Sweet Orange

Here is an interesting factoid: Irvine housing is general accepted as being more expensive than many surrounding areas, including Costa Mesa. However, Redfin shows that in September Costa Mesa houses sold for $403 per square foot, and Irvine houses sold for a lesser amount–$338 per square foot to be exact. However, when it comes to condos Irvine wins in the more expensive category (Irvine–$318/SF; Costa Mesa–$217/SF).

I should also point out that many of the Irvine homes have HOA fees and, in some cases, Mellos Roos taxes. Since Costa Mesa has a substantial number of older homes, these fees are less prevalent in Costa Mesa. This should all be factored in when determining housing costs.

Something else to factor in: The percentage of homes in Irvine that are condos is much higher than is true in Costa Mesa. Approximately 60% of Irvine homes that are currently on the market are condos, whereas approximately 35% of Costa Mesa homes that are currently on the market are condos.

Here are some numbers for cities adjacent to Irvine. Note that the Tustin-compared-to-Irvine numbers tell a story that is similar to the Costa Mesa-compared-to-Irvine numbers:

• Tustin: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF (approximately 50% condos)
• Lake Forest: house–$276/SF; condo–$254/SF (approximately 40% condos)
• Newport Beach: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF (approximately 30% condos)

I will follow up on this next week by taking a look at an Irvine house with a listing price that is near the Irvine median price per square foot and a Costa Mesa house with a listing price that is near the Costa Mesa median price per square foot.

2960 Champion Way #405 Tustin, CA 92782

• Asking price: $190,000 ($342/SF)
• What: 1992 condo with 1bed/1bath
• Size: 556 SF
• HOA fee: $271 per month

This condo, a short sale, was listed in July for $159,000. Earlier this month, the asking price was increased by $31,000. This brings the current list price to $190,000 or $342 per square foot.

There could be a couple of reasons for this increase: The bank didn’t agree to this Tustin Ranch homeowner’s original list price for this short sale. Or the homeowner read some reports that housing prices have gone up recently, and thought that they could get a higher price. I am guessing the former.

Is this a reasonable price in the current market and considering that nearby listings are asking less? Maybe, the current listing states that backup offers are being accepted. We’ll see if the owners got the full asking price or something less. I’ll keep an eye on the public records to see what the final sales price is.

Nearby listings that also are one bedroom/one bath and have 556 square feet. (And are also short sales.)

• 2960 Champion Way #1504: Asking price–$169,900 ($306/SF)
• 2960 Champion Way #2105: Asking price–$179,900 ($322/SF)

In addition, 2960 Champion Way #2405 sold for $150,000 on March 19, 2009. In May 2008, the asking price was $254,500. This was under a different MLS number.

Listing history for 2960 Champion Way #405 under the current MLS number (CARETS #U9003095):

• October 8, 2009–Price Changed $190,000
• October 8, 2009–Relisted
• July 9, 2009–Listed $159,000
• January 15, 1993–Sold $88,000

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached houses only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of hones in each city that are detached houses. The Redfin numbers are for both houses and condos.

To see additional information from Redfin including which homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold for recently, click on the Redfin link. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the Altos Research link.

Summary: Once again, the markets for all Central Orange County housing are buyers’ markets. However, according to the Altos index numbers, the Central Orange County housing market is stronger than it was in September. And in general, according to the index numbers, the lower-priced home markets are stronger than the high-priced areas. For example, compare Newport Beach, Seal Beach and Villa Park Altos index numbers to the Santa Ana index number.

One more point on the Altos index numbers for Central Orange County cities: Seal Beach showed the least movement since last month, and Los Alamitos showed the biggest increase. correction made 10-21-09 sw

Following are some recent Altos Research and Redfin numbers for the Central Orange County housing market:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 20.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.97
  July 12, 2009: 21.13
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $570,626
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$403/SF; condo–$217/SF

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–80%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 23.86
  September 13, 2009: 20.72
  July 12, 2009: 26.05
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $598,615
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$307/SF; condo–$304/SF

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–70%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 17.86
  September 13, 2009: 16.63
  July 12, 2009: 14.50
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $770,762
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$344/SF; condo–$344/SF

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–45%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 19.21
  September 13, 2009: 17.18
  July 12, 2009: 18.31
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $863,177
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$338/SF; condo–$318/SF

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–75%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 16.83
  September 13, 2009: 12.31
  July 12, 2009: 11.90
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $860,346
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$260/SF; condo–$275/SF

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 13.61
  September 13, 2009: 11.04
  July 12, 2009: 11.42
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $1,998,992
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$789/SF; condo–$504/SF

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–85%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 19.96
  September 13, 2009: 18.15
  July 12, 2009: 19.26
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $552,197
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$254/SF; condo–$213/SF

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–65%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 23.04
  September 13, 2009: 20.40
  July 12, 2009: 21.75
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $339,523
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$236/SF; condo–$103/SF

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–25%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 14.89
  September 13, 2009: 14.24
  July 12, 2009: 12.91
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $980,553
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$398/SF; condo–$592/SF

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–50%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 20.18
  September 13, 2009: 17.55
  July 12, 2009: 19.09
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $629,922
• Redfin median sold price:
  September 2009: house–$372/SF; condo–$156/SF

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• Altos Research Market Index Number:
  October 18, 2009: 16.09
  September 13, 2009: 14.33
  July 12, 2009: 8.43
• Altos median list price for detached house:
  October 18, 2009: $1,202,962
• Redfin median sold price
  September 2009: house–$376/SF; condo–n/a

Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also, these Altos Research numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name. To see additional Altos Research numbers for each city, click on the index number for each city.

