Sweet Orange

On February 11th, the Orange County Home Ownership Preservation Collaborative (OC HOPC) is offering a free workshop for anyone who needs help with preventing a foreclosure on their home. This is part of the on-going free foreclosure prevention workshops that OC HOPC is providing in partnership with various organizations. The February 11th workshop is in partnership with the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), City of Santa Ana, National Association of Realtors, California Association of Realtors, Orange County Association of Realtors, and Calvary Church.

HUD-approved housing counselors, legal counselors and lenders will be on-site to help at the workshop. However, only homeowners whose names are on the mortgage can be assisted, so OC HOPC asks that you do not send someone in your place. If you need assistance but can’t make this workshop, you might contact OC HOPE and ask what other help is available or when and where the next workshop will be held.

Here are the details for the upcoming OC HOPC workshop:

When: Thursday, February 11, 2010
Session 1–2:30 to 4:30 pm (English, registration begins at 2:00 pm)
Session 2–5:30 to 7:30 pm (Spanish, registration begins at 5:00 pm)

Where: Calvary Church, 1010 N. Tustin Avenue, Santa Ana

Who: Open to public
RSVP Recommended (www.oc.myhousingforall.org or e-mail myhousingforall@aol.com)

What to Bring:

• Your loan documents and recent mortgage statement
• Your two most current pay stubs
• Your most recent W2s–two-years worth
• Your most recent tax returns–two-years worth
• A list of your monthly expenses

Cost: Free

Again, if you need help with preventing a foreclosure but can’t attend this workshop, contact OC HOPC to see what other help is available.

Here are the most recent Orange County foreclosure numbers from DQNews:

Notice of Defaults (NODs)–This is the first step in the foreclosure process; however, this does not necessarily end in the home being taken back by the lender.

Fourth Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–5,555
• 2008–4,481
• This is a 24.0% year-over-year increase. However, the quarter-to-quarter number of NODs deceased.

Third Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–7,436
• 2008—5,692
• This is a 30.6% year-over-year increase.

Trustee Sales Recorded–This is the last step in the foreclosure process. The home is sold to a new owner at a trustee auction or taken back by the lender in this stage of the foreclosure process.

Fourth Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–2,235
• 2008–2,088
• This is a 7.0% year-over-year increase. In addition, the quarter-to-quarter number of trustee sales is approximately the same.

Third Quarter 2009 Year-Over-Year Numbers:

• 2009–2,238
• 2008—3,997
• This is a 44.0% year-over-year decrease.

The 5 ambassadors from the remote Pacific Island of Tanna were handpicked by their elders to undertake the mission to America. They come from a community with a traditional way of life ….

They have never left Vanuatu before, and though aware of the outside world, they have made an active choice to retain these traditional ways.–Travel Channel

Today is Christmas, a good time to ask the question: Can we all find a way to set aside our differences and establish some good will in spite of these differences? Tribesmen from the remote Pacific island of Tanna, where none of the modern conveniences exist, seem to have found a way to find common ground with the various “U.S. tribes,” including the “Orange County tribe.” And the U.S. tribes seem to have taken a liking to these Tanna natives in spite of the many differences.

Take a look at some of the clips, and you will see what I mean. They suggest that common ground is possible among the various tribes of the world.

Best wishes for a wonderful holiday and a peaceful New Year.

If you follow the housing news, you have probably read and heard numerous times that the median price for an Orange County home has gone up in recent months. For example, DQNews reports that the October median selling price for Orange County homes is up 3.9% from last October.

However, a report by The Real Estate Research Council of Southern California, which is located at Cal Poly Pomona, provides a different picture. Housing appraisers provide the input for the report by reviewing a sample of homes every October and April. The sample consists of the same homes being appraised and compared during each appraisal cycle.

