Sweet Orange

The  Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). Irvine has slightly more condos on the market than detached homes.

Following are the Altos Market Action Index numbers for Irvine. According to these numbers, the Irvine housing market is declining deeper out of the sellers’ favor. Of course, if you want to buy in Irvine, you would use different words. In that case, you would say that the market is improving in the buyers’ favor.

As I noted in the Costa Mesa housing index report, for the first time since I have been watching the Altos index, the index is showing that the Irvine housing market is lagging behind the Costa Mesa housing market. The lag is slight, but it makes me wonder if this is the start of a fall for Irvine housing prices, which have held up relatively well so far.

If so, this could be a sign of a significant change in the Orange County housing market. It could be the signal that the mid- and high-end of the market is about to take price drops similar to what the low-end of the Orange County housing market has already experienced. We will see what happens in the coming months.

Altos Market Action Index for Irvine, CA:

• May 17, 2009: 15.97
• March 22, 2009: 16.35
• February 22, 2009: 16.85
• January 30, 2009: 16.48
• December 31, 2008: 19.31
• November 30, 2008: 18.93
• October 26, 2008: 19.32

Source:  Altos Research

Irvine’s Rancho San Joaquin: Median Price per Square Foot Housing Number Trend

Following are the housing numbers for Irvine’s Rancho San Joaquin neighborhood. The homes on the market in this area are all condos, which is also true for Irvine’s University Town Center and Irviine Business Complex, which is also known as the IBC or the airport area.  (The Orange Tree neighborhood is mostly condos but does include a few detached homes.)

As shown by the Redfin graph that cover July 2007 to the present, the median sold price per square foot for homes in Rancho San Joaquin hit a low in April 2008. Since that time, the median price per square foot has had some ups and downs but has always stayed above the April 2008 low. As shown by the Redfin numbers listed below, the overall median sold price for Rancho San Joaquin homes since the beginning of 2009 has stayed constant ($420,000 to $425,000). Redfin stats also state that no Rancho San Joaquin homes sold in January 2009.

Trulia statistics show that the overall median sales price is down 1.2% from the previous quarter; down 29.3% from the previous year, and down 13.4% from five years ago. Trulia also states that the average price per square foot changed 0% from when compared to the same time last year.  According to the Trulia stats, only 3 San Joaquin homes sold in the first quarter of 2009.

These various numbers—some going up, some going down, some going sideways—show a complex picture of what is happening in the San Joaquin housing market.

For more information on housing in this area, see the Rancho San Joaquin map.

April 4, 2009

• Median List price: $537K/$331 per SF
• Median Sold price: $424K/$339 per SF*
• Median days on market: 107*
• Number of homes on the market: 14
  (0 detached/14 condos; 0 Bank and MSL foreclosures)

February 26, 2009

• Median List price: $537,000/$331 per SF
• Median Sold price: $420K/$277 per SF*
• Median days on market: 179*
• Number of homes on the market: 16
  (0 detached/16 condos; Bank and MSL foreclosures)

January 31, 2009

• Median List price: $429,000/$330 per SF
• Median Sold price: $422K/$334 per SF*
• Median days on market: 137.5*
• Number of homes on the market: 9

December 30, 2008

• Median List price: $434,450/$348 per SF
• Median Sold price: $425K/$392 per SF*
• Median days on market: 116*
• Number of homes on the market: 8

Sources: Redfin; Trulia

Tomorrow: A look at Irvine’s Orange Tree numbers

Tuesday: The Highs, the Lows and the In Between: A Closer Look at Housing in Irvine’s Rancho San Joaquin Village

Irvine’s University Town Center: Sold Price per Square Foot Trend

Listed below are the statistics for homes in Irvine’s University Town Center neighborhood. As the name implies, the homes in this area are near the University of California at Irvine (UCI). All on the homes on the market in this area are condos; some were bought as investment property.

The numbers for this area show a complicated story. As shown by the numbers listed below, the overall price of homes in this area that have sold since the beginning of the year have been declining. However, the same period shows an increase in the price per square foot that these homes have sold for. Throw into the mix the fact that, although many peaks and valleys exist (see the graph found above), the overall price per square foot trend shows a steady decline. So is this current increase a sign of things to come, or just another peak that will turn into another valley? Too soon to tell.

For more information on homes for sale in this area, see the  map.

April 3, 2009

• List price: $422K/$411 per SF
• Sold price: $408K/$358 per SF*
• Median days on market: 186*
• Number of homes on the market: 8
  ( 0 foreclosures)

February 28, 2009

• List price: $428,000/$401 per SF
• Sold price: $415K/$352 per SF*
• Median days on market: 100*
• Number of homes on the market: 9
  (0 foreclosures)

January 31, 2009

• List price: $439,750/$409 per SF
• Sold price: $498K/$326 per SF*
• Median days on market: 89*
• Number of homes on the market: 8

December 30, 2008

• List price: $432,000/$401 per SF
  
• Sold price: $295K/$384 per SF*
• Median days on market: 58*
• Number of homes on the market: 11

*Based on homes sold or taken off the market in the previous 90 days