Sweet Orange

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of homes in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County homes that are under $600,000. You can pick out the city of interest to you and see what is happening in that market. You can also do some compare and contrast with other cities.

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached-5%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 5.98
  October 18, 2009: 6.48
  September 20, 2009: 3.04
  July 19, 2009: 6.07
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $239,438
  October 18, 2009: $260,054
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$216/SF; condo-$146/SF
  September 2009: house-$244/SF; condo-$153/SF

Note: Laguna Wood is a 55+ community. HOA fees are usually at least $600; many are substantially higher than this.

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached-60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 20.75
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 16.95
  July 19, 2009: 17.37
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $500,660
  October 18, 2009: $515,250
• Redfin median sold price
  November 2009: house-$284/SF; condo-$230/SF
  September 2009: house-$276/SF; condo-$254/SF

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached-70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 19.64
  October 18, 2009: 21.04
  September 20, 2009: 18.69
  July 19, 2009: 16.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $541,035
  October 18, 2009: $539,279
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$281/SF; condo-$230/SF
  September 2009: house-$302/SF; condo-$252/SF

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached-55%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 18.26
  October 18, 2009: 18.83
  September 20, 2009: 16.45
  July 19, 2009: 16.64
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $527,331
  October 18, 2009: $546,546
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$270/SF; condo-$258/SF
  September 2009: house-$299/SF; condo-$279/SF

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached-25%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  December 13 2009: 23.31
  October 18, 2009: 22.68
  September 20, 2009: 20.37
  July 19, 2009:  18.09
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  December 13 2009: $590,935
  October 18, 2009: $595,254
• Redfin median sold price:
  November 2009: house-$299/SF; condo-$260/SF
  September 2009: house-$244/SF; condo-$186/SF

Up next: South Orange County Housing Numbers for homes between $600,000 to $1,000,000

Here is an interesting factoid: Irvine housing is general accepted as being more expensive than many surrounding areas, including Costa Mesa. However, Redfin shows that in September Costa Mesa houses sold for $403 per square foot, and Irvine houses sold for a lesser amount–$338 per square foot to be exact. However, when it comes to condos Irvine wins in the more expensive category (Irvine–$318/SF; Costa Mesa–$217/SF).

I should also point out that many of the Irvine homes have HOA fees and, in some cases, Mellos Roos taxes. Since Costa Mesa has a substantial number of older homes, these fees are less prevalent in Costa Mesa. This should all be factored in when determining housing costs.

Something else to factor in: The percentage of homes in Irvine that are condos is much higher than is true in Costa Mesa. Approximately 60% of Irvine homes that are currently on the market are condos, whereas approximately 35% of Costa Mesa homes that are currently on the market are condos.

Here are some numbers for cities adjacent to Irvine. Note that the Tustin-compared-to-Irvine numbers tell a story that is similar to the Costa Mesa-compared-to-Irvine numbers:

• Tustin: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF (approximately 50% condos)
• Lake Forest: house–$276/SF; condo–$254/SF (approximately 40% condos)
• Newport Beach: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF (approximately 30% condos)

I will follow up on this next week by taking a look at an Irvine house with a listing price that is near the Irvine median price per square foot and a Costa Mesa house with a listing price that is near the Costa Mesa median price per square foot.

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: When comparing the North, Central and South Orange County housing markets, North Orange County is in the best shape, next is Central Orange County, and last is South Orange County. As is true for the North and Central areas, the low-end of the South Orange County market is in better shape than the high-end.

The housing difficulties started with the low-end of the Orange County housing market and worked their way up to the high-end of the market. Likewise, when this downturn first started, the housing difficulties were more prevalent in North Orange County (an area that is generally less expensive than Central or South Orange County), and then reached Central Orange County and is currently having the biggest impact on South Orange County.

High-end Laguna Beach, the only South Orange County city that saw a decrease in the Altos index number, went deeper into a buyers’ market. And according to the Altos index numbers, the more affordably priced Aliso Viejo has the strongest housing market in South Orange County. For more on the Aliso Viejo housing market, see Jon Lansner’s post “Hardest O.C. city to find a home? Aliso Viejo!”

However, according to the Altos index numbers, all South Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. The bottom line is that no level or area of the Orange County housing market is being spared during this downturn.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County housing market:

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 22.68
  September 20, 2009: 20.37
  July 19, 2009:  18.09
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $595,254
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$186/SF

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  n/a
  
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  n/a
• Redfin median sold price:
  n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 14.75
  September 20, 2009: 14.32
  July 19, 2009: 15.68
• Altos median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $1,053,46
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$264/SF; condo–$493/SF

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 17.38
  July 19, 2009: 6.20
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $834,077
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–n/a

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 13.39
  September 20, 2009: 13.69
  July 19, 2009: 11.84
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $2,281,775
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house--$1646/SF; condo–$374/SF

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.69
  September 20, 2009: 16.27
  July 19, 2009: 13.26
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $850,712
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$405/SF; condo–$142/SF

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.26
  September 20, 2009: 16.69
  July 19, 2009: 15.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $791,188
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$304/SF; condo–$239/SF

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached–5%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 6.48
  September 20, 2009: 3.04
  July 19, 2009: 6.07
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $260,054
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$153/SF

Note: Laguna Wood is a 55+ community. HOA fees are usually at least $600; many are substantially higher than this.