Here are the October 2009 results:

• Orange County home prices are falling 15% annually. (The April report showed that O.C. home prices were down 14% from the previous April.)
• Orange County housing prices have been falling for three years.
• The amount of decline varies by region:
  –North Orange County: down 20.9%
  –Central Orange County: down 17.7%
  –South Orange County and beach areas: down 9%

A report by mortgage insurer PMI Group also shows a decline in Orange County housing prices. The PMI report states that the value of Orange County homes in the second quarter of this year was down 7.81%. In addition, PMI calculates that Orange County housing prices have a 99.9% chance of declining in the next two years.

A likely explanation for the conflicting pictures that the various numbers are painting is as follows: More homes at the mid- and high-end of the market are selling now than in the recent past. This brings up the median price for Orange County homes as a whole, but individual home prices might still be decreasing.

Sources:
Jonathan Lansner, “Appraisers see O.C. home prices off 15%,” The Orange County Register
Kristen Schott, “Orange County among 10 riskiest housing markets nationwide.” OC Metro

Are we all socialist now? Based on comments from some surprising sources, the answer to this question might be “Yes.  At least if it is to our advantage at the moment.”

A curious example on the city level can be found in Costa Mesa. As you know, the California budget is a mess. We’re in the “red” by the billions. One of the solutions that the governor suggested and is now in the process of being made a reality is the sale of state assets, including an iconic piece of Orange County land in Costa Mesa, the Orange County Fairgrounds.

Well, the Costa Mesa city council, that bastion of free-market rights and a let-the-private-sector-do-it attitude, is not about to let the market have its way with the fairgrounds. As Mayor Mansoor, an ardent free-marketeer, stated, he is not interested in selling “the heart of the community.” Apparently, even the most hard-core capitalist doesn’t think that the bottom line should be judged solely in a monetary way.

In spite of Costa Mesa’s objections, the city could not keep the state of California from putting the fairgrounds on the market. However, Costa Mesa is setting up land-use restrictions that will ensure that the Orange County Fairgrounds are used as a fairgrounds and events center only, no matter who the owners end up being. Of course, this greatly reduces the amount that someone or some organization would pay for the land. The state’s Department of General Services, which is in charge of selling the land, is not pleased, and the possibility of litigation is being implied, if not outright threatened.

Some, including some in Costa Mesa, have been critical of the land-use regulations that Irvine has put on the development of the former El Toro Marine Air Station land. They feel that the El Toro land that is being transformed into the Orange County Great Park (Orange County’s first metropolitan park) and the Great Park Neighborhoods (a housing, commercial and open space development by the home building company Lennar and its partners) should be developed strictly by market forces. In other words, no land-use restrictions.

However, what Costa Mesa is considering for the fairgrounds is similar to what Irvine has done for the El Toro land. Costa Mesa wants to ensure that the fairgrounds are used in a way that they feel will provide the most benefit for the area and Costa Mesa residents. Irvine’s intention for the El Toro (and now Orange County Great Park) land is similar. It seems that neither city wants another subdivision-mall development (or public airport) plopped down on large tracts of prime real estate that have historic significance.

Apparently, economic hard times are making for some strange bedfellows in the O.C. and the discovery of “socialists” in the most unusual places.

Which homesellers are more grounded in reality, Costa Mesa or Irvine homesellers? Take a look at the following numbers and decide for yourself. Keep in mind that the median and average are not the same.* If you want to check out the reality gap for your ZIP, see the Trulia ZIP code list.

Irvine

• Average list price: $927,077 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $560,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Irvine was $615,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Irvine was $533,000.

Costa Mesa

• Average list price: $581,194 (week ending September 30)
• Median sales price: $515,000 (July 2009 through September 2009)
  Source: Trulia

To clarify further, Redfin shows that the September median list price in Costa Mesa was $467,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price for a home in Costa Mesa was $485,000.

Finally, for comparison, some Orange County September housing numbers: Redfin shows that the September median list price  was $515,000, and DQNews shows that the September median selling price was $428,000.

When comparing homesellers in Irvine, Costa Mesa and Orange County as a whole, it seems that Costa Mesa homesellers get the most-in-touch-with-reality award.

