Sweet Orange

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: Once again, the markets for all Central Orange County housing are buyers’ markets. However, according to the Altos index numbers, the Central Orange County housing market is stronger than it was in September. And in general, according to the index numbers, the lower-priced home markets are stronger than the high-priced areas. For example, compare Newport Beach, Seal Beach and Villa Park Altos index numbers to the Santa Ana index number.

One more point on the Altos index numbers for Central Orange County cities: Seal Beach showed the least movement since last month, and Los Alamitos showed the biggest increase. correction made 10-21-09 sw

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the Central Orange County housing market:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 20.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.97
  July 12, 2009: 21.13
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $570,626
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$403/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 23.86
  September 13, 2009: 20.72
  July 12, 2009: 26.05
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $598,615
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$304/SF

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 17.86
  September 13, 2009: 16.63
  July 12, 2009: 14.50
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $770,762
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$344/SF; condo–$344/SF

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–45%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 19.21
  September 13, 2009: 17.18
  July 12, 2009: 18.31
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $863,177
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$338/SF; condo–$318/SF

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 16.83
  September 13, 2009: 12.31
  July 12, 2009: 11.90
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $860,346
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$260/SF; condo–$275/SF

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 13.61
  September 13, 2009: 11.04
  July 12, 2009: 11.42
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $1,998,992
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 19.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.15
  July 12, 2009: 19.26
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $552,197
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$254/SF; condo–$213/SF

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 23.04
  September 13, 2009: 20.40
  July 12, 2009: 21.75
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $339,523
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$236/SF; condo–$103/SF

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 14.89
  September 13, 2009: 14.24
  July 12, 2009: 12.91
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $980,553
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$398/SF; condo–$592/SF

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 20.18
  September 13, 2009: 17.55
  July 12, 2009: 19.09
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $629,922
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 16.09
  September 13, 2009: 14.33
  July 12, 2009: 8.43
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $1,202,962
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$376/SF; condo–n/a

I’m hopeful in that Santa Ana will some day become a true destination city; where new circulation is brought to our streets-where places like Downtown, The Fiesta Marketplace, 4th Street, and the Station District (including the train depot) are ventured to by people all over Southern California.–Ben Dayhoe, Life at the Santiago Street Lofts–The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

I came across a blog that I haven’t seen before, Life at the Santiago Street Lofts–The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I thought that it had some interesting info on life in Santa Ana, and since I write about development in Orange County, I thought that an excerpt from a recent Santiago Street post was appropriate for reprinting on this blog.

After living in Santa Ana for over three years, it seems as if things are finally happening in the empty lots just West of the Santiago Lofts.

When I first told my friends and family I was moving to Santa Ana, they thought I was crazy. But to me, it made perfect sense because I believe in this city-what it is, what it was, and what it could be.

As of Monday night [August 17], the Related/Griffin team is now one step closer in becoming the master developer for these nearby lots. And after three years of watching other cities evolve while Santa Ana moved at a snail’s pace, I am filled with hope with the thought of what could come to our city.

But at the same time, my hopes are equally met with trepidation and fears.

He goes on to state some of his hopes and fears for the area (one of which can be found at the beginning of this post). Check them out at his blog.  All the Google ad money he gets is donated to Pet Pro Life, a dog rescue program.

Related information:

• The City of Santa Ana: The Station District RFQ
• Santa Ana Downtown National Register District–Wikipedia
• “Santa Ana sees new neighborhood on vacant lots,” The Orange County Register, Doug Irving
• “Santa Ana plan aims for downtown rebirth,”  The Orange County Register, Doug Irving

2007 ARTIST RENDERING OF THE STATION DISTRICT IN SANTA ANA COURTESY THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the index number for each city.

Altos Market Action Index for Central Orange County cities, week ending on September 13, 2009:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

• September 13, 2009: 18.97
• July 12, 2009: 21.13

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

• September 13, 2009: 20.72
• July 12, 2009: 26.05

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 13, 2009: 16.63
• July 12, 2009: 14.50

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

• September 13, 2009: 17.18
• July 12, 2009: 18.31

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

• September 13, 2009: 12.31
• July 12, 2009: 11.90

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

• September 13, 2009: 11.04
• July 12, 2009: 11.42

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

• September 13, 2009: 18.15
• July 12, 2009: 19.26

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

• September 13, 2009: 20.40
• July 12, 2009: 21.75

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 13, 2009: 14.24
• July 12, 2009: 12.91

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

• September 13, 2009: 17.55
• July 12, 2009: 19.09

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• September 13, 2009: 14.33
• July 12, 2009: 8.43

Summary: All Central Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. In general, according to the index numbers, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has decreased since July 12th.  And in general, the lower-priced home markets are currently healthy than the high-priced areas.

