Sweet Orange

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County homes priced over $1,000,000. You can pick out the city of interest to you and see what is happening in that market. You can also do some compare and contrast.

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 13.54
  October 18, 2009: 13.39
  September 20, 2009: 13.69
  July 19, 2009: 11.84
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $2,284,654
  October 18, 2009: $2,281,775
• Redfin median sold price
  November 2009: house--$1210/SF; condo–$307/SF
  September 2009: house–$1646/SF; condo–$374/SF

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Action Index: n/a
  
• Altos median list price for detached houses: n/a
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$295/SF; condo–$277/SF
  September 2009: n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 13.85
  October 18, 2009: 14.75
  September 20, 2009: 14.32
  July 19, 2009: 15.68
• Altos median list price:
  December 13 2009: $1,061,681
  October 18, 2009: $1,053,46
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$382/SF; condo–$294/SF
  September 2009: house–$264/SF; condo–$493/SF

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13, 2009: 17.33
  October 18, 2009: 15.03
  September 20, 2009: 13.24
  July 19, 2009: 10.86
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13, 2009: $930,474
  October 18, 2009: $1,021,748
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house–$281/SF; condo–$217/SF
  September 2009: house–$289/SF; condo–$124/SF

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County homes prices between $700,000 to $1,000,000. You can pick out the city of interest to you and see what is happening in that market. You can also do some compare and contrast with other cities.

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–60%

Altos Research Market Action Index:

• December 13 2009:18.09
• October 18, 2009: 18.26
• September 20, 2009: 16.69
• July 19, 2009: 15.23

Altos median list price for detached houses:

• December 13 2009: $778,046
• October 18, 2009: $791,188

Redfin median sold price

• November 2009: house–$320/SF; condo–$240/SF
• September 2009: house–$304/SF; condo–$239/SF

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

Altos Research Market Action Index:

• December 13 2009: 18.26
• October 18, 2009: 19.40
• September 20, 2009: 17.38
• July 19, 2009: 6.20
• December 13 2009: $822,396
• October 18, 2009: $834,077

Altos median list price for detached houses:

• December 13 2009: $822,396
• October 18, 2009: $834,077

Redfin median sold price

• November 2009: house–$264/SF; condo–$236/SF
• September 2009: house–n/a

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

Altos Research Market Action Index:

• December 13 2009: 17.64
• October 18, 2009: 18.69
• September 20, 2009: 16.27
• July 19, 2009: 13.26

Altos median list price for detached houses:

• December 13 2009: $828,596
• October 18, 2009: $850,712

Redfin median sold price:

• November 2009: house–$312/SF; condo–$187/SF
• September 2009: house–$405/SF; condo–$142/SF

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

Altos Research Market Action Index:

• December 13 2009: 15.17
• October 18, 2009: 16.07
• September 20, 2009: 14.95
• July 19, 2009: 12.67

Altos median list price for detached houses:

• December 13 2009: $853,894
• October 18, 2009: $869,131

Redfin median sold price

• November 2009: house–$281/SF; condo–$282/SF
• September 2009: house–$222/SF; condo–$345/SF

Up next: South Orange County housing numbers for homes over  $1,000,000

Here is a look at two homes in Irvine’s University Town Center neighborhood that are For-Sale-By-Owner (FSBO). Both have been on the  market for over a year, but the prices have been reduced little to none. Can these owners hold on indefinitely without lowing the price? We’ll see. For that matter, even if these owners can wait, my guess is that the price that these homes will sell for will not return to higher levels for some years to come.

Now some background on the area: Although these two homes are listed as single-family, most homes in Irvine’s University Town Center are condos. Amenities in this area include closeness to UCI and Mason Regional Park. To see what else is on the market in this area, see  University Town Center housing map. To read a little about the history of the area, see one of my Redfin posts, “Irvine’s University Town Center: Then and Now.”

30 Wellesley, Irvine CA 92612

• Asking price:$549,000 ($371/SF)
• 1981 single-family with two stories
• 32beds/32.5baths with 1480 SF
• HOA fee: none listed
• Mellos Roos: none listed
• Days on Market*:  420

This home was listed in September 2008 for 549,000. As you can see, the price has not changed.