*Do not confuse this term [median) with the [term] average. They can be quite different for the same sample group. For instance, if you are doing a sold properties report and the homes are very evenly distributed, the median and average might be very similar. However, if the homes sold were weighted more to one end or the other of the price spectrum, then the median and average could be quite different.-About.com: Real Estate Business

**The above graphs are for single-familly houses. To see the the condo price per square foot graph for each area. click on the Redfin links found on this page. Then click on the “Add graph to your site” link.

The Irvine Company rolled out the first sales for Ivy (the new construction development in Irvine’s Woodbury East housing development) in a way that resulted in the quick sellout of phase one, two and three and, therefore, created a lot of buzz. In addition to creating a lot of buzz, the marketing plan for Ivy also provides some insight into what prices the current housing market will allow.

Since the Ivy sales do provide some insight into what price the housing market will currently bear, I imagine that I will be comparing many Orange County home prices to the  Ivy prices.

I already compared Ivy prices to some Portola Spring home prices. Portola Springs home prices are easy to compare to Ivy prices; they are in the same area, look similar, are condos only (at least, the ones that I referenced), and both are new or newly new construction.

Today, something more complicated: Today, I will compare some three-bedroom Costa Mesa detached, resale home prices to the Ivy three-bedroom prices.

For review, three-bedroom homes in the Irvine’s Ivy development, which are all condos, are priced as follows:

• 1394 square feet–$400,990 ($288/SF)
• 1500 square feet–$441,990 ($295/SF)
• 1503 square feet–$421,990 ($281/SF)

Ivy Mello Roos fees are about $3,971 per year. HOA dues are about $134 monthly for the master association and $175 monthly for the sub-association.

With all this in mind, what do you think? Are the prices for the three-bedroom Costa Mesa homes that are listed below reasonable for current market conditions? All of these Costa Mesa homes are detached, single-family homes, with no Mellos Roos fee and no HOA fees. Also, note that all the homes listed below are short sales except for the home at 1118 Paularino Avenue.

3209 Colorado Place, Meas Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $399,000 ($259/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1543 SF. From the listing description: “Needs TLC - may have structural damage.”
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2112 Wallace Avenue, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $400,000 ($340/SF)
• What: 1955 detached house with 1176 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

570 Traverse Drive, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $430,000 ($239/SF)
• What: 1965 detached home with 1796 SF
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

2923 Peppertree Lane, Mesa Verde, CA 92626

• Asking price: $434,900 ($305/SF)
• What: 1959 detached house with 1426 SF and a backyard Jacuzzi
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

1118 Paularino Ave, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price:$439,000 ($285/SF)
• What: 1963 detached house with 1538 SF and a swimming pool
• HOA: none listed

3129 Dublin Street, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $439,000 ($366/SF)
• What: 1957 detached house with 1200 SF and a pool, spa, outdoor fireplace, and built-in BBQ
• HOA: none listed
• This is a short sale.

Here is a look at which three-bedroom condos with a list price under $450,000 are available in Costa Mesa. They are listed from low to high. Four of these eight homes are short sales, and one is bank owned.

Note that no three-bedroom Eastside Costa Mesa homes are available at this price. The lowest-priced three-bedroom homes in Eastside Costa Mesa are two homes listed under $500,000: a condo and a single-family home. The condo is listed at $475,000, and the single-family home is listed at $499,000. Both are short sales.

114 Yorktown Lane, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price: $264,000 ($214/SF)
• What: 1967 condo with 1240 SF
• HOA: $220
• This is bank-owned

3430 Hollow Brook Circle #115, South Coast Metro, CA 92626

• Asking price: $299,000 ($226/SF)
• What: 1976 condo with 1325 SF
• HOA: $320 and $175

377 Avocado Street Unit E, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price $325,000 ($262/SF)
• What: 1991 condo with 1240 SF and two-car garage
• HOA: $156

380 W Wilson Street Unit A103, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $355,000 ($215/SF)
• What: 1980 condo with 1650 SF
• HOA: $225
• This is a short sale.

