Sweet Orange

Up today is Irvine’s 92604 ZIP numbers. This ZIP  includes the Upper Woodbridge and El Camino neighborhoods.

The photo is of 4931 Karen Ann Lane, a five-bedroom, single-family, custom-built home in El Camino. This home was built in 2009 and is currently the most expensive home on the market in this ZIP. However, at $217 per square foot, this home has a low price per square foot when compared to other homes in the area.

92604 Median Selling Price

• July 2010: $440,000 (down 15.4% y-o-y)
• June 2010: $575,000 (up 5.5% y-o-y)
• May 2010: $530,000 (up 6.2% y-o-y)
  For comparison: Redfin’s May 2010 number is $538,000 (up 8.8% y-o-y) or $340/SF (down 2.4% y-o-y).
• April 2010: $587,000 (up 17.4% y-o-y)
• March 2010:$525,000 (up 3.96% y-o-y)

92604 Number of Sales

• July 2010: 19 (down 20.8% y-o-y)
• June 2010: 31 (up 47.6% y-o-y)
• May 2010: 25 (up 8.7% y-o-y)
• April 2010: 35 (up 191.7% y-o-y)
• March 2010: 36 (up 89.47% y-o-y)

Source unless otherwise noted: DQnews

Up next on our Costa Mesa then-and-now tour is 458 Swarthmore Lane 92626, which is a 3 bed/1.75 bath, single-family home in College Park (Central Costa Mesa).

Asking price in November 2009: $539,000 or $393 per SF

Current status: This College Park home sold in December 2009 for the November 2009 asking price, $539,000 or $393 per SF.

HOA and Mellos Roos: none listed

Of note: Current estimates for this home are from $454,000 to $548,000.

Up next on our Costa Mesa then-and-now tour is 2296 La Playa Drive 92627, which is a  2 bed/2.5 bath, single-family home in Eastside Costa Mesa.

Asking price in November 2009: $574,900 or $396 per SF then changed to $549,900 or $379/SF

Current status: This Eastside home is currently off the market. This home was on the market in August 2006 and then delisted and relisted numerous times since then. Most recently, this home was delisted in February 2010.

HOA and Mellos Roos: no Mellos Roos but an small HOA fee

Of note: This home sold in January 2005 for $625,000. Current estimates for value of this home are from $497,000 to $697,000.

Up next on our Costa Mesa then-and-now tour is 157 Del Mar Avenue 92627:, which is a 3 bed/2.75 bath, single-family home in Eastside Costa Mesa.

Asking price in November 2009: On November 2, 2009, the asking price was $599,000 or $408 per SF; however, on November 18, 2009, the price was reduced to $579,900 or $394/SF.

Current status: This home sold on the fourteenth of this month for $571,000 or $388 per SF.

HOA and Mellos Roos: none listed

Of note: This Eastside home was on the market in December 2008 but did not sell until June 2010.

Up next on our then-and-now tour of the Costa Mesa housing market is 2189 Tustin Avenue 92627, a 3 bed/2.5 baths, single-family home in Eastside Costa Mesa.

Asking price in November 2009: $1,249,000 or $416 per SF

Current status: This Eastside home sold in December 2009 for $985,000 or $328 per SF.

HOA and Mellos Roos: none listed

Of note: The first listing for this home shows up in June 2009; at this time the asking price was the same as the November 2009 asking price, $1,249,000. The asking price was reduced in December 2009 to $1,095,000. Current estimates for this home range from $950,000 to $1,008,000.

Here are some quotes from a post in a recent John Burns Consulting newsletter. They provide some food for thought when deciding if housing prices are going up, down, or sideways:

When forced to answer the question, we [John Burns Consulting] say that most home prices are reverting to 2003 prices - some areas have overcorrected and some have not fully corrected. While that covers our butt nationally, we know the truth is much different depending on what submarket or pool of homes you are talking about.

…

If you read the newspapers, you would think prices are appreciating, whether it is the Case Shiller price index or median resale prices - the two price measures that used to be the most reliable measures…

According to CS, prices are up 6% in LA (includes Orange Co.) and 11% in San Diego since March of 2009. According to the median price, prices are up 12% in LA, 17% in Orange County, 12% in Riverside and 18% in San Diego since April of 2009. Neither is correct if you are talking about most homes in those markets.

…

According to a [Realtor Survey of Existing Home Prices] survey, prices only recently started appreciating in Orange County, and they are still trending down very slightly in the rest of Southern California.

