Sweet Orange

Which homesellers are more grounded in reality, Costa Mesa or Irvine homesellers? Take a look at the following numbers and decide for yourself. Keep in mind that the median and average are not the same.* If you want to check out the reality gap for your ZIP, see the Trulia ZIP code list.

Irvine

• Average list price: $927,077 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $560,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Irvine was $615,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Irvine was $533,000.

Costa Mesa

• Average list price: $581,194 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $515,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Costa Mesa was $467,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Costa Mesa was $485,000.

Finally, for comparison, some Orange County September housing numbers: Redfin shows that the September median list price  was $515,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price was $428,000.

When comparing homesellers in Irvine, Costa Mesa and Orange County as a whole, it seems that Costa Mesa homesellers get the most-in-touch-with-reality award.

*Do not confuse this term [median) with the [term] average. They can be quite different for the same sample group. For instance, if you are doing a sold properties report and the homes are very evenly distributed, the median and average might be very similar. However, if the homes sold were weighted more to one end or the other of the price spectrum, then the median and average could be quite different.-About.com: Real Estate Business

**The above graphs are for single-familly houses. To see the the condo price per square foot graph for each area. click on the Redfin links found on this page. Then click on the “Add graph to your site” link.

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: Once again, the markets for all Central Orange County housing are buyers’ markets. However, according to the Altos index numbers, the Central Orange County housing market is stronger than it was in September. And in general, according to the index numbers, the lower-priced home markets are stronger than the high-priced areas. For example, compare Newport Beach, Seal Beach and Villa Park Altos index numbers to the Santa Ana index number.

One more point on the Altos index numbers for Central Orange County cities: Seal Beach showed the least movement since last month, and Los Alamitos showed the biggest increase. correction made 10-21-09 sw

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the Central Orange County housing market:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 20.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.97
  July 12, 2009: 21.13
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $570,626
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$403/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 23.86
  September 13, 2009: 20.72
  July 12, 2009: 26.05
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $598,615
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$304/SF

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 17.86
  September 13, 2009: 16.63
  July 12, 2009: 14.50
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $770,762
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$344/SF; condo–$344/SF

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–45%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 19.21
  September 13, 2009: 17.18
  July 12, 2009: 18.31
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $863,177
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$338/SF; condo–$318/SF

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 16.83
  September 13, 2009: 12.31
  July 12, 2009: 11.90
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $860,346
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$260/SF; condo–$275/SF

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 13.61
  September 13, 2009: 11.04
  July 12, 2009: 11.42
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $1,998,992
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 19.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.15
  July 12, 2009: 19.26
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $552,197
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$254/SF; condo–$213/SF

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 23.04
  September 13, 2009: 20.40
  July 12, 2009: 21.75
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $339,523
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$236/SF; condo–$103/SF

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 14.89
  September 13, 2009: 14.24
  July 12, 2009: 12.91
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $980,553
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$398/SF; condo–$592/SF

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 20.18
  September 13, 2009: 17.55
  July 12, 2009: 19.09
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $629,922
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 16.09
  September 13, 2009: 14.33
  July 12, 2009: 8.43
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $1,202,962
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$376/SF; condo–n/a

The Irvine Company rolled out the first sales for Ivy (the new construction development in Irvine’s Woodbury East housing development) in a way that resulted in the quick sellout of phase one, two and three and, therefore, created a lot of buzz. In addition to creating a lot of buzz, the marketing plan for Ivy also provides some insight into what prices the current housing market will allow.

Since the Ivy sales do provide some insight into what price the housing market will currently bear, I imagine that I will be comparing many Orange County home prices to the  Ivy prices.

I already compared Ivy prices to some Portola Spring home prices. Portola Springs home prices are easy to compare to Ivy prices; they are in the same area, look similar, are condos only (at least, the ones that I referenced), and both are new or newly new construction.

Today, something more complicated: Today, I will compare some three-bedroom Costa Mesa detached, resale home prices to the Ivy three-bedroom prices.

For review, three-bedroom homes in the Irvine’s Ivy development, which are all condos, are priced as follows:

• 1394 square feet–$400,990 ($288/SF)
• 1500 square feet–$441,990 ($295/SF)
• 1503 square feet–$421,990 ($281/SF)

Ivy Mello Roos fees are about $3,971 per year. HOA dues are about $134 monthly for the master association and $175 monthly for the sub-association.