Chris Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics, had some comments on what the leading and lagging indicators of market recovery will be for this recession (AirTalk, Larry Mantle, August 7, 2009). (By the way, Tim Quinlan, a Wells Fargo analyst, says that the recession ended in June. Michael Murphy of New World Investor also says the recession is over. Maybe I’ll write more about that later.)

According to Thornberg, the following sectors of the economy are leading us to recovery:

• professional services
• export services

In addition, Thornberg states that, although the manufacturing sector is not growing, this sector  is “firming up.”

Before I go on to state what Thornberg sees as the sectors that will be the lagging indicators in this recovery, here is what Joel Kotkin, a fellow with the New America Foundation, says about the professional services sector:

Media coverage of America’s best jobs usually focuses on blue-collar sectors, like manufacturing, or elite ones, such as finance or technology. But if you’re seeking high-wage employment, your best bet lies in the massive “business and professional services” sector.

This unsung division of the economy is basically a mirror of any and all productive industry. It includes everything from human resources and administration to technical and scientific positions, as well as accounting, legal and architectural posts.–Joel Kotkin, “Best and Worst Cities for High Paying Jobs,” Forbes

Unfortunately for those of us who live in southern California, Forbes ranks Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale as the fourth worst area to find these jobs and the Irvine-Santa Ana-Anaheim area as the seventh worst.

Now for the lagging economic indicators: According to Thornberg, improvement in the following sectors of the economy will not show considerable improvement until sometime after the recovery has begun:

• construction
• finance
• retail

Thornberg, as well as most other economists, sees employment (which is a factor of all of the above mentioned economic sectors) as another lagging indicator. He also states that recovery in each sector will vary from region to region.

Note: For Beacon’s economic forecast, see Beaconomics.

GRAPH COURTESY BEACON ECONOMICS

Back in May, I wrote that the Altos Market Action Index numbers are showing the low-end of the Orange County housing market to be healthier than the high-end. An article by Kelli Hart in Sunday’s Orange County Register backs up the theory (”Luxury homes fall into slump“). It seems that the high-end of the housing market is going through something similar to what the low-end has experienced.

Hart gives these Real Data Strategies numbers:

From July 2008 to the end of June, home priced at $1 million and more received an average price reduction of 14.2 percent. By comparison, homes priced at $500,000 and less received an average price reduction of 7.6 percent.

And Hart quotes broker Phil Immel as saying:

“Last recession, in the early ’90s, oceanfront (houses) dropped 50 percent before stabilizing.”

Following are the current Altos Research index numbers for some of the high-end  Orange County housing markets. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. For comparison, Irvine is currently 18.01, and Costa Mesa is currently 17.70. And often criticized Santa Ana scores best with an index number of 20.53. Santa Ana’s current list price for a single-family home, according to Altos Research, is $326,573.

I also included, in bold, the current (August 16, 2009) Altos median list price for each of these housing markets.

Altos Market Action Indexes

• Corona Del Mar: $2,411,818 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 12.28
  August 16, 2009: 9.97
• Dana Point: $1,040,681 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 12.16
  August 16, 2009: 13.68
• Laguna Beach: $2,270,116 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 10.38
  August 16, 2009: 13.27
• Newport Beach: $1,948,468 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 10.11
  August 16, 2009: 9.80
• Newport Coast: $3,157,636 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 10.18
  August 16, 2009: 11.54
• Villa Park: $1,247,864 median list price
  May 22, 2009: 7.36
  August 16, 2009: 10.78

In yesterday’s post, I wrote about the Orange County ZIPs that had more foreclosure at this time that the same period one year ago. Today, I am going to highlight the Orange County ZIPs at the other end of the spectrum–OC ZIPs in which the number of foreclosures fell by 60% or more.

