Sweet Orange

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home on the market in each city that are detached.

To see which homes are currently on the market as well as which homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city (listing price, price per square foot, etc.), click on the index number for each city.

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 20, 2009: 20.37
• July 19, 2009:  18.09

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 20, 2009: 14.32
  
• July 19, 2009: 15.68

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 20, 2009: 17.38
  
• July 19, 2009: 6.20

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–82%

• September 20, 2009: 13.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 11.84

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–48%

• September 20, 2009: 16.27
  
• July 19, 2009: 13.26

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–62%

• September 20, 2009: 16.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 15.23

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached–5%

• September 20, 2009: 3.04
  
• July 19, 2009: 6.07

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached–61%

• September 20, 2009: 16.95
  
• July 19, 2009: 17.37

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

• September 20, 2009: 18.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 16.23

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

• September 20, 2009: 16.45
  
• July 19, 2009: 16.64

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–76%

• September 20, 2009: 14.95
  
• July 19, 2009: 12.67

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

• September 20, 2009: 13.24
  
• July 19, 2009: 10.86

Summary: According to the index numbers, all South Orange County markets for detached houses are buyers’ markets. In general, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has increased since July 19th; however, the index number still show South Orange County housing is in a weaker position than the North or Central areas.

The hard-hit area of Ladera Ranch saw the biggest improvement. The detached houses in the  55+ community of Laguna Woods is the weakest housing market in South Orange County. But only about 5% of these homes are detached, so this number is not that telling.

I’m hopeful in that Santa Ana will some day become a true destination city; where new circulation is brought to our streets-where places like Downtown, The Fiesta Marketplace, 4th Street, and the Station District (including the train depot) are ventured to by people all over Southern California.–Ben Dayhoe, Life at the Santiago Street Lofts–The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

I came across a blog that I haven’t seen before, Life at the Santiago Street Lofts–The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I thought that it had some interesting info on life in Santa Ana, and since I write about development in Orange County, I thought that an excerpt from a recent Santiago Street post was appropriate for reprinting on this blog.

After living in Santa Ana for over three years, it seems as if things are finally happening in the empty lots just West of the Santiago Lofts.

When I first told my friends and family I was moving to Santa Ana, they thought I was crazy. But to me, it made perfect sense because I believe in this city-what it is, what it was, and what it could be.

As of Monday night [August 17], the Related/Griffin team is now one step closer in becoming the master developer for these nearby lots. And after three years of watching other cities evolve while Santa Ana moved at a snail’s pace, I am filled with hope with the thought of what could come to our city.

But at the same time, my hopes are equally met with trepidation and fears.

He goes on to state some of his hopes and fears for the area (one of which can be found at the beginning of this post). Check them out at his blog.  All the Google ad money he gets is donated to Pet Pro Life, a dog rescue program.

Related information:

• The City of Santa Ana: The Station District RFQ
• Santa Ana Downtown National Register District–Wikipedia
• “Santa Ana sees new neighborhood on vacant lots,” The Orange County Register, Doug Irving
• “Santa Ana plan aims for downtown rebirth,”  The Orange County Register, Doug Irving

2007 ARTIST RENDERING OF THE STATION DISTRICT IN SANTA ANA COURTESY THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Which of these competing statement about the housing market do you think is true?

During the housing boom, homeowners had no qualms about spending money to commute to distant suburbs carved out of the hinterlands. But frugal home buyers, [Economist Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast] said, will be more inclined to look first at homes that are closer to their jobs.

“We’re going to see more multifamily-dwelling units,” Leamer said.

The real estate industry is known for its bigger-is-better attitude, but even some industry pros sense a change.

“We’ll probably be seeing a trend toward smaller, greener, less-costly-to-maintain houses,” said Walter Maloney, spokesman for the National Assn. of Realtors. It’s “a return to basics.”

OR

“People have short memories and just look a couple years ahead,” said San Fernando Valley real estate agent Gary Rapoport, who represents clients generally looking for properties in the $400,000 range. “They just want to buy whether they qualify or not.”

Real estate economist Christopher Thornberg seconds that view. Californians display a sort of amnesia about downturns that affect the housing market, he said, whether caused by financial-market debacles or the collapse of the technology boom. Price slumps in each of the last four decades, he noted, didn’t dispel the perception of residential real estate as a sure-bet investment.