With all this in mind, what do you think? Are the prices for the three-bedroom Costa Mesa homes that are listed below reasonable for current market conditions? All of these Costa Mesa homes are detached, single-family homes, with no Mellos Roos fee and no HOA fees. Also, note that all the homes listed below are short sales except for the home at 1118 Paularino Avenue.

3209 Colorado Place, Meas Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $399,000 ($259/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1543 SF. From the listing description: “Needs TLC - may have structural damage.”
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2112 Wallace Avenue, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $400,000 ($340/SF)
• What: 1955 detached house with 1176 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

570 Traverse Drive, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $430,000 ($239/SF)
• What: 1965 detached home with 1796 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2923 Peppertree Lane, Mesa Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $434,900 ($305/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1426 SF and a backyard Jacuzzi
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

1118 Paularino Ave, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price:$439,000 ($285/SF)
• What: 1963 detached house with 1538 SF and a swimming pool
• HOA: none listed

3129 Dublin Street, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $439,000 ($366/SF)
• What: 1957 detached house with 1200 SF and a pool, spa, outdoor fireplace, and built-in BBQ
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

According to Redfin, there were 5 detached houses and 9 condos on the resale market in Irvine’s Portola Springs development in September. The median selling price per square foot for a detached home was $377. The median selling price per square foot for a condo was $349. More information on Portola Springs is available at the Portola Spring HOA website.

The nearby community of Ivy in Woodbury East is the new construction development that has easily sold out phase one, two and three (however, this total only about 30 homes sold from the 500 that will eventually be sold).

The prices for Ivy homes are as follows:

• Two-bedroom Ivy homes, which are 1180 square feet, are selling for $356,990 ($303/SF).
• Three-bedroom Ivy homes which are 1394, 1503 and 1500 square feet, are selling for $400,990 ($288/SF), $421,990 ($281/SF), and $441,990 ($295/SF), respectively.

To decide if the Portola Spring homes are reasonable priced, compare these Ivy prices with the prices of the following Portola Spring homes. Since both of these developments have a similar look, are located in the same area, and are new or nearly new construction, my though is that they should be priced in the same ballpark.

To see all resale home that are currently on the market, see the Portola Springs map. Also, new construction, as well as resale homes, is currently available in Portola Springs.

38 Cactus Bloom Irvine, CA 92618

• Asking price: $489,900 ($407/SF)
• What: 2 beds/3 baths, 1205 SF, 2008 condo
• HOA: $175 and $120

49 Silverado Irvine, CA 92618

• Asking price: $495,000 ($306 SF)
• What: 3 beds/3 baths, 1617 SF, 2008 condo
• HOA: $175 and $191

78 Full Moon Irvine, CA 92618

• Asking price: $498,000 ($308 SF)
• What: 3 beds/3 baths, 1617 SF,  2007 condo
• HOA: $175 and $191
• This is a short sale.

39 White Sage Irvine, CA 92618 (Los Arboles neighborhood)

• Asking price: $744,755($372/SF)
• Listed on Oct 6, 2009 for: $739,185 ($369 SF)
• What: 3 beds/3 baths, 2003 SF, 2009 condo
• HOA: $175 and $124

Movie on the Lawn–free admission, $8 parking-located at the Preview Park

“The Dark Knight“–October 10, 2009–8:00 PM

Balloon Rides–free admission-located at the Preview Park

“The Great Park Balloon is the Orange County Great Park’s first major attraction. With the ability to hold up to 25 to 30 visitors and soar up to 500 feet above the surrounding landscape, passengers can watch the Great Park’s development unfold as construction activity increases.”

The free flights are available year round, weather and wind permitting. Call ahead (866) 829-3829 (toll-free), or send an email to info@greatparkballoon.org.

Great Park Pumpkin Harvest (and Food Drive)–free admission, $8 parking–located at the Preview Park

October 24, 2009–1 PM to 5 PM

“Enjoy an afternoon of fall activities, including pumpkin picking* and decorating, games, kids crafts and activities, a costume parade, Halloween treats, a petting zoo, and more!”

*One pumpkin per child, while supplies last.

