Sweet Orange

Here is an example of a home that sold for more than the list price. This home, which is in Irvine’s El Camino neighborhood, was listed on August 12, 2009, for $415,000, delisted on August 19, then relisted on September 8 for $415,000. This El Camino condo sold on 10/19/2009 for $437,500, approximately $22,000 more than the asking price.

8 Pierre Irvine, CA 92604 (El Camino neighborhood)

• 3 beds/2 baths
• 1223 SF
• Condo built in 1977
• HOA: $175
• Asking price: $415,000 ($339/SF)
• Selling price: $437,500 ($358/SF)

Current estimates for this home:

• Cyberhomes: $406,828.
• Eappraisal: $362,930
• Zillow: $438,000.

The University area of the City of Irvine is bordered by the San Diego Freeway (I-405) on the north, Laguna Canyon Road (I-133) on the east, the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor (SR 73) on the south.This area includes the communities of Rancho San Joaquin, Turtle Rock, University Park, University Town Center, Quail Hill, Shady canyon and Turtle Ridge.

The University area also includes the Irvine Business Complex (IBC), which is bordered by the San Diego Creek on the east, Barranca Parkway on the north, The Newport Freeway (I-55) on the west and MacArthur Blvd. on the south.This area of the city includes both commercial and residential areas.–Irvine Police Department website–Irvine’s University district

Housing prices and stats are important information to have handy when considering buying a home. But the stats are only part of the story. Neighborhood characteristics are also important. With that in mind, following are some links that provide descriptions of the neighborhoods in University, which is one of Irvine’s three geopolicing districts. Special thanks goes to the Irvine Housing Blog.

• Rancho San Joaquin
• Turtle Rock
• Turtle Ridge, see the Orange County Business Journal article: “Turtle Ridge? Lifestyle combines City Life with European-Inspired Country Charm”
• Shady Canyon, also see the Orange County Business Journal articles
• Quail Hill
• University Park
• University Town Center, also see “Irvine’s Town Center: Then and Now”
• Irvine Business Complex (IBC), also see the City of Irvine’s IBC webpage

For information on inventory and pricing of homes in this Irvine district, see “Irvine by the Neighborhood: University District Home Pricing & Inventory Statistics.”

Many of the cities with the longest road to recovery are California cities, where home prices rocketed out of control, and entire economies were supported largely by a real estate bubble. Fresno, Modesto, Salinas, Bakersfield, Stockton and Los Angeles all saw home prices soar to unsustainable levels and then begin their inevitable plunge.
–”The Best And Worst Cities For Recession Recovery” by Joshua Zumbrun

According to Forbes, a median priced home in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana metropolitan area costs over five times the median income of this southern California area.

Here are some other economic stats from Forbes on the area that they call Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana:

• GDP at start of recession: $597 billion
• Projected GDP at the end of 2010: $581 billion (-2.6%, projected)
• Unemployment: 10.1%
• Median home/median salary ratio: 5.3

Forbes also states that although the southern California area was hit hard by the real estate bust, the area still “has a robust underlying economy” and the economy is growing. However, the area “still has some of the most expensive real estate in the country, indicating a housing recovery could be years away.”

Meanwhile, home buildeing company Standard Pacific is gung ho on housing in Orange County:

This [Orange County] is our best-performing area in the world.
–Ken Campbell, Standard president and CEO

According to First American CoreLogic’s August index report, the median selling price for houses in Orange County was 7.9% less than it was in August 2008. If the distressed properties (short sale and bank-owned properties) are excluded, the decrease is 7.1%. However, First American sees an increase for the Orange County median selling price in 2010.

Here is First American’s 2010 prediction for Orange County housing prices as well as some others. The percentages listed are the amount that the median home price in Orange County is predicted to increase or decrease by next year. I have listed them in descending order from the most optimistic to the least optimistic forecast.

• UCLA Anderson Center–up 15.9% to 16.6%
• First American CoreLogic–up 9.5% (California prices up 7.9%, U.S. prices up 4.6%)
• Veros–up 2% by year-end September 2010 for their benchmark, which is single-family mid-priced homes
• Anil Puri of Cal State Fullerton–down during the first half of 2010, then flat or up 2% to 3%

Keep in mind that a predicted increase for the median price of all Orange County homes does not necessarily mean that the price for your home or a home that you want to buy is predicted to increase. Rather it could just mean that more homes on the high- or mid-level will sell during the next year that did this year.

Up to this point most of the homes selling in Orange County (or the nation for that matter) were on the low-end of the housing market. As more homes on the mid- and high-end of the market are sold, the overall median selling price will increase, but the selling price of many of the individual homes in the mid- and high-end might decrease from what the home would have sold for in the previous year.

