes ranks Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale as the fourth worst area to find these jobs and the Irvine-Santa Ana-Anaheim area as the seventh worst.

Now for the lagging economic indicators: According to Thornberg, improvement in the following sectors of the economy will not show considerable improvement until sometime after the recovery has begun:

  • construction
  • finance
  • retail

Thornberg, as well as most other economists, sees employment (which is a factor of all of the above mentioned economic sectors) as another lagging indicator. He also states that recovery in each sector will vary from region to region.

Note: For Beacon’s economic forecast, see Beaconomics.


GRAPH COURTESY BEACON ECONOMICS

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