Altos Market Action Index for Central Orange County cities, week ending on September 13, 2009:

Costa Mesa: approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

• September 13, 2009: 18.97
• July 12, 2009: 21.13

Fountain Valley: approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

• September 13, 2009: 20.72
• July 12, 2009: 26.05

Huntington Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

• September 13, 2009: 16.63
• July 12, 2009: 14.50

Irvine: approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

• September 13, 2009: 17.18
• July 12, 2009: 18.31

Los Alamitos: approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

• September 13, 2009: 12.31
• July 12, 2009: 11.90

Newport Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

• September 13, 2009: 11.04
• July 12, 2009: 11.42

Orange: approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

• September 13, 2009: 18.15
• July 12, 2009: 19.26

Santa Ana: approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

• September 13, 2009: 20.40
• July 12, 2009: 21.75

Seal Beach: approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

• September 13, 2009: 14.24
• July 12, 2009: 12.91

Tustin: approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

• September 13, 2009: 17.55
• July 12, 2009: 19.09

Villa Park: approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

• September 13, 2009: 14.33
• July 12, 2009: 8.43

Summary: All Central Orange County housing markets are buyers’ markets. In general, according to the index numbers, the health of the Central Orange County housing market has decreased since July 12th.  And in general, the lower-priced home markets are currently healthy than the high-priced areas.

Yesterday, we took a look at some housing market numbers for North Orange County. Today, we will take a look at how the Central Orange County housing market for detached homes is doing as shown by the Altos Market Action Index. The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words, the balance between supply and demand.  Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market.

Note that the Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included). For this reason, I have included numbers that show the percentage of home in each city that are detached. The index numbers listed below are as reported by Altos Research on July 12, 2009. The Altos numbers are updated each week, so if you click on the Altos index numbers for each city, you will see the July 19 numbers (or the most recent index number). In most cases, the July 19 numbers show that  the market has retreated further into a buyers’s market in just this one week.

Also, note that the Altos numbers for Central Orange County show a similar story when it comes to the high-end and low-end of the housing market: Central Orange County cities with the highest-priced homes  have some of  the least favorable market index number (for example, Newport Beach, Villa Park and Los Alamitos). And the Central Orange County cities with lower-priced homes have some of the most favorable market index numbers (for example, Santa Ana). However, as shown by the numbers, the housing market in all of these cities is a buyers’ market.

To see what homes are currently on the market as well as what homes have sold recently, click on the city name.

Note: The brown line in the graphs is the Altos Market Action Index 90-day median; the black line is the Altos Market Action Index 7-day median.

Costa Mesa:

• Altos Research Index–21.13
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–72%

Fountain Valley:

• Altos Research Index–26.05
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–81%

Huntington Beach:

• Altos Research Index–~14.50
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–69%

Irvine:

• Altos Research Index–18.31
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–43%

Los Alamitos:

• Altos Research Index–11.90
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–77%

Newport Beach:

• Altos Research Index–11.42
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–67%

Orange:

• Altos Research Index–19.26
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–86%

Santa Ana:

• Altos Research Index–21.75
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–64%

Seal Beach: 

• Altos Research Index–12.91
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–26%

Tustin:

• Altos Research Index–19.09
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–51%

Villa Park:

• Altos Research Index–8.43
• approximate % homes on market that are detached–100%

Orange County schools, as well as most schools nationwide, have been hoping that money from the American Recovery and Investment Act will help with budget shortfalls that are the result of our current economic difficulties. The following help is on the way for California schools: $2.56 billion for the school districts general funds will be delivered soon. $1.2 billion for special education and Title I will be delivered in a few weeks, and 1 billion for the school districts general funds will be delivered in the fall.

Orange County schools will receive in total $125.6 million in stimulus funds this month. The funding per district school is determined by the amount of budget cuts in each district.

So what are we to make of the fact that Newport-Mesa Unified School District, which includes both Costa Mesa and Newport Beach, is set to get zero stimulus money? The only other Orange County school district that will receive no stimulus money is high-income Laguna Beach.  Santa Ana Unified School District, one of the lowest-income districts in Orange County, will receive $14,320,048, which is the largest amount of the stimulus money going to any Orange County school district.

 Is the Newport-Mesa School District so financial sound that budget cuts were not necessary, or were other factors involved? If you have any insight on this, please leave a comment.

Note: The schools that serve Irvine will receive the following amounts: Irvine Unified School District, $2,936,940; Tustin Unified School District, $5,642,231. For a full list of the stimulus money that each Orange County school district will receive see “Money coming to schools.”

PHOTO COURTESY GREAT SCHOOLS