22 Menlo Aisle #162, Irvine, CA 92612

• Asking price:$691,990 ($349/SF)
• 1988 single-family with two stories
• 3 beds/3 baths with 1983 SF
• HOA fee: none listed
• Mellos Roos: none listed
• Days on Market*:  461

This home was listed in August 2008 for $694,990. As you can see, although this home has been on the market over a year, the asking price is currently only slightly lower than the listing price of over a year ago.

* Days on the Market is the number of days these homes have been listed on Redfin. It is possible that these homes have been on the market longer.

According to Redfin, the median price per square foot that a single-family home in Costa Mesa sold for in September was $403/SF. Here are some Costa Mesa homes that are currently on the market that have list prices that are near this median price per square foot.

The square footage for these detached houses range from 1470 square feet (458 Swarthmore Lane) to 3504 square feet  (178 Flower Street). The house on La Playa has a $90 monthly homeowner association (HOA) fee listed; the other houses have no HOA fee listed. None of these houses are listed as a short sale; however, the Swarthmore Lane house is listed as corporate owned.

178 Flower Street: 5 bed/5.5 baths in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$1,399,000 or $399 per SF

2189 Tustin Avenue: 3 bed/2.5 baths in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$1,249,000 or $416 per SF

157 Del  Mar Avenue: 3 bed/2.75 bath in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$599,000 or $408 per SF (update: changed November 2 to $579,900 or $394/SF)

2296 La Playa Drive: 2 bed/2 bath in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$574,900 or $396 per SF (update: changed November 2 to $549,900 or $379/SF)

458 Swarthmore Lane: 3 bed/1.75 bath in Central Costa Mesa 92626
Asking price–$539,000 or $393 per SF

Note: According to DQNews, in September, Costa Mesa’s overall median selling price for condos and houses combined was $485,000. According to Redfn, the overall medain selling price in August for Costa Mesa houses was $551,000, and the overall medain selling price for Costa Mesa condos was $300,000.

As a follow up on one of last week’s post, here is a comparison of two single-family houses that are priced near the September median price per square foot for their cities. One is in Irvine; the other is in Costa Mesa.

Irvine house that is priced near the Irvine median price/SF ($338/SF):

64 Rockport, Northpark Neighborhood

• Asking price: $839,000 ($336/SF)
• What: 2000 detached house with 4 bed/2.5 bath with 2500 SF
• Lot size: 4317 SF
• HOA fee: $175/month
• This is a short sale.

Note: An open house is being held for this home on this Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.

Open house hours:

• November 5 at 11am-1pm
• November 7 at 12 pm-5pm
• November 8 at 1pm-5pm

Costa Mesa house that is priced near the Costa Mesa median price/SF ($403/SF):

2039 Phalarope Court, Mesa Verde Area:

• Asking price: $899,000 ($415/SF)
• What: 1966 detached house with 4 bed/2.5 bath and 2166 SF
• Lot size: 7035 SF
• HOA fee: none listed

Note: In June, this home was listed for $1,050,000. In May 2005, this home sold for $810,000.

I have posts that take a deeper look at Costa Mesa and Irvine homes that are priced near the median price per square foot in the works.

Which homesellers are more grounded in reality, Costa Mesa or Irvine homesellers? Take a look at the following numbers and decide for yourself. Keep in mind that the median and average are not the same.* If you want to check out the reality gap for your ZIP, see the Trulia ZIP code list.

Irvine

• Average list price: $927,077 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $560,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Irvine was $615,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Irvine was $533,000.

Costa Mesa

• Average list price: $581,194 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $515,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Costa Mesa was $467,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Costa Mesa was $485,000.

Finally, for comparison, some Orange County September housing numbers: Redfin shows that the September median list price  was $515,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price was $428,000.

When comparing homesellers in Irvine, Costa Mesa and Orange County as a whole, it seems that Costa Mesa homesellers get the most-in-touch-with-reality award.

