Sweet Orange

Which homesellers are more grounded in reality, Costa Mesa or Irvine homesellers? Take a look at the following numbers and decide for yourself. Keep in mind that the median and average are not the same.* If you want to check out the reality gap for your ZIP, see the Trulia ZIP code list.

Redfin graph for the median price per SF for Irvine single-family houses**

Irvine

• Average list price: $927,077 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $560,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Irvine was $615,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Irvine was $533,000.

Redfin graph for the median price per SF for Costa Mesa single-family houses**

Costa Mesa

• Average list price: $581,194 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $515,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Costa Mesa was $467,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Costa Mesa was $485,000.

Redfin graph for September Orange County single-family house price/SF**

Finally, for comparison, some Orange County September housing numbers: Redfin shows that the September median list price  was $515,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price was $428,000.

When comparing homesellers in Irvine, Costa Mesa and Orange County as a whole, it seems that Costa Mesa homesellers get the most-in-touch-with-reality award.

*Do not confuse this term [median) with the [term] average. They can be quite different for the same sample group. For instance, if you are doing a sold properties report and the homes are very evenly distributed, the median and average might be very similar. However, if the homes sold were weighted more to one end or the other of the price spectrum, then the median and average could be quite different.-About.com: Real Estate Business

**The above graphs are for single-familly houses. To see the the condo price per square foot graph for each area. click on the Redfin links found on this page. Then click on the “Add graph to your site” link.

The Irvine Company rolled out the first sales for Ivy (the new construction development in Irvine’s Woodbury East housing development) in a way that resulted in the quick sellout of phase one, two and three and, therefore, created a lot of buzz. In addition to creating a lot of buzz, the marketing plan for Ivy also provides some insight into what prices the current housing market will allow.

Grand Opening for Ivy Homes in Irvine's Woodbury East

Since the Ivy sales do provide some insight into what price the housing market will currently bear, I imagine that I will be comparing many Orange County home prices to the  Ivy prices.

I already compared Ivy prices to some Portola Spring home prices. Portola Springs home prices are easy to compare to Ivy prices; they are in the same area, look similar, are condos only (at least, the ones that I referenced), and both are new or newly new construction.

Today, something more complicated: Today, I will compare some three-bedroom Costa Mesa detached, resale home prices to the Ivy three-bedroom prices.

For review, three-bedroom homes in the Irvine’s Ivy development, which are all condos, are priced as follows:

• 1394 square feet–$400,990 ($288/SF)
• 1500 square feet–$441,990 ($295/SF)
• 1503 square feet–$421,990 ($281/SF)

Ivy Mello Roos fees are about $3,971 per year. HOA dues are about $134 monthly for the master association and $175 monthly for the sub-association.

With all this in mind, what do you think? Are the prices for the three-bedroom Costa Mesa homes that are listed below reasonable for current market conditions? All of these Costa Mesa homes are detached, single-family homes, with no Mellos Roos fee and no HOA fees. Also, note that all the homes listed below are short sales except for the home at 1118 Paularino Avenue.

3209 Colorado Place, Meas Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $399,000 ($259/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1543 SF. From the listing description: “Needs TLC - may have structural damage.”
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2112 Wallace Avenue, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $400,000 ($340/SF)
• What: 1955 detached house with 1176 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

570 Traverse Drive, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $430,000 ($239/SF)
• What: 1965 detached home with 1796 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2923 Peppertree Lane, Mesa Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $434,900 ($305/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1426 SF and a backyard Jacuzzi
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

1118 Paularino Ave, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price:$439,000 ($285/SF)
• What: 1963 detached house with 1538 SF and a swimming pool
• HOA: none listed

3129 Dublin Street, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $439,000 ($366/SF)
• What: 1957 detached house with 1200 SF and a pool, spa, outdoor fireplace, and built-in BBQ
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

As I wrote yesterday (”The Stealth Sell Out of Phase 3 Ivy homes in Irvine“), prices for Ivy homes, the new construction development in Irvine’s Woodbury East, have increased as each new phase was put on the market (except for Residence D, which went down $1,000 from the last price that was listed for this model).

As the following lists show, current prices are between $2,000 and $6,000 more than they were in phase 2 (again, this excludes Residence D, which was not available in phase two). The address for the Ivy homes, built by William Lyons Homes, is 20 Opus, Irvine 92618.