“We’ve been here before,” Thornberg said. “People have a shocking ability to forget the past.”–Chris Jacobs, The Los Angeles Times, “Recession may forge a shift in California housing

Next week I will take another look at this topic and provide a third option.

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the index number for each city.

Altos Market Action Index for Central Orange County cities, week ending on September 13, 2009:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

• September 13, 2009: 18.97
• July 12, 2009: 21.13

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

• September 13, 2009: 20.72
• July 12, 2009: 26.05

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 13, 2009: 16.63
• July 12, 2009: 14.50

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

• September 13, 2009: 17.18
• July 12, 2009: 18.31

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

• September 13, 2009: 12.31
• July 12, 2009: 11.90

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

• September 13, 2009: 11.04
• July 12, 2009: 11.42

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

• September 13, 2009: 18.15
• July 12, 2009: 19.26

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

• September 13, 2009: 20.40
• July 12, 2009: 21.75

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 13, 2009: 14.24
• July 12, 2009: 12.91

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

• September 13, 2009: 17.55
• July 12, 2009: 19.09

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• September 13, 2009: 14.33
• July 12, 2009: 8.43

Summary: All Central Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. In general, according to the index numbers, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has decreased since July 12th.  And in general, the lower-priced home markets are currently healthy than the high-priced areas.

For a look at what is going on in with housing prices in Costa Mesa, I provided the numbers for the highest- and lowest-priced homes in Costa Mesa as well as the numbers for a Costa Mesa home that is near the median. Here they are:

The highest priced home in Costa Mesa is currently at 369 22nd Street. This home is located in Eastside Costa Mesa (92627) near the Newport Bay. Note that the current listing price is reduced by 15% from the original listing price.

• Asking price: $2,990,000 ($516/SF)
• HOA fee: n/a
• What: detached house built in 2004
• Size: 4 beds/6 baths with 5800 square feet
• Previously sold: February 10, 1996 for $540,000
• Price reductions:
  * listed April 16,2009 for $3,495,000
  * price reduced on July 22, 2009 to #3,295,000
  * price reduced on August 21, 2009 to $2,990,000

The lowest priced home in Costa Mesa is currently at 1654 Iowa Street, Unit B. This short sale is  located in the Mesa Verde neighborhood  (92626). Note that the current listing price is approximately 50% below the previous 2006 selling price.

• Asking price: $209,990 ($234/SF)
• HOA fee: $250/month
• What: condo built in 1971
• Size: 2 beds/1 bath with 897 square feet
• Previously sold: April 21, 2006 for $406,000

An example of a mid-priced Costa Mesa home is at 832 Presidio Drive. This home is located in Central Costa Mesa (92626) near Tewinkle Park, Orange County Fair Grounds, Orange Coast College, South Coast Plaza as well as many freeways. This is a short sale.

• Asking price: $439,000 ($338/SF)
• HOA fee: n/a
• What: detached house built in 1960
• Size: 3 beds/62baths with 1200 square feet (7200 SF lot)
• Previously sold: July 17, 2009 for $439,000 and July 12, 1994 for $184,000

As a recent post shows, homes in low-priced areas such as parts of Anaheim, Stanton, and Garden Grove are selling much better than homes in the high-priced areas. MDA DataQuick reports the same:

Sales rose 120 to 150 percent in parts of Anaheim and Stanton where prices ranged from $250,000 to $310,000, reports MDA DataQuick.–”Housing sales jump,” The Orange County Register

The Register article goes on to say that brokers are reporting that homes above $500,000 continue to sell slowly.

So, to check this out, let’s take a look at what is happening in two of these ZIPs that have homes priced on the lower end of the market: Anaheim’s 92804 and 92805.

A DataQuick/Orange County Register chart shows that the number of home sales in July in the 92804 ZIP  increased by 11.9% when compared to the July 2008 sales numbers. However, Trulia shows that the May 2009 to July 2009 sales in the 92804 ZIP decreased by 25.2% when compared to prices of one year ago.

In addition, DataQuick reports that in July Anaheim’s 92805 ZIP, had the second highest increases in the number of sales in Orange County when compared to the same time last year (+123.1%). However, Trulia numbers show a less impressive increase. According to Trulia,  the May 2009 to July 2009 sales in the 92805 ZIP increased by 7.1% when compared to prices of one year ago.