For more information, see “Forecast sees 9.5% price gain for O.C. homes,” Jeff Collins, OC Register November 3, 2009

This energy efficient and ecologically built residence will demonstrate how homeowners can conserve energy and dollars by adopting and
utilizing green building products and services. It will feature an unparalleled display of energy-saving systems and environmentally friendly materials in a fully operational residence.–Living Green Homes Construction and Development, Inc. on its newly built Huntington Beach home

Saving money and energy. Sounds like a good combination for our economically-strapped times, or any time for that matter. Developer Living Green Homes is attempting to prove a way to do this with its newly built Huntington Beach home that they are seeking a GreenPoint Rated designation from Built It Green as well as the LEED Platinum rating from the U.S. Green Building Council. The 3213 square-foot, three-story, single-family home has three bedrooms, three full bathrooms and two half bathrooms. It is located in downtown Huntington Beach at 319 21st Street.

If you want to tour this new green home, you can attend today’s grand opening from 1:30 to 4:30. The grand opening will include speakers as well as food and drink from local restaurants. These include 118 Degrees Restaurant, which is located in Costa Mesa, as well as  Andrei’s Conscious Cuisine and Portola Handcrafted Coffee Roasters, which are both located in Irvine.

If you can’t make the grand opening, tours will available in the coming months. During the tours, the sponsors will provide product demonstrations for environmentally friendly building products, appliances, hardware, and services. Eventually, this home will go on the market.

Note: A YouTube video that provides more background on this project is available. Also, thanks to Evan Little of Surtterre Properties for the tweet that informed me of this event.

Related post: “Going for the Green–and Platinum–in Orange County: The Environmental Nature Center in Newport Beach”

According to Redfin, the median price per square foot that a single-family home in Costa Mesa sold for in September was $403/SF. Here are some Costa Mesa homes that are currently on the market that have list prices that are near this median price per square foot.

The square footage for these detached houses range from 1470 square feet (458 Swarthmore Lane) to 3504 square feet  (178 Flower Street). The house on La Playa has a $90 monthly homeowner association (HOA) fee listed; the other houses have no HOA fee listed. None of these houses are listed as a short sale; however, the Swarthmore Lane house is listed as corporate owned.

178 Flower Street: 5 bed/5.5 baths in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$1,399,000 or $399 per SF

2189 Tustin Avenue: 3 bed/2.5 baths in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$1,249,000 or $416 per SF

157 Del  Mar Avenue: 3 bed/2.75 bath in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$599,000 or $408 per SF (update: changed November 2 to $579,900 or $394/SF)

2296 La Playa Drive: 2 bed/2 bath in Eastside Costa Mesa 92627
Asking price–$574,900 or $396 per SF (update: changed November 2 to $549,900 or $379/SF)

458 Swarthmore Lane: 3 bed/1.75 bath in Central Costa Mesa 92626
Asking price–$539,000 or $393 per SF

Note: According to DQNews, in September, Costa Mesa’s overall median selling price for condos and houses combined was $485,000. According to Redfn, the overall medain selling price in August for Costa Mesa houses was $551,000, and the overall medain selling price for Costa Mesa condos was $300,000.

As a follow up on one of last week’s post, here is a comparison of two single-family houses that are priced near the September median price per square foot for their cities. One is in Irvine; the other is in Costa Mesa.

Irvine house that is priced near the Irvine median price/SF ($338/SF):

64 Rockport, Northpark Neighborhood

• Asking price: $839,000 ($336/SF)
• What: 2000 detached house with 4 bed/2.5 bath with 2500 SF
• Lot size: 4317 SF
• HOA fee: $175/month
• This is a short sale.

Note: An open house is being held for this home on this Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.

Open house hours:

• November 5 at 11am-1pm
• November 7 at 12 pm-5pm
• November 8 at 1pm-5pm

Costa Mesa house that is priced near the Costa Mesa median price/SF ($403/SF):

2039 Phalarope Court, Mesa Verde Area:

• Asking price: $899,000 ($415/SF)
• What: 1966 detached house with 4 bed/2.5 bath and 2166 SF
• Lot size: 7035 SF
• HOA fee: none listed

Note: In June, this home was listed for $1,050,000. In May 2005, this home sold for $810,000.

I have posts that take a deeper look at Costa Mesa and Irvine homes that are priced near the median price per square foot in the works.

Here is an interesting factoid: Irvine housing is general accepted as being more expensive than many surrounding areas, including Costa Mesa. However, Redfin shows that in September Costa Mesa houses sold for $403 per square foot, and Irvine houses sold for a lesser amount–$338 per square foot to be exact. However, when it comes to condos Irvine wins in the more expensive category (Irvine–$318/SF; Costa Mesa–$217/SF).

I should also point out that many of the Irvine homes have HOA fees and, in some cases, Mellos Roos taxes. Since Costa Mesa has a substantial number of older homes, these fees are less prevalent in Costa Mesa. This should all be factored in when determining housing costs.

Something else to factor in: The percentage of homes in Irvine that are condos is much higher than is true in Costa Mesa. Approximately 60% of Irvine homes that are currently on the market are condos, whereas approximately 35% of Costa Mesa homes that are currently on the market are condos.

Here are some numbers for cities adjacent to Irvine. Note that the Tustin-compared-to-Irvine numbers tell a story that is similar to the Costa Mesa-compared-to-Irvine numbers:

• Tustin: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF (approximately 50% condos)
• Lake Forest: house–$276/SF; condo–$254/SF (approximately 40% condos)
• Newport Beach: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF (approximately 30% condos)

I will follow up on this next week by taking a look at an Irvine house with a listing price that is near the Irvine median price per square foot and a Costa Mesa house with a listing price that is near the Costa Mesa median price per square foot.