Current Prices  (as of September 10, according to Trulia):

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,180 square feet, priced from $356,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,394 square feet, priced from $400,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,500 square feet, priced from $441,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,503 square feet, priced from $421,990

Phase 2, August 1 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,180 square feet, priced from $354,990
  
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,394 square feet, priced from $394,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,500 square feet, priced from $439,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,503 square feet, NOT AVAILABLE

Phase 1, July 11 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage; 1,180 square feet, priced from $349,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,394 square feet, priced from $389,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,500 square feet, priced from $427,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,503 square feet, priced from $422,990

Additional costs:

• Mello Roos fees about $3,971 per year
• HOA dues about $134 monthly for the master association and $175 for the sub-association

GRAPHIC IS THE FLOOR PLAN FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND FLOORS OF RESIDENCE B. WHEN COMPARED TO PHASE TWO PRICES, RESIDENCE B IVY HOME PRICES INCREASED MORE THAN RESIDENCE A, C, OR D.

Note: See yesterday’s post (“The Stealth Sell Out of Phase 3 Ivy homes in Irvine“), for a list of additional posts on the Ivy development.

We’ve had a stealth event concerning the housing industry happen in Irvine a few weeks ago. What I am writing about is the mysterious sell out of the phase three Ivy homes that went on sale recently.

There has been a lot of buzz around the quick sell out of the Ivy home offered for sale in phase one and two. Ivy is the new construction development that is in the process of being built in Irvine’s Woodbury East community. These homes will not be available for move-in until sometime next year; however, both phase one and phase two sold out within 15 minutes of going on sale (July 11th and August 1st respectively). The Irvine Company announced that phase three homes would go on the market in 3 to 5 weeks of the phase two date. So I have been watching for an announcement of the exact date.

Phase 1 and 2 came out with a lot of fanfare: newspaper ads, e-mail announcements, Google banner ads on numerous blogs, and newspaper articles. Not so with phase three. I saw no mention of the phase three opening date until  I got an e-mail  on Wednesday of last week (September 23rd) from the Irvine Company that said:

“Homebuyers are continuing to prove that Woodbury East is Irvine’s most popular new address. Our first neighborhood, Ivy, continues to be a huge success and has sold out its first three phases. With pricing beginning in the mid $300,000s, Woodbury East has made its debut as a great place to buy now and enjoy for years to come.”

Apparently the phase three sale date has come and gone with hardly a word. It must be all a part of the marketing plan.

Tomorrow’s post: a look at the current prices for the Ivy homes. Hint: Prices have increased with each new sales phase.

Related posts:

• Deja Vu in Woodbury East! Phase Two of Irvine’s Ivy Housing Development Sells Out in 15 Minutes-Prices Increased
• New Construction Housing Development Sells Out in 15 Minutes
• Ivy. an Irvine Woodbury East Development, Opens with Smaller, More Affordable Housing Options
• Pros and Cons of New Irvine Development: Ivy, a Woodbury East Neighborhood

As I wrote previously, construction of the Ivy neighborhood in Irvine’s Woodbury East development was originally planned to be completed a few years ago. The developers delayed the development date in the hope that market conditions would improve.

The developers of the nearby Great Park Neighborhoods also planned to begin construction a few years ago, but they too put their original plans for residential development on hold. However, they are proceeding with construction of educational and commercial buildings.

Back in March 2008 Lennar’s updated their plans for the Great Park Neighborhoods residential construction as follows:

Availability:

• Land sales that would allow developers to start building would begin in 2009
• First vertical development would be in place/sold by December 2010
• All development would be complete by 2015

Type of Units, Number of Units, Pricing:

• Single-family detached-1100 units @ $1,700,000 each
• Condos (LLD)-60 units @ $650,000 each
• Senior housing-600 units @ $400,000 each
• Residential golf course-635 units @ $750,000 each
• Multi-unit (transit-oriented development-TOD)-686 units @ $690,000
• Low to moderate senior housing-200 units, price not specified
• Low to moderate multi-family housing-344 units, price not specified

Of course, a lot of time has gone by since this March 2008 update was made, and I am sure this information will change when the Great Park Neighborhood developers provide a new update.  Currently, the developers are keeping this information close to their vest as they gauge the market trends.

But I have a suggestion: Using the successful sell out the first phase of the Ivy development as an example, start the residential development in the Great Park with small, affordable homes. This is a niche in the Orange County housing market that has been ignored, and, as the quick sell out of the available Ivy homes shows, a pent up demand for this small and, therefore, more affordable housing exists.

Perhaps this is already on the planning board. We will see.

For a quick definition of the Orange County Great Park, see “The Orange County Great Park Revisited.” Also see “Orange County Great Park: Free Summer Events and the Jewel of Orange County Fundraiser,” and “The Orange County Great Park: Cirque du Soleil, Free Concerts Series, and Free Balloon Rides.”

Reference: Housing Availability at the Orange County Great Park

PHOTO IS OF A FORMER EL TORO MARINE BASE HANGAR THAT LENNAR CONVERTED FOR USE IN THE GREAT PARK NEIGHBORHOODS