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached–60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 16.95
  July 19, 2009: 17.37
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $515,250
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$276/SF; condo–$254/SF

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 21.04
  September 20, 2009: 18.69
  July 19, 2009: 16.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $539,279
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$302/SF; condo–$252/SF

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.83
  September 20, 2009: 16.45
  July 19, 2009: 16.64
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $546,546
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$299/SF; condo–$279/SF

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 16.07
  September 20, 2009: 14.95
  July 19, 2009: 12.67
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $869,131
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$222/SF; condo–$345/SF
  

Note: The price per square foot for a San Clemente house is down 40% from the previous month; the condo price is down only 1%.

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 15.03
  September 20, 2009: 13.24
  July 19, 2009: 10.86
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $1,021,748
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$289/SF; condo–$124/SF

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home on the market in each city that are detached.

To see which homes are currently on the market as well as which homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city (listing price, price per square foot, etc.), click on the index number for each city.

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 20, 2009: 20.37
• July 19, 2009:  18.09

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 20, 2009: 14.32
  
• July 19, 2009: 15.68

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 20, 2009: 17.38
  
• July 19, 2009: 6.20

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–82%

• September 20, 2009: 13.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 11.84

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–48%

• September 20, 2009: 16.27
  
• July 19, 2009: 13.26

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–62%

• September 20, 2009: 16.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 15.23

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached–5%

• September 20, 2009: 3.04
  
• July 19, 2009: 6.07

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached–61%

• September 20, 2009: 16.95
  
• July 19, 2009: 17.37

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

• September 20, 2009: 18.69
  
• July 19, 2009: 16.23

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

• September 20, 2009: 16.45
  
• July 19, 2009: 16.64

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–76%

• September 20, 2009: 14.95
  
• July 19, 2009: 12.67

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

• September 20, 2009: 13.24
  
• July 19, 2009: 10.86

Summary: According to the index numbers, all South Orange County markets for detached houses are buyers’ markets. In general, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has increased since July 19th; however, the index number still show South Orange County housing is in a weaker position than the North or Central areas.

The hard-hit area of Ladera Ranch saw the biggest improvement. The detached houses in the  55+ community of Laguna Woods is the weakest housing market in South Orange County. But only about 5% of these homes are detached, so this number is not that telling.

In yesterday’s post, I wrote about Ivy, the new housing development in Irvine, and some of the features that make Irvine Irvine. In the first post that I wrote in my past life as a Redfin blogger, I wrote about this.  As I wrote at that time, some love Irvine and what it has to offer; others are not so impressed.

Those on the con side say that Irvine is too controlled, too monotonous, and too  “beige.” They are in agreement with many who have been taking Erica Chavez’s  “smackdown” polls. These polls ask voters to chose which of two similar homes the voters would prefer to buy: a home in Irvine or a home  in cities such as Lake Forest, Fullerton and North Tustin. For Irvine, at best, it’s a draw, but in most cases Irvine comes out on the bottom.

In spite of this, Irvine continues to be popular with buyers and command a higher price than homes in these other Orange County cities. Maybe it is like one of my former fellow-Redfin bloggers said: Irvine is like the kid in school that always has the right answer. Nothing wrong with that but irritates the hell out of the other kids.

In any case, that is why we have choice. You chose: Is Irvine just right or too beige?

A few Irvine factoids from The Irvine Company’s website:

The FBI has ranked Irvine the safest large city in the U.S. for five years in a row.

One-third of the city of Irvine will be set aside for parks, open space and trails.

All Irvine residents are within walking distance of a park.

Ninety percent of all Irvine high school students go to college.

All four of Irivne’s high  schools ranked in the top 5% of the nation’s schools.

Irvine has four of the top elementary schools in Orange County.

Irvine residents have the shortest commute in Orange County.

PHOTO COURTESY THE IRVINE COMPANY

Previously, we took a look at some housing market numbers for North Orange County and Central Orange County. Today, we will take a look at how the South Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 19, 2009.

Note: The brown line in the graphs is the Altos Market Action Index 90-day median; the black line is the Altos Market Action Index 7-day median.

For more numbers associated with each city, click on the city name or Altos Research index number.

Aliso Viejo:

• Altos Research Index– 18.09
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

Coto De Caza:

• Altos Research Index–na
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–87%

Dana Point:

• Altos Research Index– 15.68
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

Ladera Ranch:

• Altos Research Index–16.20
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

Laguna Beach:

• Altos Research Index–11.84
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–82%

Laguna Hills:

• Altos Research Index–13.26
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–48%

Laguna Niguel:

• Altos Research Index–15.23
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–62%

Laguna Woods:

• Altos Research Index–6.07
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–6%

Lake Forest:

• Altos Research Index–17.37
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–61%

Mission Viejo:

• Altos Research Index– 16.23
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%

Rancho Santa Margarita:

• Altos Research Index–16.64
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

San Clemente:

• Altos Research Index–12.67
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–76%

San Juan Capistrano:

• Altos Research Index–10.86
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–68%