*Do not confuse this term [median) with the [term] average. They can be quite different for the same sample group. For instance, if you are doing a sold properties report and the homes are very evenly distributed, the median and average might be very similar. However, if the homes sold were weighted more to one end or the other of the price spectrum, then the median and average could be quite different.-About.com: Real Estate Business

**The above graphs are for single-familly houses. To see the the condo price per square foot graph for each area. click on the Redfin links found on this page. Then click on the “Add graph to your site” link.

The Irvine Company rolled out the first sales for Ivy (the new construction development in Irvine’s Woodbury East housing development) in a way that resulted in the quick sellout of phase one, two and three and, therefore, created a lot of buzz. In addition to creating a lot of buzz, the marketing plan for Ivy also provides some insight into what prices the current housing market will allow.

Since the Ivy sales do provide some insight into what price the housing market will currently bear, I imagine that I will be comparing many Orange County home prices to the  Ivy prices.

I already compared Ivy prices to some Portola Spring home prices. Portola Springs home prices are easy to compare to Ivy prices; they are in the same area, look similar, are condos only (at least, the ones that I referenced), and both are new or newly new construction.

Today, something more complicated: Today, I will compare some three-bedroom Costa Mesa detached, resale home prices to the Ivy three-bedroom prices.

For review, three-bedroom homes in the Irvine’s Ivy development, which are all condos, are priced as follows:

• 1394 square feet–$400,990 ($288/SF)
• 1500 square feet–$441,990 ($295/SF)
• 1503 square feet–$421,990 ($281/SF)

Ivy Mello Roos fees are about $3,971 per year. HOA dues are about $134 monthly for the master association and $175 monthly for the sub-association.

With all this in mind, what do you think? Are the prices for the three-bedroom Costa Mesa homes that are listed below reasonable for current market conditions? All of these Costa Mesa homes are detached, single-family homes, with no Mellos Roos fee and no HOA fees. Also, note that all the homes listed below are short sales except for the home at 1118 Paularino Avenue.

3209 Colorado Place, Meas Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $399,000 ($259/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1543 SF. From the listing description: “Needs TLC - may have structural damage.”
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2112 Wallace Avenue, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $400,000 ($340/SF)
• What: 1955 detached house with 1176 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

570 Traverse Drive, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $430,000 ($239/SF)
• What: 1965 detached home with 1796 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2923 Peppertree Lane, Mesa Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $434,900 ($305/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1426 SF and a backyard Jacuzzi
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

1118 Paularino Ave, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price:$439,000 ($285/SF)
• What: 1963 detached house with 1538 SF and a swimming pool
• HOA: none listed

3129 Dublin Street, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $439,000 ($366/SF)
• What: 1957 detached house with 1200 SF and a pool, spa, outdoor fireplace, and built-in BBQ
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

According to Redfin, there were 5 detached houses and 9 condos on the resale market in Irvine’s Portola Springs development in September. The median selling price per square foot for a detached home was $377. The median selling price per square foot for a condo was $349. More information on Portola Springs is available at the Portola Spring HOA website.

The nearby community of Ivy in Woodbury East is the new construction development that has easily sold out phase one, two and three (however, this total only about 30 homes sold from the 500 that will eventually be sold).

The prices for Ivy homes are as follows:

• Two-bedroom Ivy homes, which are 1180 square feet, are selling for $356,990 ($303/SF).
• Three-bedroom Ivy homes which are 1394, 1503 and 1500 square feet, are selling for $400,990 ($288/SF), $421,990 ($281/SF), and $441,990 ($295/SF), respectively.

To decide if the Portola Spring homes are reasonable priced, compare these Ivy prices with the prices of the following Portola Spring homes. Since both of these developments have a similar look, are located in the same area, and are new or nearly new construction, my though is that they should be priced in the same ballpark.

To see all resale home that are currently on the market, see the Portola Springs map. Also, new construction, as well as resale homes, is currently available in Portola Springs.

38 Cactus Bloom Irvine, CA 92618

• Asking price: $489,900 ($407/SF)
• What: 2 beds/3 baths, 1205 SF, 2008 condo
• HOA: $175 and $120

49 Silverado Irvine, CA 92618

• Asking price: $495,000 ($306 SF)
• What: 3 beds/3 baths, 1617 SF, 2008 condo
• HOA: $175 and $191

78 Full Moon Irvine, CA 92618

• Asking price: $498,000 ($308 SF)
• What: 3 beds/3 baths, 1617 SF,  2007 condo
• HOA: $175 and $191
• This is a short sale.

