Sweet Orange

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has come out with the August housing numbers. They show a mixed-bag for the U.S. housing market:

U.S. Sales Numbers
U.S. housing sales in August were 5.1 million. This is a drop of 2.7% from the July number of 5.24 million and a drop of 30% from the peak, which was about four years ago. However, this is up 3.4% from this time last year and up 14% from the bottom which was in January.

According to NAR economist Lawrence Yun, a stable housing market cannot be claimed until U.S. home sales increase to about 5.5 to 6 million.

U.S. Median Sales Price
In August 2009, the median price for housing in the U.S. was $177,700. In July 2009, it was $178,400. The August 2009 number is down 12.5% from the August 2008 number.

U.S. Inventory
In August, 3.6 million homes were on the market. This is a decrease from the July number, which was 4 million. According to the NAR, if homes sell at the current pace, it will take 8.5 months to sell these homes. This is the shortest time in two year that analysts have predicted it will take to sell existing housing inventory.

Conclusion
The good news for anyone who wants to sell a house is that inventory is down when compared to last month and sales are up when compared to a year ago.

The bad news for anyone who wants to sell a house is that home sales need to increase substantially if we are to return to a stable market. In addition, housing analysts expected August housing sales to be larger than they were in July; instead, July home sales went down 2.7%.

This month-to-month sale decline has some wondering if we are in for a reverse in that has been an improving market for national housing sales. However, Paul Dales of Capital Economics thinks that this is not the case:

We suspect it is just a temporary blip in the improving trend rather than a sign of renewed weakness.

We’ll see…

Note: See the LA Land blog for additional information and a link to relevant housing charts and graphs.

Following are the Irvine condo numbers that cover the last six months. Since condos play a significant housing role in Orange County, they are worth tracking separately. For example, Irvine has slight more condos on the market than detached homes. For previous Irvine  condo stats, see  my post from my past life as a Redfin blogger. More later on what these housing numbers mean.

Median List Sales Price:

• March 20, 2009: $500K/$351 per square foot
• February 22, 2009: $499K/$357 per square foot
• January 30, 2009: $479K/$356 per square foot
• December 31, 2008: $490K/$357 per square foot
• November 30, 2008: $499K/$357 per square foot
• October 27, 2008: $500K/$366 per square foot

Median Sold Price*:

• March 20, 2009: $415K/$310 per square foot
• February 22, 2009: $425K/$315 per square foot
• January 30, 2009: $425K/$315 per square foot
• December 31, 2008: $435K/$344 per square foot
• November 30, 2008: $465K/$346 per square foot
• October 27, 2008: $472K/$349 per square foot

Median Days on Market*:

• March 20, 2009: 98
• February 22, 2009: 93
• January 30, 2009: 88
• December 31, 2008: 88
• November 30, 2008: 93
• October 27, 2008: 89

Number of Homes on the Market (Inventory):

• March 20, 2009: 511 (22 foreclosures)
• February 22, 2009: 483 (30 foreclosures)
• January 30, 2009: 439 (33 foreclosures)
• December 31, 2008: 421 (37  foreclosures)
• November 30, 2008: 457 (23 foreclosures)
• October 27, 2008: 477 (16 foreclosures)

*Based on homes sold or taken off market in the previous 90 days. These include MSL-listed, for-sale-by-owner, and bank-foreclosure homes.

Source unless otherwise noted: Redfin

Following are the Irvine detached home numbers that cover the last six months. For previous Irvine detached home stats, see  my post from my past life as a Redfin blogger. More later on what these housing numbers mean.

Tomorrow: a look at the Irvine condo statistics

Median List Sales Price:

• March 20, 2009: $850K/$370 per square foot
• February 22, 2009: $849K/$375 per square foot
• January 30, 2009: $859K/$376 per square foot
• December 31, 2008: $850K/$370 per square foot
• November 30, 2008: $875K/$375 per square foot
• October 27, 2008: $899K/$378 per square foot

Median Sold Price*:

• March 20, 2009: $700K/$326 per square foot
• February 22, 2009: $710K/$326 per square foot
• January 30, 2009: $743K/$328 per square foot
• December 31, 2008: $730K/$332 per square foot
• November 30, 2008: $690K/$327 per square foot
• October 27, 2008: $699K/$330 per square foot

Median Days on Market*:

• March 20, 2009: 91
• February 22, 2009: 96
• January 30, 2009: 92
• December 31, 2008: 85
• November 30, 2008: 82
• October 27, 2008: 83

Number of Homes on the Market (Inventory):

• March 20, 2009: 448 (17 foreclosures)
• February 22, 2009: 434 (17 foreclosures)
• January 30, 2009: na
• December 31, 2008: 351 (24  foreclosures)
• November 30, 2008: 386 (17 foreclosures)
• October 27, 2008: 383 (6 foreclosures)

Market Action Index (Source: Altos Research, see note below) :

• March 22, 2009: 16.35
• February 22, 2009: 16.85
• January 30, 2009: 16.48
• December 31, 2008: 19.31
• November 30, 2008: 18.93
• October 26, 2008: 19.32

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included) and that the Altos median sales price and median price per square foot are for the list price, not the sold price.

*Based on homes sold or taken off market in the previous 90 days. These include MSL-listed, for-sale-by-owner, and bank-foreclosure homes.

Source unless otherwise noted: Redfin

Following are the Costa Mesa condo numbers that cover the last six months. Note that condos play a significant housing role in Orange County. However, in Costa Mesa this is less so than for some other areas. For example, Irvine has slightly more condos on the market than detached homes, whereas Costa Mesa has approximately 2.5 detached homes on the market for every condo.

For previous Costa Mesa condo statistics, see my post from my past life as a Redfin blogger.

Tomorrow: a look at some recent Irvine housing statistics

Median List Sales Price:

• March 20, 2009: $315K/$264 per square foot
• February 22, 2009: $315K/$254 per square foot
• January 30, 2009: $355K/$272 per square foot
• December 31, 2008: $336K/$269 per square foot
• November 30, 2008: $350K/$280 per square foot
• October 27, 2008: $342K/$284 per square foot

Median Sold Price*:

• March 20, 2009: $251K/$206 per square foot
• February 22, 2009: $273K/$229 per square foot
• January 30, 2009: $255K/$198 per square foot
• December 31, 2008: $275K/$213 per square foot
• November 30, 2008: $247K/$208 per square foot
• October 27, 2008: $218K/$203 per square foot

Median Days on Market*:

• March 24, 2009: 95
• February 22, 2009: 91.5
• January 30, 2009: 107
• December 31, 2008: 93
• November 30, 2008: 75
• October 27, 2008: 79

Number of Homes on the Market (Inventory):

• March 20, 2009: 100 (12 foreclosures)
• February 22, 2009: 103 (11 foreclosures)
• January 30, 2009: 117 (15 foreclosures)
• December 31, 2008: 119 (21  foreclosures)
• November 30, 2008: 132 (9 foreclosures)
• October 27, 2008: 156 (8 foreclosures)

*Based on homes sold or taken off market in the previous 90 days. These include MSL-listed, for-sale-by-owner, and bank-foreclosure homes.

Source unless otherwise noted: Redfin