…

To understand home prices (and all else housing-related for that matter), you need to look at everything. If you are making a decision based on headline data or a regression to the mean, you are taking a lot of risk.

Click on the link to see the rest of this John Burns Consulting newsletter.

Following are some home for sale in Costa Mesa’s Mesa Verde area. My intention is to follow these homes to see how home values hold up in this area. I will do this in two ways: I will report how the eventual selling price compares to the current list price, and I will report what some of the appraisal sites list as the home value.

1659 New Hampshire Drive, Mesa Verde, Costa Mesa

• What: 1971 single-family home with 3 bedrooms/2 baths
• Size: 1775 SF
• Fees/taxes: No HOA or Mello Roos
• Asking price: $639,000 ($360/SF)
• Listed in September 2009 for: $699,000

Appraisals for1569 New Hampshire Drive: Low/Medium/High

• Zillow: $417,350/$491,000/$520,460
• Eppraisal: $442,018/$520,022/$598,025
• Cyberhomes: $447,460 /$497,178/$571,754

1778 Iowa Street, Mesa Verde, Costa Mesa

• What: 1960 single-family home with 3 bedrooms/2 baths
• Size: 1571 SF
• Fees/taxes: No HOA or Mello Roos
• Asking price: $595,000 ($379/SF)
• Sold in January 2004 for: $550,000.

Appraisals for 1778 Iowa Street: Low/Medium/High

• Zillow: $419,475/$493,500/$537,915
• Eppraisal: $433,401/$509,884/$586,366
• Cyberhomes: $384,870/$427,634/$491,779

Here is an example of a home that sold for more than the list price. This home, which is in Irvine’s El Camino neighborhood, was listed on August 12, 2009, for $415,000, delisted on August 19, then relisted on September 8 for $415,000. This El Camino condo sold on 10/19/2009 for $437,500, approximately $22,000 more than the asking price.

8 Pierre Irvine, CA 92604 (El Camino neighborhood)

• 3 beds/2 baths
• 1223 SF
• Condo built in 1977
• HOA: $175
• Asking price: $415,000 ($339/SF)
• Selling price: $437,500 ($358/SF)

Current estimates for this home:

• Cyberhomes: $406,828.
• Eappraisal: $362,930
• Zillow: $438,000.

What do homeowners think has happened to the value of their homes? According to Zillow’s Homeowners Confidence Survey, which came out at the beginning of this year and asked homeowners how much, if any, the value of their home decreased in 2008, the answers are as follows:

• In the South, 48% thought that their home lost value. The reality is that 70% lost value.
• In the Midwest, 59% thought that their home lost value. The reality is that 73% lost value.
• In the West, 70% thought that their home lost value. The reality is that 90% lost value.
• In the Northeast, 58% thought that their home lost value. The reality is that 71% lost value.

Zillow’s report also stated that 70% of U.S. homeowner thought that their home would increase or stay the same in the beginning of 2009.

Source: Marilyn Kalfus, “We’re beginning to admit our houses are worth less,” The Orange County Register, February 12, 2009

DQNews Southern California Median Home Sales Price, October 2009

If you follow the housing news, you have probably read and heard numerous times that the median price for an Orange County home has gone up in recent months. For example, DQNews reports that the October median selling price for Orange County homes is up 3.9% from last October.

However, a report by The Real Estate Research Council of Southern California, which is located at Cal Poly Pomona, provides a different picture. Housing appraisers provide the input for the report by reviewing a sample of homes every October and April. The sample consists of the same homes being appraised and compared during each appraisal cycle.

Here are the October 2009 results:

• Orange County home prices are falling 15% annually. (The April report showed that O.C. home prices were down 14% from the previous April.)
• Orange County housing prices have been falling for three years.
• The amount of decline varies by region:
  –North Orange County: down 20.9%
  –Central Orange County: down 17.7%
  –South Orange County and beach areas: down 9%

A report by mortgage insurer PMI Group also shows a decline in Orange County housing prices. The PMI report states that the value of Orange County homes in the second quarter of this year was down 7.81%. In addition, PMI calculates that Orange County housing prices have a 99.9% chance of declining in the next two years.

A likely explanation for the conflicting pictures that the various numbers are painting is as follows: More homes at the mid- and high-end of the market are selling now than in the recent past. This brings up the median price for Orange County homes as a whole, but individual home prices might still be decreasing.

Sources:
Jonathan Lansner, “Appraisers see O.C. home prices off 15%,” The Orange County Register
Kristen Schott, “Orange County among 10 riskiest housing markets nationwide.” OC Metro