39 White Sage Irvine, CA 92618 (Los Arboles neighborhood)

• Asking price: $744,755($372/SF)
• Listed on Oct 6, 2009 for: $739,185 ($369 SF)
• What: 3 beds/3 baths, 2003 SF, 2009 condo
• HOA: $175 and $124

Here is a look at which three-bedroom condos with a list price under $450,000 are available in Costa Mesa. They are listed from low to high. Four of these eight homes are short sales, and one is bank owned.

Note that no three-bedroom Eastside Costa Mesa homes are available at this price. The lowest-priced three-bedroom homes in Eastside Costa Mesa are two homes listed under $500,000: a condo and a single-family home. The condo is listed at $475,000, and the single-family home is listed at $499,000. Both are short sales.

114 Yorktown Lane, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price: $264,000 ($214/SF)
• What: 1967 condo with 1240 SF
• HOA: $220
• This is bank-owned

3430 Hollow Brook Circle #115, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $299,000 ($226/SF)
• What: 1976 condo with 1325 SF
• HOA: $320 and $175

377 Avocado Street Unit E, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price $325,000 ($262/SF)
• What: 1991 condo with 1240 SF and two-car garage
• HOA: $156

380 W Wilson Street Unit A103, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $355,000 ($215/SF)
• What: 1980 condo with 1650 SF
• HOA: $225
• This is a short sale.

543 Victoria Unit O, Southwest Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price: $375,000 ($288/SF)
• What: 1989 condo with 1300 SF
• HOA: $265
• This is a short sale.

Address not listed, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $385,000 ($242/SF)
• What: 1994 4-unit PUD, From the listing description: “The property is located in a small 4 unit PUD at the end of a cul de sac street that is close to shopping, freeways, restaurants and schools. It is in need of work but could be a good deal for an investor or someone who could do some fix up work.”
• HOA: $65
• This is a short sale.

908 Hyde Court, South Coast Metro CA 92626

• Asking price: $425,000 ($229/SF)
• What: 1979 condo with 1853 SF
• HOA: $360

2243 Pacific Avenue #14, Southwest Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $430,000 ($258/SF)
• What: 1980 condo with 1669 SF
• HOA: $218
• This is a short sale.

As I wrote yesterday (”The Stealth Sell Out of Phase 3 Ivy homes in Irvine“), prices for Ivy homes, the new construction development in Irvine’s Woodbury East, have increased as each new phase was put on the market (except for Residence D, which went down $1,000 from the last price that was listed for this model).

As the following lists show, current prices are between $2,000 and $6,000 more than they were in phase 2 (again, this excludes Residence D, which was not available in phase two). The address for the Ivy homes, built by William Lyons Homes, is 20 Opus, Irvine 92618.

Current Prices  (as of September 10, according to Trulia):

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,180 square feet, priced from $356,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,394 square feet, priced from $400,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,500 square feet, priced from $441,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,503 square feet, priced from $421,990

Phase 2, August 1 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,180 square feet, priced from $354,990
  
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,394 square feet, priced from $394,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,500 square feet, priced from $439,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,503 square feet, NOT AVAILABLE

Phase 1, July 11 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage; 1,180 square feet, priced from $349,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,394 square feet, priced from $389,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,500 square feet, priced from $427,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,503 square feet, priced from $422,990

Additional costs:

• Mello Roos fees about $3,971 per year
• HOA dues about $134 monthly for the master association and $175 for the sub-association

GRAPHIC IS THE FLOOR PLAN FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND FLOORS OF RESIDENCE B. WHEN COMPARED TO PHASE TWO PRICES, RESIDENCE B IVY HOME PRICES INCREASED MORE THAN RESIDENCE A, C, OR D.

Note: See yesterday’s post (“The Stealth Sell Out of Phase 3 Ivy homes in Irvine“), for a list of additional posts on the Ivy development.