Trulia’s numbers cover a longer time period and, therefore, it is not surprising that the numbers differ. However, watching the numbers from these two sources in the coming months to see if they converge or continue in different directions will be interesting. They should give a clearer picture of which Orange County areas are seeing increases in the number of homes sold and by how much.

Following is a comparison of two similarly priced homes in Irvine’s 92602 ZIP.

At 30 Avalon, Irvine, CA 92602 is a detached Northpark condo built in 2002 with 3 beds/2.5 baths and 1601 square feet. Homeowners association fee is a reasonable $128 per month and includes access to a pool, spa, barbecue, and sports court. As with all HOA, there are rule. And although I don’t know exactly what they are, apparently rules about pets are one of these. The asking price is $648,900 ($405 per square foot).

Considering that another detached condo with 1750 square feet in West Irvine (82 Sorenson, Irvine, CA 92602) is listed for approximately the same price and currently accepting backup offers, this seems high. The Sorenson home, which was built in 2001, has 4 bedrooms/3 baths, and the asking price is $650,000 ($371/SF). HOA fees are $100 and $50 per month.

I like the exterior look of the Northpark home; however, the MLS pictures show a lack of light in some rooms (either this or just poor pictures). And then there is the fact that the size is smaller than the West Irvine home. The Northpark home has only been listed for one day, so it will be interesting to see what happens with this home. The West Irvine home is also worth watching. Even if a home is listed as accepting backup offers, it does not mean that a sale is pending.

I’ll check back on both of these homes to see what the final outcome is.

Tomorrow: a look at the housing numbers for this part of Irvine

According to Redfin, Irvine’s July housing stats broken down by detached houses and condos categories were as follows. Note that condos play a significant role in Irvine’s housing stock, In July, 59% of the Irvine homes that were on the market were condos.

Home on the market (Inventory)

• Detached house: 487
• Condo: 701

Median price per square foot

• Detached house
  List: $370/SF
  Sold: $322/SF
• Condo
  List: $343/SF
  Sold: $328/SF

Price reductions*:

• Percentage of home with price reductions
  Detached house–36.1%
  Condo–37.1%
• Total percent of the reduction
  Detached house–7.4%
  Condo–6.3%

Days on Redfin*

• Detached house: 62
• Condo: 66

Also note that Redfin’s overall list price in July 2009 was $620,000, and the May 2009 sold price was $570,000. In addition, 239 Irvine homes sold in May 2009.

*Based on homes sold or taken off the market between June 2, 2009 and August 31, 2009

Source: Redfin

Following are some housing market numbers for Irvine. The 92603, 92604 and 92614 ZIPs are particularly interesting.

Note that the 92603 July asking price of $582 per square foot seems particularly unrealistic considering that the July selling price for the 92603 ZIP was $374 per square foot. The 92603 ZIP includes some of the most expensive homes in Irvine, including Irvine’s most expensive neighborhood, Shady Canyon. Other neighborhoods in Irvine’s 92603 include Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, and Turtle Ridge.

You might also want to pay special attention to the Woodbridge ZIPs: 92604 and 92614. As reported in the The Orange County Register, the increase in the percentage of Woodbridge foreclosures are some of the  highest in Orange County, especially in the 92604 ZIP. The 92604 ZIP includes the upper part of the Woodbridge neighborhood as well as the  El Camino neighborhood (See the map.)

According to DataQuick, Irvine’s July 2009 housing numbers by ZIP are as follows: ZIP/Median Selling Price/% change in price from previous month/# of homes sold/% change in number sold from previous month (DQNews).

Tomorrow: Irvine detached and condo stats

According to DataQuick/OC Register, Anaheim’s July 2009 housing numbers by ZIP are as follows.

The percent change is the percentage increase or decrease that results when current numbers are compared to the numbers of one year ago. Anaheim contains some of North Orange County’s lower-priced areas. (Stanton currently has the lowest median list price housing in North Orange County.)

The Anaheim Altos Market Action Index for the week ending August 23, 2009 is 22.38. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

According to Redfin, 29.1% of Anaheim homes have price reducitons.* According to Trulia, 68% of Anaheim homes are distressed.**

*Based on homes sold or taken off the market between May 26, 2009 and August 24, 2009.

**Defined as homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. In this case the foreclosures are not necessilarly on the market yet (and may not end up on the market).