They are as follows: 92845 (Garden Grove), 92841 (Garden Grove), 92844 (Garden Grove), 92703 (Santa Ana), 92701 (Santa Ana), 92806 (Anaheim), 92782 (Tustin), 92676 (Silverado). Note that the housing in these ZIPs are mostly at the lower-end of the Orange County housing market.

Also, note these ZIPs that have the largest decrease in foreclosures when compared to last year do not necessarily have the fewest foreclosure. The percentage of distressed properties in these ZIPs, as shown by numbers from Trulia, gives an indication of this (see below).

92845 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $450,000 (however, the average list price is $459,221)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 59 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 67%*

92841 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $360,000 (however, the average list price is $384,205)
• 69 new and resell homes listed
• 204 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 74.7%*

92844 (Garden Grove)

• Median sold price: $255,000 (however, the average list price is $311,368)
• 56 new and resell homes listed
• 169 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75%*

92703 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $235,000 (however, the average list price is $211,449)
• 147 new and resell homes listed
• 411 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 73.7%*

92701 (Santa Ana)

• Median sold price: $130,000 (however, the average list price is $208,792)
• 148 new and resell homes listed
• 448 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 75.2%*

92806 (Anaheim)

• Median sold price: $360,100 (however, the average list price is $298,790)
• 74 new and resell homes listed
• 182 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 71%*

92782 (Tustin Ranch)

• Median sold price: $640,000 (however, the average list price is $807,847)
• 172 new and resell homes listed
• 108 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 38.6%*

92676 (Silverado)

• Median sold price: $349,000 (however, the average list price is $893,621)
• 29 new and resell homes listed
• 19 distressed properties
• % distressed properties: 39.6%*

*Trulia defines distressed properties as “homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process.”

Note: Different groups use different inputs and, therefore, come up with different percentages. For example, in June, Steve Thomas of Altera stated that Irvine had 29.6% distressed homes on the market. However, Trulia numbers at that time showed that Irvine had 41% distressed homes on the market.

Sources:

• “O.C. foreclosures plummeted in spring,” Matthew Padilla
• Trulia

The Orange County Assessor’s 2009-2010 Local Assessment Roles of Value shows that the value of the Orange County assessed tax roll (secured and unsecured) is over $418 billion. This is 1.2% or $5.2 billion lower than last year’s assessment roll. The Orange County assessment roll has been lower than the previous year only twice before.

However, not all cities will be receiving less of this tax revenue than they did last year. For example, unlike Santa Ana, both Costa Mesa and Irvine will receive more than they did the previous year; take a look at the city-by-city numbers as shown below. For additional Orange County property tax data, click here.

In the queue: more property tax information

Yesterday, we took a look at some housing market numbers for North Orange County. Today, we will take a look at how the Central Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 12, 2009. The Altos numbers are updated each week, so if you click on the Altos index numbers for each city, you will see the July 19 numbers (or the most recent index number). In most cases, the July 19 numbers show that  the market has retreated further into a buyers’s market in just this one week.

Also, note that the Altos numbers for Central Orange County show a similar story when it comes to the high-end and low-end of the housing market: Central Orange County cities with the highest-priced homes  have some of  the least favorable market index number (for example, Newport Beach, Villa Park and Los Alamitos). And the Central Orange County cities with lower-priced homes have some of the most favorable market index numbers (for example, Santa Ana). However, as shown by the numbers, the housing market in all of these cities is a buyers’ market.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name.

Note: The brown line in the graphs is the Altos Market Action Index 90-day median; the black line is the Altos Market Action Index 7-day median.

Costa Mesa:

• Altos Research Index–21.13
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

Fountain Valley:

• Altos Research Index–26.05
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

Huntington Beach:

• Altos Research Index–~14.50
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

Irvine:

• Altos Research Index–18.31
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

Los Alamitos:

• Altos Research Index–11.90
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

Newport Beach:

• Altos Research Index–11.42
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

Orange:

• Altos Research Index–19.26
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

Santa Ana:

• Altos Research Index–21.75
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

Seal Beach: 

• Altos Research Index–12.91
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

Tustin:

• Altos Research Index–19.09
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

Villa Park:

• Altos Research Index–8.43
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%