Fall Gardening Workshops—free admission and parking–located at the Great Park Farm and Food Lab

“In 2009, the Park opened its Farm and Food Lab, the beginning of a larger agricultural program planned for the Great Park. The Garden Workshop Series is part of a pilot program designed to introduce community members to the Farm and Food Lab, where they can learn about sustainable home gardening practices for a healthy lifestyle.”

• The Busy Gardener–October 10, 2009–10:00 AM to Noon–October 10, 2009-10:00 AM to Noon
• Spice Up Your Life - Grow Your Own Herbs–November 14, 2009–10:00 AM to Noon
• Holiday Crafts from the Garden–November 21, 2009–10:00 AM to Noon

Over 100 tons of fruits and vegetables grown at the Orange County Great Park Community Farm and neighboring farms have been donated to the Orange County Food Bank. If you have a garden, you might do the same. You can make sure nothing from your garden is wasted by donating any extra fruits and vegetables to a food bank, such as the Second Harvest Food Bank, which is located at the Great Park, or the Orange County Food Bank.

Natural History Lecture series–free admission and parking–located at Second Harvest

“The Orange County Great Park presents the Natural History Lecture series, a series of evening events offering new insights into our natural and dynamic Southern Californian environment.”

• Native California Bees Looking for New Real Estate–October 8, 2009–7 PM
• 21st Century Megafires in Southern California: Adapting to Fires in Paradise–October 22, 2009–7:00 PM

Also, tickets for Cirque du Soleil’s January 2009 performances at the Great Park are currently on sale.

PHOTOS AND QUOTES COURTESY THE ORANGE COUTNY GREAT PARK WEBSITE

An example of a home that is near the mid-price for an Irvine home is at 46 Snapdragon.* This home, located in the El Camino and Deerfield Park area (92604), went on the market in July for $519,000. Then it was delisted and relisted various times. Maybe this has to do this the information on the listing that states escrow cannot close before December 22nd of this year. The interesting part is that the current list price is an increase of $10,000 from the original list price.

Nearby 37 Snapdragon #20, also a three bedroom, sold in June 2009 for $435,000 or $298 per square foot. And another three-bedroom condo at 37 Snapdragon is currently on the market for $435,000 or $290 per square foot. However, the exterior picture for 37 Snapdragon is not as appealing as the exterior picture for 46 Snapdragon, and the 37 Snapdragon homes are smaller than the 46 Snapdragon home.

Current listing information for 46 Snapdragon:

• Asking price: $529,000 ($322/SF)
• HOA fee: $47 and $210
• What: condo built in 1975
• Size: 3 beds/2.5 baths with 1645 square feet
• Previously sold: n/a

Listing history for 46 Snapdragon:

• September 12, 2009–Price Changed to $529,000
• September 10, 2009–Relisted
• September05, 2009–Delisted
• September 05, 2009–Relisted
• August 22, 2009–Delisted
• July 31, 2009–Listed at $519,000

*According to Redfin, the median selling price in June for an Irvine home was $537,000 or $320 per square foot. According to Trulia, the median selling price for Irvine homes that were on the market between June and August was $555,000. And, finally, according to the California Association of Realtors, Irvine’s median selling price was $551,000 in June and $580,000 in August.

As I wrote yesterday (”The Stealth Sell Out of Phase 3 Ivy homes in Irvine“), prices for Ivy homes, the new construction development in Irvine’s Woodbury East, have increased as each new phase was put on the market (except for Residence D, which went down $1,000 from the last price that was listed for this model).

As the following lists show, current prices are between $2,000 and $6,000 more than they were in phase 2 (again, this excludes Residence D, which was not available in phase two). The address for the Ivy homes, built by William Lyons Homes, is 20 Opus, Irvine 92618.

Current Prices  (as of September 10, according to Trulia):

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,180 square feet, priced from $356,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,394 square feet, priced from $400,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,500 square feet, priced from $441,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,503 square feet, priced from $421,990

Phase 2, August 1 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,180 square feet, priced from $354,990
  
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,394 square feet, priced from $394,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,500 square feet, priced from $439,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 1,503 square feet, NOT AVAILABLE

Phase 1, July 11 prices:

• Residence A: Two bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage; 1,180 square feet, priced from $349,990
• Residence B: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,394 square feet, priced from $389,990
• Residence C: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,500 square feet, priced from $427,990
• Residence D: Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths and a 2-car garage, 1,503 square feet, priced from $422,990

Additional costs:

• Mello Roos fees about $3,971 per year
• HOA dues about $134 monthly for the master association and $175 for the sub-association

GRAPHIC IS THE FLOOR PLAN FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND FLOORS OF RESIDENCE B. WHEN COMPARED TO PHASE TWO PRICES, RESIDENCE B IVY HOME PRICES INCREASED MORE THAN RESIDENCE A, C, OR D.