2960 Champion Way #405 Tustin, CA 92782

• Asking price: $190,000 ($342/SF)
• What: 1992 condo with 1bed/1bath
• Size: 556 SF
• HOA fee: $271 per month

This condo, a short sale, was listed in July for $159,000. Earlier this month, the asking price was increased by $31,000. This brings the current list price to $190,000 or $342 per square foot.

There could be a couple of reasons for this increase: The bank didn’t agree to this Tustin Ranch homeowner’s original list price for this short sale. Or the homeowner read some reports that housing prices have gone up recently, and thought that they could get a higher price. I am guessing the former.

Is this a reasonable price in the current market and considering that nearby listings are asking less? Maybe, the current listing states that backup offers are being accepted. We’ll see if the owners got the full asking price or something less. I’ll keep an eye on the public records to see what the final sales price is.

Nearby listings that also are one bedroom/one bath and have 556 square feet. (And are also short sales.)

• 2960 Champion Way #1504: Asking price–$169,900 ($306/SF)
• 2960 Champion Way #2105: Asking price–$179,900 ($322/SF)

In addition, 2960 Champion Way #2405 sold for $150,000 on March 19, 2009. In May 2008, the asking price was $254,500. This was under a different MLS number.

Listing history for 2960 Champion Way #405 under the current MLS number (CARETS #U9003095):

• October 8, 2009–Price Changed $190,000
• October 8, 2009–Relisted
• July 9, 2009–Listed $159,000
• January 15, 1993–Sold $88,000

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: When comparing the North, Central and South Orange County housing markets, North Orange County is in the best shape, next is Central Orange County, and last is South Orange County. As is true for the North and Central areas, the low-end of the South Orange County market is in better shape than the high-end.

The housing difficulties started with the low-end of the Orange County housing market and worked their way up to the high-end of the market. Likewise, when this downturn first started, the housing difficulties were more prevalent in North Orange County (an area that is generally less expensive than Central or South Orange County), and then reached Central Orange County and is currently having the biggest impact on South Orange County.

High-end Laguna Beach, the only South Orange County city that saw a decrease in the Altos index number, went deeper into a buyers’ market. And according to the Altos index numbers, the more affordably priced Aliso Viejo has the strongest housing market in South Orange County. For more on the Aliso Viejo housing market, see Jon Lansner’s post “Hardest O.C. city to find a home? Aliso Viejo!”

However, according to the Altos index numbers, all South Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. The bottom line is that no level or area of the Orange County housing market is being spared during this downturn.

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the South Orange County housing market:

Aliso Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 22.68
  September 20, 2009: 20.37
  July 19, 2009:  18.09
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $595,254
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$186/SF

Coto De Caza: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  n/a
  
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  n/a
• Redfin median sold price:
  n/a

Dana Point: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 14.75
  September 20, 2009: 14.32
  July 19, 2009: 15.68
• Altos median list price:
  October 18, 2009: $1,053,46
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$264/SF; condo–$493/SF

Ladera Ranch: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 17.38
  July 19, 2009: 6.20
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $834,077
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–n/a

Laguna Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 13.39
  September 20, 2009: 13.69
  July 19, 2009: 11.84
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $2,281,775
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house--$1646/SF; condo–$374/SF

Laguna Hills: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.69
  September 20, 2009: 16.27
  July 19, 2009: 13.26
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $850,712
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$405/SF; condo–$142/SF

Laguna Niguel: approximate % homes on market that are detached–60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.26
  September 20, 2009: 16.69
  July 19, 2009: 15.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $791,188
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$304/SF; condo–$239/SF

Laguna Woods: approximate % homes on market that are detached–5%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 6.48
  September 20, 2009: 3.04
  July 19, 2009: 6.07
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $260,054
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$244/SF; condo–$153/SF

Note: Laguna Wood is a 55+ community. HOA fees are usually at least $600; many are substantially higher than this.

Lake Forest: approximate % homes on market that are detached–60%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 19.40
  September 20, 2009: 16.95
  July 19, 2009: 17.37
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $515,250
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$276/SF; condo–$254/SF

Mission Viejo: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 21.04
  September 20, 2009: 18.69
  July 19, 2009: 16.23
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $539,279
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$302/SF; condo–$252/SF

Rancho Santa Margarita: approximate % homes on market that are detached–55%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 18.83
  September 20, 2009: 16.45
  July 19, 2009: 16.64
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $546,546
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$299/SF; condo–$279/SF

San Clemente: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 16.07
  September 20, 2009: 14.95
  July 19, 2009: 12.67
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $869,131
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$222/SF; condo–$345/SF
  

Note: The price per square foot for a San Clemente house is down 40% from the previous month; the condo price is down only 1%.

San Juan Capistrano: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Action Index:
  October 18, 2009: 15.03
  September 20, 2009: 13.24
  July 19, 2009: 10.86
• Altos median list price for detached houses:
  October 18, 2009: $1,021,748
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$289/SF; condo–$124/SF