543 Victoria Unit O, Southwest Costa Mesa, CA 92626

• Asking price: $375,000 ($288/SF)
• What: 1989 condo with 1300 SF
• HOA: $265
• This is a short sale.

Address not listed, Central Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $385,000 ($242/SF)
• What: 1994 4-unit PUD, From the listing description: “The property is located in a small 4 unit PUD at the end of a cul de sac street that is close to shopping, freeways, restaurants and schools. It is in need of work but could be a good deal for an investor or someone who could do some fix up work.”
• HOA: $65
• This is a short sale.

908 Hyde Court, South Coast Metro CA 92626

• Asking price: $425,000 ($229/SF)
• What: 1979 condo with 1853 SF
• HOA: $360

2243 Pacific Avenue #14, Southwest Costa Mesa, CA 92627

• Asking price: $430,000 ($258/SF)
• What: 1980 condo with 1669 SF
• HOA: $218
• This is a short sale.

I’m hopeful in that Santa Ana will some day become a true destination city; where new circulation is brought to our streets-where places like Downtown, The Fiesta Marketplace, 4th Street, and the Station District (including the train depot) are ventured to by people all over Southern California.–Ben Dayhoe, Life at the Santiago Street Lofts–The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

I came across a blog that I haven’t seen before, Life at the Santiago Street Lofts–The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I thought that it had some interesting info on life in Santa Ana, and since I write about development in Orange County, I thought that an excerpt from a recent Santiago Street post was appropriate for reprinting on this blog.

After living in Santa Ana for over three years, it seems as if things are finally happening in the empty lots just West of the Santiago Lofts.

When I first told my friends and family I was moving to Santa Ana, they thought I was crazy. But to me, it made perfect sense because I believe in this city-what it is, what it was, and what it could be.

As of Monday night [August 17], the Related/Griffin team is now one step closer in becoming the master developer for these nearby lots. And after three years of watching other cities evolve while Santa Ana moved at a snail’s pace, I am filled with hope with the thought of what could come to our city.

But at the same time, my hopes are equally met with trepidation and fears.

He goes on to state some of his hopes and fears for the area (one of which can be found at the beginning of this post). Check them out at his blog.  All the Google ad money he gets is donated to Pet Pro Life, a dog rescue program.

Related information:

• The City of Santa Ana: The Station District RFQ
• Santa Ana Downtown National Register District–Wikipedia
• “Santa Ana sees new neighborhood on vacant lots,” The Orange County Register, Doug Irving
• “Santa Ana plan aims for downtown rebirth,”  The Orange County Register, Doug Irving

2007 ARTIST RENDERING OF THE STATION DISTRICT IN SANTA ANA COURTESY THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the index number for each city.

Altos Market Action Index for Central Orange County cities, week ending on September 13, 2009:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

• September 13, 2009: 18.97
• July 12, 2009: 21.13

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

• September 13, 2009: 20.72
• July 12, 2009: 26.05

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 13, 2009: 16.63
• July 12, 2009: 14.50

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

• September 13, 2009: 17.18
• July 12, 2009: 18.31

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

• September 13, 2009: 12.31
• July 12, 2009: 11.90

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

• September 13, 2009: 11.04
• July 12, 2009: 11.42

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

• September 13, 2009: 18.15
• July 12, 2009: 19.26

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

• September 13, 2009: 20.40
• July 12, 2009: 21.75

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 13, 2009: 14.24
• July 12, 2009: 12.91

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

• September 13, 2009: 17.55
• July 12, 2009: 19.09

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• September 13, 2009: 14.33
• July 12, 2009: 8.43

Summary: All Central Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. In general, according to the index numbers, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has decreased since July 12th.  And in general, the lower-priced home markets are currently healthy than the high-priced areas.