Note: See yesterday’s post (“The Stealth Sell Out of Phase 3 Ivy homes in Irvine“), for a list of additional posts on the Ivy development.

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the index number for each city.

Altos Market Action Index for Central Orange County cities, week ending on September 13, 2009:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

• September 13, 2009: 18.97
• July 12, 2009: 21.13

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

• September 13, 2009: 20.72
• July 12, 2009: 26.05

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 13, 2009: 16.63
• July 12, 2009: 14.50

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

• September 13, 2009: 17.18
• July 12, 2009: 18.31

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

• September 13, 2009: 12.31
• July 12, 2009: 11.90

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

• September 13, 2009: 11.04
• July 12, 2009: 11.42

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

• September 13, 2009: 18.15
• July 12, 2009: 19.26

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

• September 13, 2009: 20.40
• July 12, 2009: 21.75

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 13, 2009: 14.24
• July 12, 2009: 12.91

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

• September 13, 2009: 17.55
• July 12, 2009: 19.09

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• September 13, 2009: 14.33
• July 12, 2009: 8.43

Summary: All Central Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. In general, according to the index numbers, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has decreased since July 12th.  And in general, the lower-priced home markets are currently healthy than the high-priced areas.

In yesterday’s post, I compared two similarly priced homes in Irvine’s 92602 ZIP code. If you are interested in buying a home in this area (or just curious), here is a look at some recent housing statistics for this ZIP that might help.

As reported by Redfin, the housing numbers for Irvine’s 92602 ZIP code, which includes Irvine’s Northpark and West Irvine neighborhoods, were as follows in July 2009. The graphs, courtesy Redfin, are in descending order: 92602 inventory, 92602 detached house price per square foot, 92602 condo price per square foot.

Homes on market (inventory)

• detached house–56
• condos–72

Median price per square foot

• detached house
  list–$346/SF
  sold–n/a

• condo
  list–$318/SF
  sold–n/a

Price reductions*:

• Percentage of home with price reductions
  Detached house–38.9%
  Condo–33.3%
• Total percent of the reduction
  Detached house–5.7%
  Condo–3.6%

Median days on Redfin*

• Detached house: 68
• Condo: 48

Also note that the Redfin’s overall list price for the 92602 ZIP in July 2009 was $595,000, and the May 2009 sold price was $628,000. In addition, 25 homes in this ZIP sold in May 2009.

*Based on homes sold or taken off the market between June 3, 2009 and September 1, 2009

Following is a comparison of two similarly priced homes in Irvine’s 92602 ZIP.

At 30 Avalon, Irvine, CA 92602 is a detached Northpark condo built in 2002 with 3 beds/2.5 baths and 1601 square feet. Homeowners association fee is a reasonable $128 per month and includes access to a pool, spa, barbecue, and sports court. As with all HOA, there are rule. And although I don’t know exactly what they are, apparently rules about pets are one of these. The asking price is $648,900 ($405 per square foot).

Considering that another detached condo with 1750 square feet in West Irvine (82 Sorenson, Irvine, CA 92602) is listed for approximately the same price and currently accepting backup offers, this seems high. The Sorenson home, which was built in 2001, has 4 bedrooms/3 baths, and the asking price is $650,000 ($371/SF). HOA fees are $100 and $50 per month.

I like the exterior look of the Northpark home; however, the MLS pictures show a lack of light in some rooms (either this or just poor pictures). And then there is the fact that the size is smaller than the West Irvine home. The Northpark home has only been listed for one day, so it will be interesting to see what happens with this home. The West Irvine home is also worth watching. Even if a home is listed as accepting backup offers, it does not mean that a sale is pending.

I’ll check back on both of these homes to see what the final outcome is.

Tomorrow: a look at the housing numbers for this part of Irvine